scholarly journals Simulating past and future mass balance of Place Glacier using a physically-based, distributed glacier mass balance model

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raju Aryal
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Physically Based

scholarly journals Development of a Water and Enthalpy Budget-based Glacier mass balance Model (WEB-GM) and its preliminary validation

2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 3146-3178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baohong Ding ◽  
Kun Yang ◽  
Wei Yang ◽  
Xiaobo He ◽  
Yingying Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Preliminary Validation

scholarly journals Solar radiation, cloudiness and longwave radiation over low-latitude glaciers: implications for mass-balance modelling

2009 ◽  
Vol 55 (190) ◽  
pp. 292-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Mölg ◽  
Nicolas J. Cullen ◽  
Georg Kaser
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Peruvian Andes ◽  
Tropical Glaciers ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Radiation Parameterizations

AbstractBroadband radiation schemes (parameterizations) are commonly used tools in glacier mass-balance modelling, but their performance at high altitude in the tropics has not been evaluated in detail. Here we take advantage of a high-quality 2 year record of global radiation (G ) and incoming longwave radiation (L ↓) measured on Kersten Glacier, Kilimanjaro, East Africa, at 5873 m a.s.l., to optimize parameterizations of G and L ↓. We show that the two radiation terms can be related by an effective cloud-cover fraction neff , so G or L ↓ can be modelled based on neff derived from measured L ↓ or G, respectively. At neff = 1, G is reduced to 35% of clear-sky G, and L ↓ increases by 45–65% (depending on altitude) relative to clear-sky L ↓. Validation for a 1 year dataset of G and L ↓ obtained at 4850 m on Glaciar Artesonraju, Peruvian Andes, yields a satisfactory performance of the radiation scheme. Whether this performance is acceptable for mass-balance studies of tropical glaciers is explored by applying the data from Glaciar Artesonraju to a physically based mass-balance model, which requires, among others, G and L ↓ as forcing variables. Uncertainties in modelled mass balance introduced by the radiation parameterizations do not exceed those that can be caused by errors in the radiation measurements. Hence, this paper provides a tool for inclusion in spatially distributed mass-balance modelling of tropical glaciers and/or extension of radiation data when only G or L ↓ is measured.

scholarly journals The response of two Icelandic glaciers to climatic warming computed with a degree-day glacier mass-balance model coupled to a dynamic glacier model

1997 ◽  
Vol 43 (144) ◽  
pp. 321-327 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tómas Jóhannesson
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Hydroelectric Power ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
Warming Rate

AbstractA degree-day glacier mass-balance model is coupled to a dynamic glacier model for temperate glaciers. The model is calibrated for two outlet glaciers from the Hofsjökull ice cap in central Iceland. It is forced with a climate scenario that has recently been defined for the Nordic countries for the purpose of outlining the hydrological consequences of future greenhouse warming. The scenario for Iceland specifies a warming rate of 0.25°C per decade in mid-summer and 0.35°C per decade in mid-winter with a sinusoidal variation through the year. The volume of the glaciers is predicted to decrease by approximately 40% over the next century, and the glaciers essentially disappear during the next 200 years. Runoff from the area that is presently covered by the glaciers is predicted to increase by approximately 0.5 m a−1 30 years from now due to the reduction in the volume of the glaciers. The runoff increase reaches a flat maximum of 1.5–2.0 m a−1 100–150 years from now and levels off after that. The predicted runoff increase leads to a significant increase in the discharge of rivers fed by meltwater from the outlet glaciers of the ice cap and may have important consequences for the operation and planning of hydroelectric power plants in Iceland.

scholarly journals Forcing a Distributed Glacier Mass Balance Model with the Regional Climate Model REMO. Part I: Climate Model Evaluation

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 1589-1606 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sven Kotlarski ◽  
Frank Paul ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balance Model

Abstract A coupling interface between the regional climate model REMO and a distributed glacier mass balance model is presented in a series of two papers. The first part describes and evaluates the reanalysis-driven regional climate simulation that is used to force a mass balance model for two glaciers of the Swiss mass balance network. The detailed validation of near-surface air temperature, precipitation, and global radiation for the European Alps shows that the basic spatial and temporal patterns of all three parameters are reproduced by REMO. Compared to the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) dataset, the Alpine mean temperature is underestimated by 0.34°C. Annual precipitation shows a positive bias of 17% (30%) with respect to the uncorrected gridded ALP-IMP (CRU) dataset. A number of important and systematic model biases arise in high-elevation regions, namely, a negative temperature bias in winter, a bias of seasonal precipitation (positive or negative, depending on gridbox altitude and season), and an underestimation of springtime and overestimation of summertime global radiation. These can be expected to have a strong effect on the simulated glacier mass balance. It is recommended to account for these shortcomings by applying correction procedures before using the RCM output for subsequent mass balance modeling. Despite the obvious model deficiencies in high-elevation regions, the new interface broadens the scope of application of glacier mass balance models and will allow for a straightforward assessment of future climate change impacts.

