Stochastic differential equations for ruin probabilities

1995 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 74-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Max Møller
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equations ◽  
Point Processes ◽  
Diffusion Processes ◽  
Marked Point ◽  
Marked Point Processes ◽  
Ruin Probabilities ◽  
Probability Of Ruin ◽  
Time Of Ruin ◽  
Markov Structure ◽  
The Time Of Ruin

The present paper proposes a general approach for finding differential equations to evaluate probabilities of ruin in finite and infinite time. Attention is given to real-valued non-diffusion processes where a Markov structure is obtainable. Ruin is allowed to occur upon a jump or between the jumps. The key point is to define a process of conditional ruin probabilities and identify this process stopped at the time of ruin as a martingale. Using the theory of marked point processes together with the change-of-variable formula or the martingale representation theorem for point processes, we obtain differential equations for evaluating the probability of ruin.Numerical illustrations are given by solving a partial differential equation numerically to obtain the probability of ruin over a finite time horizon.

Stochastic differential equations for ruin probabilities

1995 ◽  
Vol 32 (01) ◽  
pp. 74-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Max Møller
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equations ◽  
Point Processes ◽  
Diffusion Processes ◽  
Marked Point ◽  
Marked Point Processes ◽  
Ruin Probabilities ◽  
Probability Of Ruin ◽  
Time Of Ruin ◽  
Markov Structure ◽  
The Time Of Ruin

The present paper proposes a general approach for finding differential equations to evaluate probabilities of ruin in finite and infinite time. Attention is given to real-valued non-diffusion processes where a Markov structure is obtainable. Ruin is allowed to occur upon a jump or between the jumps. The key point is to define a process of conditional ruin probabilities and identify this process stopped at the time of ruin as a martingale. Using the theory of marked point processes together with the change-of-variable formula or the martingale representation theorem for point processes, we obtain differential equations for evaluating the probability of ruin. Numerical illustrations are given by solving a partial differential equation numerically to obtain the probability of ruin over a finite time horizon.

Marked point processes as limits of Markovian arrival streams

1993 ◽  
Vol 30 (02) ◽  
pp. 365-372 ◽  
Author(s):  
Søren Asmussen ◽  
Ger Koole
Keyword(s):  
Point Process ◽  
Point Processes ◽  
Marked Point ◽  
The State ◽  
Marked Point Processes ◽  
Marked Point Process ◽  
State Transitions ◽  
Poisson Arrival ◽  
Convergence Of Moments ◽  
Environmental Process

A Markovian arrival stream is a marked point process generated by the state transitions of a given Markovian environmental process and Poisson arrival rates depending on the environment. It is shown that to a given marked point process there is a sequence of such Markovian arrival streams with the property that as m →∞. Various related corollaries (involving stationarity, convergence of moments and ergodicity) and counterexamples are discussed as well.

scholarly journals Perfect sampling for infinite server and loss systems

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (03) ◽  
pp. 761-786 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Blanchet ◽  
Jing Dong
Keyword(s):  
Point Processes ◽  
Marked Point ◽  
Heavy Traffic ◽  
Arrival Rate ◽  
Marked Point Processes ◽  
Perfect Sampling ◽  
Running Time ◽  
Infinite Server ◽  
Loss Systems ◽  
Server System

We present the first class of perfect sampling (also known as exact simulation) algorithms for the steady-state distribution of non-Markovian loss systems. We use a variation of dominated coupling from the past. We first simulate a stationary infinite server system backwards in time and analyze the running time in heavy traffic. In particular, we are able to simulate stationary renewal marked point processes in unbounded regions. We then use the infinite server system as an upper bound process to simulate the loss system. The running time analysis of our perfect sampling algorithm for loss systems is performed in the quality-driven (QD) and the quality-and-efficiency-driven regimes. In both cases, we show that our algorithm achieves subexponential complexity as both the number of servers and the arrival rate increase. Moreover, in the QD regime, our algorithm achieves a nearly optimal rate of complexity.

