Taboo extinction, sojourn times, and asymptotic growth for the Markovian birth and death process

1972 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 486-506 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. A. O'n. Waugh
Keyword(s):  
Growth Factor ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Asymptotic Expression ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Process ◽  
Asymptotic Growth ◽  
Size Dependent ◽  
Sojourn Times

A well-known result in the theory of branching processes provides an asymptotic expression for the population size (valid for large times) in terms of a single random variable, multiplied by a deterministic exponential growth factor. In the present paper this is generalized to a class of size-dependent population models. The work is based on the series of sojourn times. An essential tool is the use of probabilities conditional upon non-extinction (taboo probabilities).

scholarly journals On expected durations of birth–death processes, with applications to branching processes and SIS epidemics

2016 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 203-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Ball ◽  
Tom Britton ◽  
Peter Neal
Keyword(s):  
Asymptotic Expression ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Single Individual ◽  
Expected Time ◽  
Time To Extinction ◽  
Number Of Individuals ◽  
Sis Epidemic ◽  
Birth Death

Abstract We study continuous-time birth–death type processes, where individuals have independent and identically distributed lifetimes, according to a random variable Q, with E[Q] = 1, and where the birth rate if the population is currently in state (has size) n is α(n). We focus on two important examples, namely α(n) = λ n being a branching process, and α(n) = λn(N - n) / N which corresponds to an SIS (susceptible → infective → susceptible) epidemic model in a homogeneously mixing community of fixed size N. The processes are assumed to start with a single individual, i.e. in state 1. Let T, An, C, and S denote the (random) time to extinction, the total time spent in state n, the total number of individuals ever alive, and the sum of the lifetimes of all individuals in the birth–death process, respectively. We give expressions for the expectation of all these quantities and show that these expectations are insensitive to the distribution of Q. We also derive an asymptotic expression for the expected time to extinction of the SIS epidemic, but now starting at the endemic state, which is not independent of the distribution of Q. The results are also applied to the household SIS epidemic, showing that, in contrast to the household SIR (susceptible → infective → recovered) epidemic, its threshold parameter R* is insensitive to the distribution of Q.

M/Ck/1 Queue with Impatient Customers

2016 ◽  
pp. 22-37
Author(s):  
Umay Uzunoglu Kocer
Keyword(s):  
Service Time ◽  
Time Distribution ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Single Server ◽  
Service Time Distribution ◽  
Birth And Death Process ◽  
Impatient Customers ◽  
Constant Rate ◽  
Long Time

A single-server queuing system with impatient customers and Coxian service is examined. It is assumed that arrivals are Poisson with a constant rate. When the server is busy upon an arrival, customer joins the queue and there is an infinite capacity of the queue. Since the variance of the service time is relatively high, the service time distribution is characterized by k-phase Cox distribution. Due to the high variability of service times and since some of the services take extremely long time, customers not only in the queue, but also in the service may become impatient. Each customer, upon arrival, activates an individual timer and starts his patience time. The patience time for each customer is a random variable which has exponential distribution. If the service does not completed before the customer's time expires, the customer abandons the queue never to return. The model is expressed as birth-and-death process and the balance equations are provided.

scholarly journals Modeling Neutral Evolution Using an Infinite-Allele Markov Branching Process

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaowei Wu ◽  
Marek Kimmel
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Spectrum ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Asymptotic Expression ◽  
Interval Estimation ◽  
Neutral Evolution ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Process ◽  
Markov Branching Process ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Time Point

We consider an infinite-allele Markov branching process (IAMBP). Our main focus is the frequency spectrum of this process, that is, the proportion of alleles having a given number of copies at a specified time point. We derive the variance of the frequency spectrum, which is useful for interval estimation and hypothesis testing for process parameters. In addition, for a class of special IAMBP with birth and death offspring distribution, we show that the mean of its limiting frequency spectrum has an explicit form in terms of the hypergeometric function. We also derive an asymptotic expression for convergence rate to the limit. Simulations are used to illustrate the results for the birth and death process.

The extinction time of a general birth and death process with catastrophes

1986 ◽  
Vol 23 (04) ◽  
pp. 851-858 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Brockwell
Keyword(s):  
Laplace Transform ◽  
Size Distribution ◽  
Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Extinction Time ◽  
Birth And Death Process ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Laplace Transform ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient

The Laplace transform of the extinction time is determined for a general birth and death process with arbitrary catastrophe rate and catastrophe size distribution. It is assumed only that the birth rates satisfyλ0= 0,λj> 0 for eachj> 0, and. Necessary and sufficient conditions for certain extinction of the population are derived. The results are applied to the linear birth and death process (λj=jλ, µj=jμ) with catastrophes of several different types.

A stochastic process related to language change

1970 ◽  
Vol 7 (01) ◽  
pp. 69-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barron Brainerd
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Process ◽  
Language Change ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Process ◽  
Standard Methods

The purpose of this note is two-fold. First, to introduce the mathematical reader to a group of problems in the study of language change which has received little attention from mathematicians and probabilists. Secondly, to introduce a birth and death process, arising naturally out of this group of problems, which has received little attention in the literature. This process can be solved using the standard methods and the solution is exhibited here.

Multi-Location Inventory Model Considering Bidirectional and Unidirectional Transshipments Simultaneously

2013 ◽  
Vol 694-697 ◽  
pp. 2742-2745
Author(s):  
Jin Hong Zhong ◽  
Yun Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Process Model ◽  
Approximate Calculation ◽  
Inventory Model ◽  
Inventory System ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Process ◽  
Inventory Models ◽  
Continuous Review ◽  
Poisson Demand ◽  
Queue Theory

Abstract. A cross-regional multi-site inventory system with independent Poisson demand and continuous review (S-1,S) policy, in which there is bidirectional transshipment between the locations at the same area, and unidirectional transshipment between the locations at the different area. According to the M/G/S/S queue theory, birth and death process model and approximate calculation policy, we established inventory models respectively for the loss sales case and backorder case, and designed corresponding procedures to solve them. Finally, we verify the effectiveness of proposed models and methods by means of a lot of contrast experiments.

AN AGE-DEPENDENT BIRTH AND DEATH PROCESS

Biometrika ◽  
1955 ◽  
Vol 42 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 291-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. A. O'N WAUGH
Keyword(s):  
Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Process ◽  
Age Dependent

On a property of finite-state birth and death processes

1986 ◽  
Vol 23 (04) ◽  
pp. 859-866
Author(s):  
A. J. Branford
Keyword(s):  
Simple Proof ◽  
Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Process ◽  
Birth And Death Processes ◽  
Converse Result ◽  
Finite State ◽  
Event Times

A simple proof is given of the result that the ‘overflow' from a finite-state birth and death process is a renewal stream characterized by hyperexponential inter-event times. Our structure is utilized to give a converse result that any hyperexponential renewal stream can be so produced as the overflow from a finite-state birth and death process.

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