Predicting Accruals Based on Cash-Flow Properties

2018 ◽  
Vol 93 (5) ◽  
pp. 165-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard M. Frankel ◽  
Yan Sun
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Serial Correlation ◽  
Cycle Length ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Flow Properties ◽  
Operating Cycle ◽  
Economic Role ◽  
Flow Changes

ABSTRACT Our goal is to understand the extent to which cash-flow properties explain accruals. Using the Dechow, Kothari, and Watts (1998) model, we derive a negative relation between accruals and cash-flow changes, and show that the strength of the relation is linked to negative serial correlation in cash-flow changes. Dechow et al. (1998) also suggest that the strength of the relation between accruals and revenue changes relates to operating cycle length. Prior accrual models have not incorporated these theoretical relations. We show that incorporating cash-flow changes, serial correlation in cash-flow changes, and operating cycle length increases explanatory power of all accrual models considered (i.e., Jones 1991; Ball and Shivakumar 2006; McNichols 2002; Jeter and Shivakumar 1999). We find that incorporating these variables in accrual models also improves specification and power, aids detection of earnings management in AAER firms, and produces a nondiscretionary accrual estimate that better predicts future cash flows and earnings. These results suggest the importance of considering the economic role of accruals when predicting accruals.

PENGARUH PERUBAHAN KOMPONEN LAPORAN ARUS KAS, PERUBAHAN LABA KOTOR, DAN PERUBAHAN SIZE PERUSAHAAN TERHADAP EXPECTED RETURN SAHAM

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Serly C ◽  
Astuti Yuli Setyani
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Gross Margin ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Flow Changes ◽  
Operating Cash Flow ◽  
Observation Period

The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of changes in thecomponents of cash flows (operating cash flow changes, investment cashflow changes , cash flow funding changes), changes in gross profit,and change the size of the company toward expected return stock ofmanufacturing companies which go public in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The number of companies studied as many as 84 companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange with the observation period from 2004 to 2008. The technique used in the data analysis is the technique of multiple linear regression. Results of the study showed that only cash flow operations changes ,investment cash flow changes and gross margin changes that showed significantly influence against expected return stockKata kunci: expected return, size, arus kas operasi, arus kas investasi, laba kotor

Does Financial Reporting Conservatism Mitigate Underinvestment?

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 258-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun A. Hong ◽  
Yongtae Kim ◽  
Gerald J. Lobo
Keyword(s):  
Information Asymmetry ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Agency Conflicts ◽  
Negative Relation ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
External Capital ◽  
Cash Flow Volatility

This study examines the role of financial reporting conservatism in mitigating underinvestment problems. Recognizing that volatile cash flows increase the need to access external capital markets and that agency conflicts and information asymmetry make external capital costlier than internal capital, which leads managers to forgo valuable investment projects, Minton and Schrand document a negative relation between cash flow volatility and investment. We draw on Minton and Schrand’s framework to isolate underinvestment problems and hypothesize and document that conservatism mitigates the negative relation between cash flow volatility and investment and that this mitigative effect is more pronounced for firms with ex ante more severe agency conflicts. We also document that conservatism mitigates the sensitivity of investment to cash flow volatility by facilitating access to external capital.

scholarly journals Simulation evidence on the properties of alternative measures of working capital accruals

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 378-394
Author(s):  
Javad Izadi Zadeh Darjezi ◽  
Homagni Choudhury ◽  
Alireza Nazarian
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Estimation Error ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Working Capital ◽  
Accrual Quality ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Uk

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the specification and power of tests based on the DD and modified DD model through the UK data between years 2000 and 2013, and make comparisons with tests using working capital accruals creating a measure of accruals quality as the standard deviation of the residuals value from firm-specific regressions base on working capital accruals on last, current and one-year-ahead cash flows from operations. Design/methodology/approach This study focuses both on the DD model and modified DD model to find out which of them can more accurately capture total working capital accrual estimation error and accrual quality. According to the DD model, the past, current and future net cash from operating activities as the three years’ operating cash inflows or outflows become omitted and correlated variables. In this study, the authors continue to document residuals from the DD and MDD models to demonstrate properties that are more consistent with behaviours of accruals estimation errors. Therefore, in this study, the authors are looking to compare the results from both the MDD and DD models and find which one of them is more effective in explaining the working capital accruals in the UK. Findings The authors find that adding additional explanatory variables may add additional explanatory power of variables to the DD model and extent to which accruals map into cash flow insights based on the UK data. This study is empirically well fitting with the internal workings of cash flows. As investors fixate only on the accounting earnings, they may fail to reflect fully on information contained within cash flow components and working capital accruals of current and future earnings. Originality/value The authors compare different equation to cover more items of working capital accruals. In addition, after examining earnings and accrual quality, the findings show that the average UK company behaviour was quite similar to the behaviour that was founded earlier for both models in the USA. Furthermore, this study results show that more volatility of sales, cash flow, accruals and earnings make a lower accrual quality. The results demonstrate that both models can capture the power to predict working capital accruals. Moreover, we find that adding additional explanatory variable of employee growth rate adds additional explanatory variables to DD model.

