scholarly journals Developing scenarios of atmosphere, weather and climate for northern regions

1996 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 235-249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy R. Carter
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Research Programme ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Study Region

Future changes in atmospheric composition and consequent global and regional climate change are of increasing concern to policy makers, planners and the public. However, predictions of these changes are uncertain. In the absence of single, firm predictions, the next best approach is to identify sets of plausible future conditions termed scenarios. This paper focuses on the development of climate change scenarios for northern high latitude regions. Three methods of scenario development can be identified; use of analogues having conditions similar to those expected in the study region, application of general circulation model results, and composite methods that combine information from different sources. A composite approach has been used to produce scenarios of temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide and sea-level change for Finland up to 2100, as part of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU). Tools for applying these scenarios in impact assessment studies, including stochastic weather generators and spatial downscaling techniques, are also examined. The SILMU scenarios attempt to capture uncertainties both in future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols into the atmosphere and in the global climate response to these emissions. Two types of scenario were developed: (i) simple “policy-oriented” scenarios and (ii) detailed “scientific” scenarios. These are compared with new model estimates of future climate and recent observed changes in climate over certain high latitude regions.

scholarly journals Assessment of hydrological response in Subarnarekha river basin under anticipated climate change scenarios

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Subarnarekha River ◽  
Subarnarekha River Basin

<p>Two hydrological climate modelling techniques, general circulation model (GCM) and hypothetical climate change scenarios, were used to analyse the hydrological response to the anticipated climate change scenarios in the Subarnarekha river basin in Eastern India. Both models verified individually for the same river basin and a comparative performance of the models was evaluated to relate the two models for the near (2014-2040) period climate. The hydrological response under the anticipated climate change in the Subarnarekha river basin is well assessed by GCM under the RCP 8.5 scenarios compared to the RCPs 4.5. Results indicate GCM best suited over the hypothetical climate change scenarios as GCM has demonstrated their potential in accurately reproducing the past observed climatic changes. The strong performance of the hypothetical climate change scenarios model, particularly for warming climate scenarios, suggests that it may have distinct advantages for the analysis of water balance components in the river basin. The monthly streamflows of Subarnarekha river basin was simulated using a total of 14 years (2000-2013) daily observed streamflow data in the ArcSWAT model integrated with model calibration and uncertainty analysis by means of SUFI-2 algorithm. The results indicate during the calibration the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) were reported as 0.98 and 0.97, respectively, while during the validation the R2 and NSE were obtained as 0.94 and 0.94, respectively, confirms the hydrological model performance was very good both in calibration and validation. The obtained climate change water impact index (ICCWI) values reveal the Subarnarekha river basin is more responsive to climate change. The reduction in precipitation along with the significant warming under the projected future climate is likely to reduce availability of water substantially in the study region. This work would be useful for the effective management of water resources for sustainable agriculture and in mitigating natural hazards such as droughts and floods in the study region.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological drought over the Be River Basin, Viet Nam

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Truong Thao Sam ◽  
Pham Thi Loi ◽  
Bui Viet Hung ◽  
Van Thinh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Abstract In this paper, the responses of hydro-meteorological drought to changing climate in the Be River Basin located in Southern Vietnam are investigated. Climate change scenarios for the study area were statistically downscaled using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator tool, which incorporates climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) based on an ensemble of five general circulation models (Can-ESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was employed to simulate streamflow for the baseline time period and three consecutive future 20 year periods of 2030s (2021–2040), 2050s (2041–2060), and 2070s (2061–2080). Based on the simulation results, the Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Discharge Index were estimated to evaluate the features of hydro-meteorological droughts. The hydrological drought has 1-month lag time from the meteorological drought and the hydro-meteorological droughts have negative correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Under the climate changing impacts, the trends of drought severity will decrease in the future; while the trends of drought frequency will increase in the near future period (2030s), but decrease in the following future periods (2050 and 2070s). The findings of this study can provide useful information to the policy and decisionmakers for a better future planning and management of water resources in the study region.

scholarly journals Modelling the impacts of climate change on tropospheric ozone over three centuries

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 6805-6843 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. B. Hedegaard ◽  
A. Gross ◽  
J. H. Christensen ◽  
W. May ◽  
H. Skov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ozone Concentration ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
The Arctic

