scholarly journals Modelling freedom from disease - how do we compare between countries?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rowland R. Kao
Keyword(s):  
Freedom From Disease

scholarly journals Analysis of German BSE Surveillance Data: Estimation of the Prevalence of Confirmed Cases versus the Number of Infected, but Non-Detected, Cattle to Assess Confidence in Freedom from Infection

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (19) ◽  
pp. 9966
Author(s):  
Matthias Greiner ◽  
Thomas Selhorst ◽  
Anne Balkema-Buschmann ◽  
Wesley O. Johnson ◽  
Christine Müller-Graf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Chain ◽  
Gompertz Model ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Point Estimate ◽  
Surveillance Program ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
Freedom From Disease ◽  
Data Estimation

Quantitative risk assessments for Bovine pongiform ncephalopathy (BSE) necessitate estimates for key parameters such as the prevalence of infection, the probability of absence of infection in defined birth cohorts, and the numbers of BSE-infected, but non-detected cattle entering the food chain. We estimated three key parameters with adjustment for misclassification using the German BSE surveillance data using a Gompertz model for latent (i.e. unobserved) age-dependent detection probabilities and a Poisson response model for the number of BSE cases for birth cohorts 1999 to 2015. The models were combined in a Bayesian framework. We estimated the median true BSE prevalence between 3.74 and 0.216 cases per 100,000 animals for the birth cohorts 1990 to 2001 and observed a peak for the 1996 birth cohort with a point estimate of 16.41 cases per 100,000 cattle. For birth cohorts ranging from 2002 to 2013, the estimated median prevalence was below one case per 100,000 heads. The calculated confidence in freedom from disease (design prevalence 1 in 100,000) was above 99.5% for the birth cohorts 2002 to 2006. In conclusion, BSE surveillance in the healthy slaughtered cattle chain was extremely sensitive at the time, when BSE repeatedly occurred in Germany (2000–2009), because the entry of BSE-infected cattle into the food chain could virtually be prevented by the extensive surveillance program during these years and until 2015 (estimated non-detected cases/100.000 [95% credible interval] in 2000, 2009, and 2015 are 0.64 [0.5,0.8], 0.05 [0.01,0.14], and 0.19 [0.05,0.61], respectively).

Preliminary Results of ‘Liver-First' Reverse Management for Advanced and Aggressive Synchronous Colorectal Liver Metastases: A Propensity-Matched Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuniya Tanaka ◽  
Takashi Murakami ◽  
Kenichi Matsuo ◽  
Yukihiko Hiroshima ◽  
Itaru Endo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Liver Metastases ◽  
Colorectal Liver Metastases ◽  
Classical Group ◽  
Tumor Burden ◽  
Oncologic Outcomes ◽  
Colorectal Metastases ◽  
Second Resection ◽  
Freedom From Disease ◽  
Synchronous Colorectal Liver Metastases ◽  
Recurrence Sites

Background: Although a ‘liver-first' approach recently has been advocated in treating synchronous colorectal metastases, little is known about how results compare with those of the classical approach among patients with similar grades of liver metastases. Methods: Propensity-score matching was used to select study subjects. Oncologic outcomes were compared between 10 consecutive patients with unresectable advanced and aggressive synchronous colorectal liver metastases treated with the reverse strategy and 30 comparable classically treated patients. Results: Numbers of recurrence sites and recurrent tumors irrespective of recurrence sites were greater in the reverse group then the classic group (p = 0.003 and p = 0.015, respectively). Rates of freedom from recurrence in the remaining liver and of freedom from disease also were poorer in the reverse group than in the classical group (p = 0.009 and p = 0.043, respectively). Among patients treated with 2-stage hepatectomy, frequency of microvascular invasion surrounding macroscopic metastases at second resection was higher in the reverse group than in the classical group (p = 0.011). Conclusions: Reverse approaches may be feasible in treating synchronous liver metastases, but that strategy should be limited to patients with less liver tumor burden.

Short-term freedom from disease progression after I-125 prostate implantation

1994 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 405-409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kent Wallner ◽  
Jitendra Roy ◽  
Michael Zelefsky ◽  
Zvi Fuks ◽  
Louis Harrison
Keyword(s):  
Disease Progression ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Freedom From Disease

Two-stage sampling in surveys to substantiate freedom from disease

1998 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angus R. Cameron ◽  
F.Chris Baldock
Keyword(s):  
Two Stage ◽  
Freedom From Disease
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