More Evidence of Bias in the Differential Timeliness Measure of Conditional Conservatism

2011 ◽  
Vol 86 (5) ◽  
pp. 1765-1793 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panos N Patatoukas ◽  
Jacob K Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Joint Effect ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Conditional Conservatism ◽  
Empirical Regularities

ABSTRACT Despite the conceptual appeal and popularity of the differential timeliness (DT) measure of conditional conservatism proposed in Basu (1997), Dietrich et al. (2007) and Givoly et al. (2007) have identified considerable biases associated with that measure. We renew their call to avoid using the DT measure because it is affected unexpectedly by two empirical regularities—namely, scale is negatively related to (1) deflated mean earnings and (2) variance of stock returns. Even though these regularities are unrelated to conditional conservatism, their joint effect is substantial and pervasive. More importantly, prior findings regarding time-series and cross-sectional variation in differential timeliness are confounded by corresponding variation in these regularities. Data Availability: Data are publicly available from sources identified in the article.

Placebo Tests of Conditional Conservatism

2015 ◽  
Vol 91 (2) ◽  
pp. 625-648 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panos N. Patatoukas ◽  
Jacob K. Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Higher Moments ◽  
Archival Studies ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Asymmetric Timeliness ◽  
Conditional Conservatism ◽  
Measures Of Performance

ABSTRACT Basu (1997) proposes a measure of financial reporting conservatism based on asymmetry in the conditional earnings/returns relation. Patatoukas and Thomas (2011) show upward bias in this measure, because a placebo—lagged earnings—also exhibits similar asymmetry. Ball, Kothari, and Nikolaev (2013a) and Collins, Hribar, and Tian (2014) propose alternative explanations for the bias and offer revised measures to overcome the bias. However, we find that both revised measures remain substantially upward-biased. In particular, a placebo based on lagged share price mimics time-series and cross-sectional variation observed for the revised measures. More generally, we find biases in the asymmetric timeliness specification because earnings, accruals, and other measures of performance are often related to second and higher moments of the distribution of returns. In addition to suggesting that the asymmetric timeliness specification be used with caution, our study illustrates the useful role placebos can play in archival studies. Data Availability: Data are available from the sources identified in the text.

scholarly journals The Effect of Foreign Portfolio Equity Purchases on Security Returns in Kenya: Evidence from NSE Listed Financial Institutions

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 202
Author(s):  
Loice Koskei
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
International Portfolio ◽  
Security Returns

Foreign portfolio inflows increase the liquidity and the volume of finance available for financial institutions. At the same time, as foreign portfolio inflows finances in part the capital requirements of local companies, it can also increase the competitiveness of these companies. A huge surge of the inflows can be very inflationary because this forces the Central Bank of Kenya to expand the country’s monetary base by releasing counterpart domestic currency which eventually feeds into the inflationary process. The main aim of this study was to find out the effect of international portfolio equity purchases on security returns of listed financial institutions in Kenya. The study population was 21 financial institutions listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange. Using purposive sampling technique the study concentrated on 14 financial institutions. The research design of the study was causal as it is concerned more with understanding the connection between cause and effect relationships. The study adopted panel data regression using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method where the data included time series and cross-sectional. A unit root test was carried in this study to examine stationarity of variables because it used panel data which combined both cross-sectional and time series information. Panel estimation results indicated that international portfolio equity purchases have no effect on stock returns of listed financial institutions in Kenya. The study recommended implementation of regulations and policies that would attract foreign portfolio equity inflows in financial institutions.

Evidence for Some Underlying Time Series Momentum

2014 ◽  
pp. 205-217
Author(s):  
Faten Zoghlami
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Excess Returns ◽  
Momentum Strategy ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Times Series ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Main Driver ◽  
Full Rationality

The chapter documents significant and momentary momentum pattern in stock returns times series. Moreover, the chapter gives evidence that this time series momentum is the main driver of the cross-sectional momentum pattern. The temporary time series momentum pattern is midway between the behavioural and rational financial theories. Given the strong and positive autocorrelation in stock returns time series, the authors argue that investors are temporary under reacting, and they progressively find their full rationality. Using monthly returns inherent to all stocks listed on Tunisian stock market, from January 2000 to December 2009, the authors examine momentum strategy’s excess returns before and after considering time series momentum in stocks returns. Results show that momentum strategy is still profitable, but no longer puzzling. Furthermore, the chapter aims to reconcile between the behavioural and the rational financial theories, through the introduction of the progressive investors rationality.

scholarly journals Presence and Sources of Contrarian Profits in the Bangladesh Stock Market

