Predictive and prescriptive analysis: Theoretical aspects

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 1243-1255
Author(s):  
V.G. Kogdenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prescriptive Analysis

Prescriptive portfolio selection: a compromise between fast and slow thinking

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 98-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omid Momen ◽  
Akbar Esfahanipour ◽  
Abbas Seifi
Keyword(s):  
Portfolio Selection ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Efficient Frontier ◽  
Fast System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Selection For ◽  
Mean Variance ◽  
Prescriptive Analysis

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a prescriptive portfolio selection (PPS) model based on a compromise between the idea of “fast” and “slow” thinking proposed by Kahneman. Design/methodology/approach“Fast” thinking is effortless and comfortable for investors, while “slow” thinking may result in better performance. These two systems are related to the first two types of analysis in the decision theory: descriptive, normative and prescriptive analysis. However, to compromise between “fast” and “slow” thinking, “overconfidence” is used as a weighting parameter. A case study including a sample of 161 active investors in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) is provided. Moreover, the feasibility and optimality of the model are discussed. FindingsResults show that the PPS recommendations are efficient with a shift from the mean-variance efficient frontier; investors prefer PPS portfolios over the advisor recommendations; and investors have no significant preference between PPS and their own expectations. Research limitations/implicationsTwo assumptions of this study include: first, investors follow their “fast” system of thinking by themselves. Second, the investors’ “slow” system of thinking is represented by advisor recommendations which are simple expected value of risk and return. Therefore, considering these two assumptions for any application is the main limitation of this study. Moreover, the authors did not have access to more investors in TSE or other financial markets. Originality/valueThis is the first study that includes overconfidence in modeling portfolio selection for the purpose of achieving a portfolio that has a reasonable performance and one that investors are comfortable with.

scholarly journals A Study of Prescriptive Analysis Framework for Human Care Services Based On CKAN Cloud

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jangwon Gim ◽  
Sukhoon Lee ◽  
Wonkyun Joo
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Technological Advancement ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Data Interoperability ◽  
Care Services ◽  
Smart Healthcare ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Prescriptive Analysis

A number of sensor devices are widely distributed and used today owing to the accelerated development of IoT technology. In particular, this technological advancement has allowed users to carry IoT devices with more convenience and efficiency. Based on the IoT sensor data, studies are being actively carried out to recognize the current situation or to analyze and predict future events. However, research for existing smart healthcare services is focused on analyzing users’ behavior from single sensor data and is also focused on analyzing and diagnosing the current situation of the users. Therefore, a method for effectively managing and integrating a large amount of IoT sensor data has become necessary, and a framework considering data interoperability has become necessary. In addition, an analysis framework is needed not only to provide the analysis of the users’ environment and situation from the integrated data, but also to provide guide information to predict future events and to take appropriate action by users. In this paper, we propose a prescriptive analysis framework using a 5W1H method based on CKAN cloud. Through the CKAN cloud environment, IoT sensor data stored in individual CKANs can be integrated based on common concepts. As a result, it is possible to generate an integrated knowledge graph considering interoperability of data, and the underlying data is used as the base data for prescriptive analysis. In addition, the proposed prescriptive analysis framework can diagnose the situation of the users through analysis of user environment information and supports users’ decision making by recommending the possible behavior according to the coming situation of the users. We have verified the applicability of the 5W1H prescriptive analysis framework based on the use case of collecting and analyzing data obtained from various IoT sensors.

scholarly journals The Urgency of Village Mediation Institution as a Mechanism for Dispute Resolution: The Case of Wukirsari Village in the Special Region of Yogyakarta

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilham Yuli Isdiyanto ◽  
Anom Wahyu Asmorojati
Keyword(s):  
Dispute Resolution ◽  
Legal Basis ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Status ◽  
Village Government ◽  
Dispute Resolution Mechanism ◽  
Village Society ◽  
The Village ◽  
Prescriptive Analysis ◽  
Special Region

This research discusses an important issue in the rural administration, that is the urgency of institution transformation of the status and position of the Village Head in dispute resolution among villagers. The purpose of this research is to highlight the urgency of institutionalization of dispute resolution through the Village Mediation Institution. The first concern is to find the status and legal basis of the Institution; the second is to describe the urgency of establishing this institution as a dispute resolution mechanism among villagers; and the third is to build the model or system that matches with the condition in Wukirsari. The research method used was a normative-empirical-concept and the data were analyzed qualitatively to be presented as a descriptive-prescriptive analysis. The result of this research shows that there is an urgency for Wukirsari Village government to form a Village Mediation Institution due to socio-geographic considerations and also as an implementation of Article 26 paragraph (4) letter K of Village Law No. 6 of 2014. The Village Mediation Institution in Wukirsari Village should consist of a balance composition between the elements of Village Government and professionals so that it will become an effective and efficient institution in resolving disputes among the members of Wukirsari Village society.