Abstract. The ozone chemistry over three centuries has been simulated based on climate prediction from a global climate model and constant anthropogenic emissions in order to separate out the effects on air pollution from climate change. Four decades in different centuries has been simulated using the chemistry version of the atmospheric long-range transport model; the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) forced with meteorology predicted by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model. The largest changes in both meteorology, ozone and its precursors is found in the 21st century, however, also significant changes are found in the 22nd century. At surface level the ozone concentration is predicted to increase due to climate change in the areas where substantial amounts of ozone precursors are emitted. Elsewhere a significant decrease is predicted at the surface. In the free troposphere a general increase is found in the entire Northern Hemisphere except in the tropics, where the ozone concentration is decreasing. In the Arctic the ozone concentration will increase in the entire air column, which most likely is due to changes in transport. The change in temperature, humidity and the naturally emitted Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) are governing with respect to changes in ozone both in the past, present and future century.

Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation under the Climate Change Scenarios

2016 ◽  
pp. 465-491
Author(s):  
Umut Okkan ◽  
Gul Inan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Relevance Vector Machine ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

This study aims to discuss the potentials of machine learning methods such as artificial neural network (ANN), least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), and relevance vector machine (RVM) in downscaling of simulations of a general circulation model (GCM) for monthly temperature and precipitation of the Demirkopru Dam located in the Aegean region of Turkey. The predictors are obtained from ERA-Interim re-analysis data. The best performed downscaling model is integrated into European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) with A2 future scenario. The results are then discussed to assess the probable climate change effects on temperature and precipitation.

Simulation of Late-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Wintertime Atmospheric Circulation over Europe Due to Anthropogenic Causes

2004 ◽  
Vol 17 (24) ◽  
pp. 4630-4635 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent Terray ◽  
Marie-Estelle Demory ◽  
Michel Déqué ◽  
Gaelle de Coetlogon ◽  
Eric Maisonnave
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract Evidence is presented, based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios performed with a global general circulation model of the atmosphere with high horizontal resolution over Europe, to suggest that the end-of-century anthropogenic climate change over the North Atlantic–European region strongly projects onto the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation during wintertime. It is reflected in a doubling of the residence frequency of the climate system in the associated circulation regime, in agreement with the nonlinear climate perspective. The strong increase in the amplitude of the response, compared to coarse-resolution coupled model studies, suggests that improved model representation of regional climate is needed to achieve more reliable projections of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.

scholarly journals Development of a SWAT Hydropower Operation Routine and Its Application to Assessing Hydrological Alterations in the Mekong

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2193
Author(s):  
Jayandra P. Shrestha ◽  
Markus Pahlow ◽  
Thomas A. Cochrane
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Reservoir Operations ◽  
Reservoir Systems ◽  
Hydropower Operation ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Reservoir operations and climate change can alter natural river flow regimes. To assess impacts of climate and hydropower operations on downstream flows and energy generation, an integrated hydropower operations and catchment hydrological model is needed. The widely used hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is ideal for catchment hydrology, but provides only limited reservoir operation functions. A hydropower reservoir operation routine (HydROR) was thus developed for SWAT to analyze complex reservoir systems under different policies. The Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Reservoir System Simulation (HEC-ResSim) model, a well-established reservoir simulation model, was used to indirectly evaluate functionality of the HydROR. A comparison between HydROR and HEC-ResSim under a range of operation rule curves resulted in R2 values exceeding 0.99. The HydROR was then applied to assess hydrological alterations due to combined impacts of climate change and reservoir operations of 38 hydropower dams in the 3S basin of the Mekong River. Hydropower production under climate change varied from −1.6% to 2.3%, depending on the general circulation model chosen. Changing the hydropower operation policy from maximizing energy production to maintaining ecological flows resulted in a production change of 13%. The calculation of hydrological alteration indices at the outlet of the 3S basin revealed that over 113% alteration in the natural river outflow regime occurred from the combined impacts of climate change and reservoir operations. Furthermore, seasonal flows and extreme water conditions changed by 154% and 104%, respectively. Alterations were also significant within the basin, and, as expected, were larger for high-head and small-river reservoirs. These alterations will adversely affect ecological dynamics, in particular, habitat availability. HydROR proved to be a valuable addition to SWAT for the analyses of complex reservoir systems under different policies and climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Assessing the climate change impact on hydrological response in the Gorganrood River Basin, Iran