2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-104
Author(s):  
Shah Saeed Hassan Chowdhury ◽  
Rashida Sharmin ◽  
M Arifur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Common Factor ◽  
Relative Strength ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Holding Period ◽  
Momentum Profits

This article, using weekly data for the period 2002 through 2013, investigates the presence of both contrarian and momentum profits and their sources in the Bangladesh stock market. It follows the methodology of Lo and MacKinlay ( Review of Financial Studies, 1990, 3(2), 175–205) to form portfolios with a weighted relative strength scheme (WRSS). The methodology of Jegadeesh and Titman ( Review of Financial Studies, 1995, 8(4), 973–993) is used to decompose the contrarian/momentum profits into three elements: compensation for cross-sectional risk, lead–lag effect in time series with respect to the common factor and the time-series pattern of stock returns. Results provide the evidence of significant contrarian profits for the holding period of one through eight weeks. There is a stronger presence of contrarian profits during 2002–2008 sub-period. The time-series pattern is found to be the main source of contrarian profits, suggesting that idiosyncratic (firm-specific) information is the main contributor to contrarian profits. Interestingly, the influence of idiosyncratic information on such profits has gradually decreased since 2008. Contrarian profits are robust to market sentiment and other systematic risk factors.

scholarly journals The Effect of Foreign Portfolio Equity Sales on Stock Returns in Kenya: Evidence from NSE Listed Financial Institutions

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 185
Author(s):  
Loice Koskei
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Study Population

Fluctuations of foreign portfolio equity intensify risk and unpredictability in financial institutions leading to high volatility. The main aim of this study was to find out the effect of foreign portfolio equity outflows on stock returns of listed financial institutions in Kenya. The study population was 21 financial institutions listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange. Using purposive sampling technique the study concentrated on 14 financial institutions. The research design of the study was causal as it is concerned more with understanding the connection between cause and effect relationships. The study adopted panel data regression using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method where the data included time series and cross-sectional. A unit root test was carried in this study to examine stationarity of variables because it used panel data which combined both cross-sectional and time series information. Panel estimation results indicated that foreign portfolio equity outflows have no effect on stock returns of listed financial institutions in Kenya. The study recommended implementation of policies that would curb foreign portfolio outflows in financial institutions in order to minimize reversals of foreign portfolio investments. 

scholarly journals On Estimating Conditional Conservatism

2012 ◽  
Vol 88 (3) ◽  
pp. 755-787 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Ball ◽  
S. P. Kothari ◽  
Valeri V. Nikolaev
Keyword(s):  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Scale Effects ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Omitted Variables ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Asymmetric Timeliness ◽  
Conditional Conservatism ◽  
Fixed Effects Regression

ABSTRACT The concept of conditional conservatism (asymmetric earnings timeliness) has provided new insight into financial reporting and stimulated considerable research since Basu (1997). Patatoukas and Thomas (2011) report bias in firm-level cross-sectional asymmetry estimates that they attribute to scale effects. We do not agree with their advice that researchers should avoid conditional conservatism estimates and inferences from research based on such estimates. Our theoretical and empirical analyses suggest the explanation is a correlated omitted variables problem that can be addressed in a straightforward fashion, including fixed-effects regression. Correlation between the expected components of earnings and returns biases estimates of how earnings incorporate the information contained in returns. Further, the correlation varies with returns, biasing asymmetric timeliness estimates. When firm-specific effects are taken into account, estimates do not exhibit the bias, are statistically and economically significant, are consistent with priors, and behave as a predictable function of book-to-market, size, and leverage. Data Availability: Data are publicly available from sources identified in the article.

scholarly journals INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON STOCK PRICES IN POLAND – CROSS SECTION AND TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomasz Schabek ◽  
Nijolė Maknickienė
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Book Value ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Market Variables ◽  
Macro Variables

The purpose of the study is to determine if the macroeconomic factors influence rates of returns from broad index of stocks in Poland. The study investigates stability of relation between macroeconomic and stock market variables in short and long time period. After running time series regressions we check if selected macro variables are still significant in cross-section of stock returns including control variables like price to book value, capitalization and momentum. The study is based on large sample of individual rates of returns and macroeconomic variables describing real sphere of the economy. Mine findings suggest that the short and long term relation is statistically and economically significant although not stable in the both analysed time horizons. Macroeconomic beta parameter (sensitivity to macro variables measure) is not significant in cross-sectional test proving that traditionally accepted variables (in our study only price to book-value and momentum) still better explain the expected re-turns.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document