scholarly journals Modelling 60 years of glacier mass balance and runoff for Chhota Shigri Glacier, Western Himalaya, Northern India

2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (240) ◽  
pp. 618-628 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARKUS ENGELHARDT ◽  
AL. RAMANATHAN ◽  
TRUDE EIDHAMMER ◽  
PANKAJ KUMAR ◽  
OSKAR LANDGREN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Global Radiation ◽  
Western Himalaya ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Melt ◽  
Chhota Shigri Glacier

ABSTRACTGlacier mass balance and runoff are simulated from 1955 to 2014 for the catchment (46% glacier cover) containing Chhota Shigri Glacier (Western Himalaya) using gridded data from three regional climate models: (1) the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model v.4 (RCA4); (2) the REgional atmosphere MOdel (REMO); and (3) the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The input data are downscaled to the simulation grid (300 m) and calibrated with point measurements of temperature and precipitation. Additional input is daily potential global radiation calculated using a DEM at a resolution of 30 m. The mass-balance model calculates daily snow accumulation, melt and runoff. The model parameters are calibrated with available mass-balance measurements and results are validated with geodetic measurements, other mass-balance model results and run-off measurements. Simulated annual mass balances slightly decreased from −0.3 m w.e. a−1 (1955–99) to −0.6 m w.e. a−1 for 2000–14. For the same periods, mean runoff increased from 2.0 m3 s−1 (1955–99) to 2.4 m3 s−1 (2000–14) with glacier melt contributing about one-third to the runoff. Monthly runoff increases are greatest in July, due to both increased snow and glacier melt, whereas slightly decreased snowmelt in August and September was more than compensated by increased glacier melt.

scholarly journals Mass-balance model parameter transferability on a tropical glacier

2013 ◽  
Vol 59 (217) ◽  
pp. 845-858 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Gurgiser ◽  
Thomas Mölg ◽  
Lindsey Nicholson ◽  
Georg Kaser
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
The Other ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Ablation Zone ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Cumulative Mass

AbstractWe explore the small-scale spatial and temporal transferability of model parameters between two points in the ablation zone of tropical Glaciar Shallap, Cordillera Blanca, Peru (9°S, −77° W; ∼4800 m a.s.l.) in order to provide a robust assessment of the performance of a process-based glacier mass-balance model. Relative surface height change is calculated at hourly time-steps, and cumulative values are compared to surface height measurements made at irregular intervals (14–64 days) over the course of two continuous hydrological years (August 2006–August 2008). Best-performing parameter combinations were determined for each point from the outcome of 1000 model simulations for which parameters were varied randomly within a defined range. With these parameter combinations measurements for a specific location and time-span are well reproduced. Transferring the parameter combination as optimized for one location to the other location in the ablation zone increases the errors of modeled cumulative mass balance by 5–1326 mm ice eq.a−1. Transferring the parameter combinations as optimized for one year to the other year increases the modeled errors in cumulative mass balance by 18–3179 mm ice eq.a−1. Model errors generally increase during periods with frequent snowfall and snow cover. This could reflect either the inherent difficulty of modeling complex snow processes, or the inability of the model to correctly capture the pattern of albedo evolution at this site. The magnitude of errors associated with parameter transfer in space and time highlights the need for improving model performance for robust climatological and/or hydrological analyses on tropical glaciers.

scholarly journals Measured and modelled sublimation on the tropical Glaciar Artesonraju, Perú

2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 737-758
Author(s):  
M. Winkler ◽  
I. Juen ◽  
T. Mölg ◽  
G. Kaser
Keyword(s):  
Surface Roughness ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Strong Dependence ◽  
High Surface ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balance Model

Abstract. Sublimation plays a decisive role in the surface energy balance of tropical glaciers. During the dry season low specific humidity and high surface roughness favour the direct transition from ice to vapour and drastically reduce the energy available for melting. However, field measurements are scarce and little is known about the performance of sublimation parametrisations in glacier mass balance and runoff models. During 15 days in August 2005 sublimation was measured on the tongue of Glaciar Artesonraju (8°58' S, 77°38' W) in the Cordillera Blanca, Perú, using simple lysimeters. Indicating a strong dependence on surface roughness, daily totals of sublimation range from 1–3 kg m−2 for smooth to 2–5 kg m−2 for rough conditions. Measured sublimation was related to characteristic surface roughness lengths for momentum (zm) and for the scalar quantities of temperature and water vapour (zs), using a process-based mass balance model. Input data were provided by automatic weather stations, situated on the glacier tongue at 4750 m ASL and 4810 m ASL, respectively. Under smooth conditions the combination zm=2.0 mm and zs=1.0 mm appeared to be most appropriate, for rough conditions zm=20.0 mm and zs=10.0 mm fitted best. Extending the sublimation record from April 2004 to December 2005 with the process-based model confirms, that sublimation shows a clear seasonality. 60–90% of the energy available for ablation is consumed by sublimation in the dry season, but only 10–15% in the wet season. The findings are finally used to evaluate the parametrisation of sublimation in the lower-complexity mass balance model ITGG, which has the advantage of requiring precipitation and air temperature as only input data. It turns out that the implementation of mean wind speed is a possible improvement for the representation of sublimation in the ITGG model.