scholarly journals Random Marked Sets

2012 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 603-616 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Ballani ◽  
Z. Kabluchko ◽  
M. Schlather
Keyword(s):  
Random Fields ◽  
Covariance Function ◽  
Point Processes ◽  
Marked Point ◽  
Positive Definiteness ◽  
Gaussian Random Fields ◽  
Marked Point Processes ◽  
Random Set ◽  
Geostatistical Methods ◽  
New Class

We aim to link random fields and marked point processes, and, therefore, introduce a new class of stochastic processes which are defined on a random set in . Unlike for random fields, the mark covariance function of a random marked set is in general not positive definite. This implies that in many situations the use of simple geostatistical methods appears to be questionable. Surprisingly, for a special class of processes based on Gaussian random fields, we do have positive definiteness for the corresponding mark covariance function and mark correlation function.

Some EATA properties for marked point processes

1995 ◽  
Vol 32 (04) ◽  
pp. 922-929
Author(s):  
D. Kofman ◽  
H. Korezlioglu
Keyword(s):  
Point Processes ◽  
Stochastic Integral ◽  
Marked Point ◽  
Marked Point Processes ◽  
Batch Arrival ◽  
Integral Approach ◽  
Arrival Processes

We derive an ESTA property for marked point processes similar to Wolff's PASTA property for ordinary (non-marked) point processes, via a stochastic integral approach. This new ESTA property allows us to extend a known result on the conditional PASTA property and to derive an ASTA property for batch arrival processes. We also present an application of our results.

scholarly journals Dividend Moments in the Dual Risk Model: Exact and Approximate Approaches

2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (02) ◽  
pp. 399-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric C.K. Cheung ◽  
Steve Drekic
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equations ◽  
Laplace Transform ◽  
Size Distribution ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Time Model ◽  
Jump Size ◽  
Time Of Ruin ◽  
The Time Of Ruin

In the classical compound Poisson risk model, it is assumed that a company (typically an insurance company) receives premium at a constant rate and pays incurred claims until ruin occurs. In contrast, for certain companies (typically those focusing on invention), it might be more appropriate to assume expenses are paid at a fixed rate and occasional random income is earned. In such cases, the surplus process of the company can be modelled as a dual of the classical compound Poisson model, as described in Avanzi et al. (2007). Assuming further that a barrier strategy is applied to such a model (i.e., any overshoot beyond a fixed level caused by an upward jump is paid out as a dividend until ruin occurs), we are able to derive integro-differential equations for the moments of the total discounted dividends as well as the Laplace transform of the time of ruin. These integro-differential equations can be solved explicitly assuming the jump size distribution has a rational Laplace transform. We also propose a discrete-time analogue of the continuous-time dual model and show that the corresponding quantities can be solved for explicitly leaving the discrete jump size distribution arbitrary. While the discrete-time model can be considered as a stand-alone model, it can also serve as an approximation to the continuous-time model. Finally, we consider a generalization of the so-called Dickson-Waters modification in optimal dividends problems by maximizing the difference between the expected value of discounted dividends and the present value of a fixed penalty applied at the time of ruin.

Integral equations for compound distribution functions

1996 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 388-399 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Max Møller
Keyword(s):  
Point Processes ◽  
Marked Point ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Jump Processes ◽  
Marked Point Processes ◽  
Martingale Theory ◽  
Compound Distribution ◽  
Change Of Variable ◽  
Fixed Period

The aim of the present paper is to introduce some techniques, based on the change of variable formula for processes of finite variation, for establishing (integro) differential equations for evaluating the distribution of jump processes for a fixed period of time. This is of interest in insurance mathematics for evaluating the distribution of the total amount of claims occurred over some period of time, and attention will be given to such issues. Firstly we will study some techniques when the process has independent increments, and then a more refined martingale technique is discussed. The building blocks are delivered by the theory of marked point processes and associated martingale theory. A simple numerical example is given.

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