scholarly journals JANOS: An Integrated Predictive and Prescriptive Modeling Framework

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Bergman ◽  
Teng Huang ◽  
Philip Brooks ◽  
Andrea Lodi ◽  
Arvind U. Raghunathan
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Modeling ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
Optimization Model ◽  
Software Tool ◽  
Linear Transformations ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Decision Variables ◽  
Prescriptive Model ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Prescriptive Analysis

Business research practice is witnessing a surge in the integration of predictive modeling and prescriptive analysis. We describe a modeling framework JANOS that seamlessly integrates the two streams of analytics, allowing researchers and practitioners to embed machine learning models in an end-to-end optimization framework. JANOS allows for specifying a prescriptive model using standard optimization modeling elements such as constraints and variables. The key novelty lies in providing modeling constructs that enable the specification of commonly used predictive models within an optimization model, have the features of the predictive model as variables in the optimization model, and incorporate the output of the predictive models as part of the objective. The framework considers two sets of decision variables: regular and predicted. The relationship between the regular and the predicted variables is specified by the user as pretrained predictive models. JANOS currently supports linear regression, logistic regression, and neural network with rectified linear activation functions. In this paper, we demonstrate the flexibility of the framework through an example on scholarship allocation in a student enrollment problem and provide a numeric performance evaluation. Summary of Contribution. This paper describes a new software tool, JANOS, that integrates predictive modeling and discrete optimization to assist decision making. Specifically, the proposed solver takes as input user-specified pretrained predictive models and formulates optimization models directly over those predictive models by embedding them within an optimization model through linear transformations.

scholarly journals Perlindungan Hukum Terhadap Notaris dalam Pelaksanaan Jabatan Notaris Berdasarkan Teori Keseimbangan Berbasis Keadilan

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Khairunnisa Noor Asufie ◽  
Ali Impron
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Research Method ◽  
Competent Authority ◽  
Legal Protection ◽  
Public Official ◽  
Public Officials ◽  
Conceptual Approach ◽  
Principle Of Proportionality ◽  
Two Sides ◽  
Prescriptive Analysis

<span>Notary has two sides were attached, namely as an individual Indonesian citizens and public officials appointed by the competent authority. As a Notary as a holder of the office of Notary who performs duties as a public official appointed by an authorized official. Notary as an individual has a position as an Indonesian Citizen based on his personal identity as an Indonesian Citizen. The legal protection provided to the Notary is based on the position of the Notary as a public official appointed by an authorized public official, not legal protection as an individual Indonesian Citizen. Although the two are attached together but related to legal protection, there is a separation of the two positions. Legal protection of Notaries as individual Indonesian Citizens has been regulated by regulations already in Indonesia and related to the human rights of individual Indonesian Citizens while legal protection of Notaries as public officials is a topic of discussion that will be discussed further. Discuss the legal protection for Notaries in the performance of their duties by reviewing based on the principle of proportionality. Legal protection for Notaries in the performance of their office is now something important because many Notaries are criminalized in the performance of their office. The research method used for this research is normative research. This research is a <em>prescriptive analysis. </em>In this research, using the approach, the approach of legislation <em>(Statue Approach)</em> and conceptual approach (<em>Conceptual Approach</em>).</span>

The Future of the Sovereignty Game

2021 ◽  
pp. 164-176
Author(s):  
Ryan D. Griffiths
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Statics ◽  
Expected Frequency ◽  
International Recognition ◽  
The Future ◽  
New States ◽  
State Consent ◽  
Independence Movements ◽  
Prescriptive Analysis

This chapter concludes with a theoretical and prescriptive analysis of the future of the sovereignty game. It highlights several past configurations of the international recognition regime, and identifies three potential future configurations that focus on remedial rights, primary rights, and state consent. The chapter also discusses the comparative statics of each configuration — that is, the expected frequency of secession, conflict, and the fitness of new states as a result of the regime. The chapter then shifts to a more prescriptive analysis of how the game might be improved. It argues, with caution, for the merits of a regime that emphasizes consent-based democratized secession, in which independence movements have formal institutional access but where the conditions for political exit are nevertheless hard to reach. The resulting benefits for the sovereignty game are that conflict would be reduced both within and between states. Ultimately, the chapter details the potential critiques of the study, noting that the proposal says nothing about the importance of a remedial right and maintained that it is quite difficult to implement.

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