scholarly journals Degree-day glacier mass-balance modelling with applications to glaciers in Iceland, Norway and Greenland

1995 ◽  
Vol 41 (138) ◽  
pp. 345-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tómas Jóhannesson ◽  
Oddur Sigurdsson ◽  
Tron Laumann ◽  
Michael Kennett
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Temperature Lapse Rate ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Firm Evidence ◽  
Good Agreement

AbstractA degree-day glacier mass-balance model is applied to three glaciers in Iceland, Norway and Greenland for which detailed mass-balance measurements are available over a period of several years. Model results are in good agreement with measured variations in the mass balance with elevation over the time periods considered for each glacier. In addition, the model explains 60-80% of the year-to-year variance in the elevation-averaged summer season mass-balance measurements on the glaciers, using a single parameter set for each glacier.The increase in ablation on the glaciers due to a warming of 2° C is predicted to range from about 1 m w.e. year−1 at the highest elevations to about 2.5 m w.e. year−1 at the lowest elevations. Predicted changes in the winter balance (measured between fixed date) are relatively small, except at the lowest elevations on the Icelandic and Norwegian glaciers where the winter balance is significantly reduced. Equilibrium-line altitudes are raised by 200-300 m on the Icelandic and Norwegian glaciers. Except at the highest elevations, the winter balance of the Icelandic and Norwegian glaciers is predicted to decrease even if the warming is accompanied by a 10% increase in the precipitation.No firm evidence of a climate-related variation in the degree-day factors or in the temperature lapse rate on the same glacier could be found. The model, furthermore, reproduces large variations in the mass balance with elevation and from year to year on each glacier using the same parameter set. We assume, therefore, that these parameters will not change significantly for the climate scenarios considered here.

scholarly journals Modelled glacier equilibrium line altitudes during the mid-Holocene in the southern mid-latitudes

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1575-1586 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Bravo ◽  
M. Rojas ◽  
B. M. Anderson ◽  
A. N. Mackintosh ◽  
E. Sagredo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Equilibrium Line ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Climate Conditions

Abstract. Glacier behaviour during the mid-Holocene (MH, 6000 years BP) in the Southern Hemisphere provides observational data to constrain our understanding of the origin and propagation of palaeoclimate signals. In this study we examine the climatic forcing of glacier response in the MH by evaluating modelled glacier equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) and climatic conditions during the MH compared with pre-industrial time (PI, year 1750). We focus on the middle latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, specifically Patagonia and the South Island of New Zealand. Climate conditions for the MH were obtained from PMIP2 model simulations, which in turn were used to force a simple glacier mass balance model to simulate changes in ELA. In Patagonia, the models simulate colder conditions during the MH in austral summer (−0.2 °C), autumn (−0.5 °C), and winter (−0.4), and warmer temperatures (0.2 °C) during spring. In the Southern Alps the models show colder MH conditions in autumn (−0.7 °C) and winter (−0.4 °C), warmer conditions in spring (0.3 °C), and no significant change in summer temperature. Precipitation does not show significant changes but exhibits a seasonal shift, with less precipitation from April to September and more precipitation from October to April during the MH in both regions. The mass balance model simulates a climatic ELA that is 15–33 m lower during the MH compared with PI conditions. We suggest that the main causes of this difference are driven mainly by colder temperatures associated with the MH simulation. Differences in temperature have a dual effect on glacier mass balance: (i) less energy is available for ablation during summer and early autumn and (ii) lower temperatures cause more precipitation to fall as snow rather than rain in late autumn and winter, resulting in more accumulation and higher surface albedo. For these reasons, we postulate that the modelled ELA changes, although small, may help to explain larger glacier extents observed by 6000 years BP in South America and New Zealand.

scholarly journals Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 3661-3677 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. F. Lutz ◽  
W. W. Immerzeel ◽  
A. Gobiet ◽  
F. Pellicciotti ◽  
M. F. P. Bierkens
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Mass Balance Model ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5) and, for comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). With these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July–September) while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October–February). However, the model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability uncertain.

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