Understanding the connection between SMEs’ competitiveness and cash flow generation: an empirical analysis from Hungary

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabor Markus ◽  
Andras Rideg
Keyword(s):  
Financial Performance ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Competitive Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to interconnect the firm level competitive performance (competitiveness) to the financial performance of the firms. The goal is to give evidence on how successful small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) use their financial performance to support their competitive performance. Design/methodology/approach Competitiveness is interpreted and measured through the resource-based view theory on a wide range of competitiveness measurements with a sample size of 639 SMEs. Financial data originate from official, publicly accessible governmental archives. All data are from a mid-size Central European country (Hungary). To interconnect competitiveness and financial performance, this paper recognizes two types of cash flow, namely, cash flow to the “past” (dividend and debt service) and cash flow to the “future” (CAPEX and innovation). This paper used ordinary least squares regression and binomial logistic regression to analyze connections. Findings Cash flows to the “future” have much stronger effects on competitiveness than cash flows to the “past.” Debt services do not affect competitiveness, whereas dividends, CAPEX and innovation efforts have a significant positive connection to competitiveness, showing that higher cash flow indicates higher competitive performance. If this paper knows how much the firm spends on innovation and dividends, in about the four-fifths of the cases, this paper can predict the level of the competitiveness of the firm without any additional information. The level of these variables gives enough information, the variability of them is not relevant. Research limitations/implications The explanatory power of future-oriented cash flow elements is much higher than that of the past-oriented ones, while innovation dominates all models. Firms with higher competitiveness build their returns in their cost structure, and only when the financial position of the firm is stable enough, withdraw the financial resource based on a long-term plan. The results are limited by the fact that using the current sample, detailed and representative (e.g. cross-industrial, spatial, etc.) decomposition is not possible. Originality/value Literature is focusing on how SMEs reach success, how SMEs “earn money.” There is no evidence on how SMEs “spend money,” earned during their success.

scholarly journals The Role of Dividend Payout in the Determination of the Relationship Between Earnings Before Interest and Tax Cash Flow From Operations, Capital Expenditures and Firm Sustainable Cash Flows: A Case Of Non-Financial Firms

2018 ◽  
pp. 382-390
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Capital Expenditures ◽  
Dividend Payout ◽  
Financial Firms ◽  
Free Cash Flows

The prime objective of the current study is to determine the predictive ability to earnings before interest and tax, cash flow from operations, dividend payout, and capital expenditures for free cash flows. In addition to the current study is also intended to highlight the moderating role of dividend payout predictive ability to earnings before interest and tax, cash flow from operations, and capital expenditures for free cash flows. To achieve the objective of the study the data of 100 listed non-financial firms are collected from the annual report of the firms listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange. The data is collected over a period of six years from 2012-2017. To achieve the first set of objective regarding the direct results we have chosen OLS as a final statistical test after undergoing basic diagnostic analysis. To achieve the second set of objectives regarding the indirect effect of dividend payout, we have used the hierarchical multiple regression models.The statistical software, STATA is used for the analysis purpose. The findings of the study have shown a great deal of agreement with hypothesized results and also provided support to the pecking order theory and theory of free cash flow. The findings of the study will be helpful for policymakers, investors, scholars, and students in understanding the key factors which affect the free cash flow decisions and determine its predictability.

scholarly journals Profitabilitas, Likuiditas, Leverage, Arus Kas Operasi dan Return Saham Syariah pada Perusahaan Jakarta Islamic Index

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (01) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Sinta Wardani ◽  
Hermiyetti Hermiyetti ◽  
Muhammad Yusuf
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Operating Cash Flows ◽  
Operating Cash Flow

ABSTRACT This study aims to analyze and believe the factors that affect the return of sharia in the Jakarta Islamic Index. The sample of research is 29 companies with data from 2009-2015. Data analysis using multiple regression analysis. The results showed, liquidity and leverage is not significant significant to the return of sharia stocks. Operating cash flows are significant and positive against Sharia share returns. An interesting finding in this research is the role of operating cash flow as a determinant of stock returns. Future research can be proven the role of cash flow and other financial performance as a determinant of stock returns. A B S T R A K Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dan menguji secara empiris mengenai faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi return saham syariah di Jakarta Islamic Index. Sampel penelitian sebanyak 29 perusahaan dengan data tahun 2009-2015. Analisis data menggunakan analisis regresi berganda. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa profitabilitas. likuiditas dan leverage tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap return saham syariah. Arus kas operasi berpengaruh signifikan dan positif terhadap return saham syariah. Temuan menarik dalam penelitian ini adalah peran arus kas operasi sebagai penentu return saham. Penelitian mendatang dapat dibuktikan peran arus kas investasi dan pendanaan serta kinerja keuanganlainnya sebagai penentu return saham. JEL Classification: H54, R53

