Why Long-Run Unemployment Rates Differ between Countries

1980 ◽  
Vol 82 (2) ◽  
pp. 240
Author(s):  
Wilhelm Krelle
Keyword(s):  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 160
Author(s):  
Despina Tumanoska

This paper investigates the relationship between unemployment rates (youth and total) and GDP growth in North Macedonia, within the context of Okun’s Law. The econometric analysis of the paper is based on The Auto-regression Distributed Lags Model, using data for the period 1991-2017 collected from different data basis. The econometric analysis suggests that there is a statistically significant long-run relationship between the GDP growth and total unemployment in North Macedonia, at the 1% level of probability. In particular, the findings show that a 1% increase in the economic growth will lead to decrease of the total unemployment for 2.57%. No short- or long-run relationship between GDP growth and youth unemployment was detected.


2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Iman Cheratian ◽  
Mohammad Reza Farzanegan ◽  
Saleh Goltabar

Abstract We examine the effects of oil prices on unemployment rates in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over the period of 1991–2017. Using the panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (panel NARDL) model, the results show that in the long run, positive changes of oil prices exert a positive (increasing) impact on the unemployment rate. However, negative changes in oil prices have a significant decreasing effect on the unemployment rate in the MENA region. We also find that the short run changes in oil prices do not show a significant effect on unemployment rates. Our findings are robust to an alternative measure of oil rents per capita and in line with predictions of the resource curse hypothesis. Countries with higher dependency on natural resource rents experience, on average, a slower long run economic growth rate (and thus higher unemployment rates), compared with countries with lower dependency.


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 148-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuchehr Irandoust

Purpose This paper aims to examine whether there exists a long-run causal relationship between house prices and unemployment rates for eight major European countries. Design/methodology/approach The bootstrap panel Granger causality approach that accounts for cross-sectional dependence, slope heterogeneity and structural breaks is used to detect the direction of causality. Findings The empirical findings for the overall panel support the presence of unidirectional causality running from house prices to unemployment. Practical implications The findings are not only important for households but also for policymakers concerned with economic and financial stability. Originality/value There are only a limited number of studies that have investigated the direct link between house prices and employment or unemployment. Given the increased importance of labor market variables, particularly the choice of the unemployment rate as a key indicator in designing forward guidance and the increased financial stability concerns regarding house price dynamics, it is important to better understand the causal linkages between house prices and unemployment rates. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this paper is the first to apply the bootstrap panel Granger causality approach to examine the relationship between house prices and unemployment rates.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheng-Zheng Li ◽  
Chi Wei Su ◽  
Ran Tao

PurposeThis study aims to examine the unemployment hysteresis effects from the perspective of the heterogeneity of genders within Asian countries.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use the annual unemployment rate dataset of 12 Asian countries ranging from 1991–2020. Traditional unit root tests are initially employed to investigate the unemployment hysteresis effect. Considering the structural break and cross-section dependence problems, the sequential panel selection method (SPSM) and the Kapetanios–Snell–Shin (KSS) panel unit root test with Fourier functions have proven to be more applicable.FindingsThe empirical results indicate that the unemployment rate is stationary in most Asian regions for both females and males, which confirms the mean reversion process of the natural unemployment hypothesis. This suggests that these countries' unemployment rates are flexible to quickly revert to its long-run equilibrium determined by the labor markets. However, only the female unemployment rate in Pakistan and Nepal and adult female unemployment rates in these two economies present non-stationary series. In line with the unemployment hysteresis effect, it means shocks will leave a permanent impact on their labor market.Practical implicationsOn the one hand, in most of the Asian countries, it can be inferred that the trade-off between inflation and unemployment is temporary because the natural unemployment hypothesis holds. Therefore, policymakers may consider using monetary policy as a tool to control inflation and stimulate growth during a recession. Such policy measures should not have a long-run impact on unemployment or cause a permanent shift in the natural unemployment rate. On the other hand, the government should implement active labor protective programs such as education or training schemes, job search assistance programs and maternity protection, especially for female adults, to reduce the negative shocks in the economic downturn, which is beneficial for them away from being long-term unemployed. It is also necessary to improve the labor unions to reduce the discrimination between female and male labors.Originality/valueThis paper innovatively concentrates on the heterogeneity performances between genders about the unemployment hysteresis effect within Asian countries. Furthermore, taking into account the age-specific characteristics, the youth and adult unemployment rates have been investigated. Additionally, the approximation of bootstrap distribution and the advanced panel KSS unit root test with a Fourier function are employed. Thereby, targeted policies for the government can be applied to reduce the discrimination and negative shocks on female adults in the labor market.


1993 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 719-742 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Pope ◽  
Glenn Withers

Historically, lands of recent settlement have had a thirst for immigrants, but one that has been procyclical (negatively related to unemployment rates). For a period in the early 1980s, Australia's major political parties supported high immigration in spite of rising unemployment. This article explores the long-run relationship between immigration and local unemployment, posing the question, “Do migrants rob jobs?” It also seeks to apply long-run historical analysis to recent economic debate: would Australia's unemployment rate have been lower in very recent times without so many immigrants?


Author(s):  
Selahattin Sarı ◽  
Ahmet Ay ◽  
Melike Köksal

In the broadest sense, immigration is defined as the change of places where people live, and it becomes a more complicated phenomenon when analyzed from the socio-economic, political and psychological aspects. The extent of the impact of migration in this context varies according to the conditions of each country, but it is also related to the number of migrants received and the many personal characteristics of immigrants, such as age, education level. Therefore, there is no unanimity on the subject in the literature. The total number of settled migrations of the 25 OECD countries in the last 10 years has been used. The effects of the migrants employed in the labor markets (registered) on the unemployment rates of the selected countries were investigated. The study period was selected as 2008-2018 years. The data was obtained from the OECD and World Bank databases. In this context, panel causality analysis was applied to investigate the short-term effects of the employed migrants on the unemployment rates of the selected countries. As a result of the analysis, in the short-term, no double or one-way relationship between unemployment and immigration was found. However, in the long run, the cointegration relationship between the variables was determined and the panel cointegration analysis revealed that long-term migration would affect unemployment in the same direction. So, according to the results of the analysis; for the countries examined, there is a long-term and similar relationship between unemployment and settled migrants who participate in labor force in the selected period.


2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (1) ◽  
pp. 371-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksander Berentsen ◽  
Guido Menzio ◽  
Randall Wright

We study the long-run relation between money (inflation or interest rates) and unemployment. We document positive relationships between these variables at low frequencies. We develop a framework where money and unemployment are modeled using explicit microfoundations, providing a unified theory to analyze labor and goods markets. We calibrate the model and ask how monetary factors account for labor market behavior. We can account for a sizable fraction of the increase in unemployment rates during the 1970s. We show how it matters whether one uses monetary theory based on the search-and-bargaining approach or on an ad hoc cash-in-advance constraint. (JEL E24, E31, E41, E43, E52)


2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zuzana Janko ◽  
J. C. Herbert Emery ◽  
Pierre Guenette

This paper investigates the relationship between health and the business cycle for the Canadian economy. The majority of existing literature shows a procyclical relationship between death rates and indicators of the business cycle, suggesting that recessions are good for one’s health. We use a time series error correction model to determine the short-run and long-run impacts of the unemployment rates on death rates. Our results indicate that temporary slowdowns in economic activity are associated with lower death rates. Moreover, once we stratify the data by sex, we find a long-run negative relationship between the unemployment rate and death rates for both sexes.


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