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 421-433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Rouhani ◽  
Marayam Sadat Jafarzadeh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Annual Scale

Abstract A general circulation model (GCM) and hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) under forcing from A1B, B1, and A2 emission scenarios by 2030 were used to assess the implications of climate change on water balance of the Gorganrood River Basin (GRB). The results of MPEH5C models and multi-scenarios indicated that monthly precipitation generally decreases while temperature increases in various parts of the basin with the magnitude of the changes in terms of different stations and scenarios. Accordingly, seasonal ET will decrease throughout the GRB over the 2020s in all seasons except in summer, where a slight increase is projected for A1B and A2 scenarios. At annual scale, average quick flow and average low flow under the B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios are projected to decrease by 7.3 to 12.0% from the historical levels. Over the ensembles of climate change scenarios, the simulations project average autumn total flow declines of ∼10% and an overall range of 6.9 to 13.2%. In summer, the components of flow at the studied basin are expected to increase under A2 and A1B scenarios but will slightly decrease under B1 scenario. The study result addresses a likelihood of inevitable future climate change.

Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for maize cultivation in the Himalayan foothills of India

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 596-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Proloy Deb ◽  
Anthony S. Kiem ◽  
Mukand S. Babel ◽  
Sang Thi Chu ◽  
Biplab Chakma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Supplementary Irrigation ◽  
The Future

This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on rainfed maize (Zea mays) yield and evaluates different agro-adaptation measures to counteract its negative impacts at Sikkim, a Himalayan state of India. Future climate scenarios for the 10 years centered on 2025, 2055 and 2085 were obtained by downscaling the outputs of the HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) under for A2 and B2 emission scenarios. HadCM3 was chosen after assessing the performance analysis of six GCMs for the study region. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to rise in the future and precipitation is projected to decrease (by 1.7 to 22.6% relative to the 1991–2000 baseline) depending on the time period and scenarios considered. The crop simulation model CERES-Maize was then used to simulate maize yield under future climate change for the future time windows. Simulation results show that climate change could reduce maize productivity by 10.7–18.2%, compared to baseline yield, under A2 and 6.4–12.4% under B2 scenarios. However, the results also indicate that the projected decline in maize yield could be offset by early planting of seeds, lowering the farm yard manure application rate, introducing supplementary irrigation and shifting to heat tolerant varieties of maize.

scholarly journals Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Future Runoff of River Satluj

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-21
Author(s):  
Narayan P Gautam ◽  
Manohar Arora ◽  
N.K. Goel ◽  
A.R.S. Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Climatic Condition ◽  
The Impact

Climate change has been emerging as one of the challenges in the global environment. Information of predicted climatic changes in basin scale is highly useful to know the future climatic condition in the basin that ultimately becomes helpful to carry out planning and management of the water resources available in the basin. Climatic scenario is a plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set of climatological relationships that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change. This study based on statistical downscaling, provide good example focusing on predicting the rainfall and runoff patterns, using the coarse general circulation model (GCM) outputs. The outputs of the GCMs are utilized to study the impact of climate change on water resources. The present study has been taken up to identify the climate change scenarios for Satluj river basin, India.Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 8(1) p.10-21

scholarly journals Application of LARS - WG downscaling model for building climate change scenarios in the Srepok watershed

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 108-122
Author(s):  
Khoi Nguyen Dao ◽  
Nhung Thi Hong Nguyen ◽  
Canh Thanh Truong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

There are statistical downscaling methods such as: SDSM, LARS-WG, WGEN…, used to convert information on climate variables from the simulation results of General Circulation Model (GCM) to build climate change scenarios for local region. In this study, we used the LARS-WG model and HadCM3 GCM for two emission scenarios: B1 (low emission scenario) and A1B (medium emission scenario) to generate future scenarios for temperature and precipitation at meteorological stations and rain gauges in the Srepok watershed. The LARS-WG model was calibrated and validated against observed climate data for the period 1980-2009, and the calibrated LARS-WG was then used to generate future climate variables for the 2020s (2011-2030), 2055s (2046-2065), and 2090s (2080-2099). The climate change scenarios suggested that the climate in the study area will become warmer and drier in the future. The results obtained in this study could be useful for policy makers in planning climate change adaptation strategies for the study area.

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