scholarly journals ANALISIS KINERJA PERUSAHAAN BERDASARKAN LAPORAN ARUS KAS PADA PT INDOMOBIL SUKSES INTERNASIONAL TBK

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 63-76
Author(s):  
Arief Tri Hardiyanto ◽  
Stefan Michael Benyamin Bertus
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Company Performance ◽  
Financial Condition ◽  
Negative Results ◽  
Cash Flow Statement ◽  
Supporting Device ◽  
Operating Activities

This research discusses the role of the analysis of the cash flow statement as supporting the evaluation of company performance based on cash flow ratio, so that it can be seen in the company's ability to manage cash, either in operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities. The analysis is expected to be useful as a supporting device in the decision making process for users of financial statements for both internal and external parties. Based on the analysis of the cash flow pattern, it can be seen operating activities resulted in net cash the company is negative. Thus the financial condition of PT Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk is not good. Cash flows from investing activities yielded negative results, thus the financial condition of PT Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk is both a financing cash flow generating net amount of cash flow that is positive. The third explanation pattern of cash flow, it can be concluded that the financial condition of PT Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk generally in poor condition. Then, based on the analysis of the cash flow statement, author obtained information that the company has liquidity and solvency levels that are less good. The capital structure of the company has not been sufficiently effective and efficient.Keywords: Analysis of Cash Flow Statement

Identifying the Roles of Accounting Accruals in Corporate Financial Reporting

2021 ◽  
pp. 0148558X2110352
Author(s):  
Sunil Dutta ◽  
Panos N. Patatoukas ◽  
Annika Yu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Timely Manner ◽  
Operating Cash Flows ◽  
Accounting Accruals ◽  
Operating Cash Flow ◽  
Cash Flow News ◽  
Corporate Financial Reporting

Research in corporate financial reporting identifies two important roles of accounting accruals. First, accruals smooth fluctuations in operating cash flows. Second, accruals allow recognition of losses in an asymmetric timely manner. While these two roles imply different relations between individual accrual components and operating cash flow news, prior research often focuses on the properties of aggregate accruals. We investigate the role of individual accrual components and identify asymmetry in the relation of investment with operating cash flow news as a confounding factor. We show that this investment factor operates through depreciation and amortization accruals, which typically account for the bulk of aggregate accruals. Overall, our article demonstrates the importance of adopting a granular approach to identifying the different roles of individual accrual components.

scholarly journals Income and cash flow in some agricultural enterprises of Hajdu-Bihar county on the basis of data in 1997-98

2001 ◽  
pp. 95-106
Author(s):  
Attila Rózsa
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Limited Liability ◽  
Income Level ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Agricultural Enterprises ◽  
Major Emphasis

The income of agricultural enterprises varies greatly according to the type of agricultural production. The available data was classified and averaged on the basis of the form of association.Although the management of the examined enterprises ensured a profit, closer analysis of their cash flows reveals that, at least in some cases, expenses were not always coverable, despite income. In all forms of association major emphasis was put on improvement and support investments. It is highly probable that later on these investments will result in an increasing income level and profit. The situation is the most advantageous in the case of co-operatives, as the cash flow of the second examined year originated from regular activity could cover the cash flow of investments and financing. In the case of limited liability and shareholder companies the above is not true, but advantageous changes occur there too. Unfortunately, in most cases the role of loans is very important in the operation of the company. As far as favourable aspects are concerned it can be stated that credit repayment covered by the regular activity.

Accruals and the Prediction of Future Cash Flows

2001 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary E. Barth ◽  
Donald P. Cram ◽  
Karen K. Nelson
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Accounts Receivable ◽  
Accounts Payable ◽  
Aggregate Earnings ◽  
Industry Membership ◽  
Future Cash Flows

Building on the Dechow et al. (1998) model of the accrual process, this study investigates the role of accruals in predicting future cash flows. The model shows that each accrual component reflects different information relating to future cash flows; aggregate earnings masks this information. As predicted, disaggregating accruals into major components—change in accounts receivable, change in accounts payable, change in inventory, depreciation, amortization, and other accruals—significantly enhances predictive ability. Each accrual component, including depreciation and amortization, is significant with the predicted sign in predicting future cash flows, incremental to current cash flow. The cash flow and accrual components of current earnings have substantially more predictive ability for future cash flows than several lags of aggregate earnings. The inferences are robust to alternative specifications, including controlling for operating cash cycle and industry membership.

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