Equilibrium probability distributions for low density highway traffic

1966 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 247-260 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. F. Newell

If on a long homogeneous highway there is no interaction between cars, then, under a wide range of conditions, an initial distribution of cars will in the course of time tend toward that of a Poisson process with statistically independent velocities for the cars in any finite interval of highway. Here we will generalize this known property to obtain the following. Suppose cars do interact in such a way as to delay a car when it passes another, but the density of cars is so low that we can neglect simultaneous interactions between three or more cars. There will again be equilibrium distributions of cars to which general classes of initial distributions will converge. These equilibrium distributions are superpositions of two statistically independent processes, one a Poisson process of single free cars with statistically independent velocities, and the other a Poisson process of interacting pairs of cars with various velocities. In the limit of zero interaction, the density of pairs vanishes leaving only the Poisson process of single cars as a special case. To the same order of approximation, including the first order effects of interactions, the headway distribution between consecutive cars will still have exponential tail outside the range of interaction.

1966 ◽  
Vol 3 (01) ◽  
pp. 247-260 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. F. Newell

If on a long homogeneous highway there is no interaction between cars, then, under a wide range of conditions, an initial distribution of cars will in the course of time tend toward that of a Poisson process with statistically independent velocities for the cars in any finite interval of highway. Here we will generalize this known property to obtain the following. Suppose cars do interact in such a way as to delay a car when it passes another, but the density of cars is so low that we can neglect simultaneous interactions between three or more cars. There will again be equilibrium distributions of cars to which general classes of initial distributions will converge. These equilibrium distributions are superpositions of two statistically independent processes, one a Poisson process of single free cars with statistically independent velocities, and the other a Poisson process of interacting pairs of cars with various velocities. In the limit of zero interaction, the density of pairs vanishes leaving only the Poisson process of single cars as a special case. To the same order of approximation, including the first order effects of interactions, the headway distribution between consecutive cars will still have exponential tail outside the range of interaction.


Axioms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
Bruno Carbonaro ◽  
Marco Menale

A complex system is a system involving particles whose pairwise interactions cannot be composed in the same way as in classical Mechanics, i.e., the result of interaction of each particle with all the remaining ones cannot be expressed as a sum of its interactions with each of them (we cannot even know the functional dependence of the total interaction on the single interactions). Moreover, in view of the wide range of its applications to biologic, social, and economic problems, the variables describing the state of the system (i.e., the states of all of its particles) are not always (only) the usual mechanical variables (position and velocity), but (also) many additional variables describing e.g., health, wealth, social condition, social rôle ⋯, and so on. Thus, in order to achieve a mathematical description of the problems of everyday’s life of any human society, either at a microscopic or at a macroscpoic scale, a new mathematical theory (or, more precisely, a scheme of mathematical models), called KTAP, has been devised, which provides an equation which is a generalized version of the Boltzmann equation, to describe in terms of probability distributions the evolution of a non-mechanical complex system. In connection with applications, the classical problems about existence, uniqueness, continuous dependence, and stability of its solutions turn out to be particularly relevant. As far as we are aware, however, the problem of continuous dependence and stability of solutions with respect to perturbations of the parameters expressing the interaction rates of particles and the transition probability densities (see Section The Basic Equations has not been tackled yet). Accordingly, the present paper aims to give some initial results concerning these two basic problems. In particular, Theorem 2 reveals to be stable with respect to small perturbations of parameters, and, as far as instability of solutions with respect to perturbations of parameters is concerned, Theorem 3 shows that solutions are unstable with respect to “large” perturbations of interaction rates; these hints are illustrated by numerical simulations that point out how much solutions corresponding to different values of parameters stay away from each other as t→+∞.


2008 ◽  
Vol 100 (1) ◽  
pp. 482-494 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chad V. Anderson ◽  
Andrew J. Fuglevand

Functional electrical stimulation (FES) involves artificial activation of muscles with implanted electrodes to restore motor function in paralyzed individuals. The range of motor behaviors that can be generated by FES, however, is limited to a small set of preprogrammed movements such as hand grasp and release. A broader range of movements has not been implemented because of the substantial difficulty associated with identifying the patterns of muscle stimulation needed to elicit specified movements. To overcome this limitation in controlling FES systems, we used probabilistic methods to estimate the levels of muscle activity in the human arm during a wide range of free movements based on kinematic information of the upper limb. Conditional probability distributions were generated based on hand kinematics and associated surface electromyographic (EMG) signals from 12 arm muscles recorded during a training task involving random movements of the arm in one subject. These distributions were then used to predict in four other subjects the patterns of muscle activity associated with eight different movement tasks. On average, about 40% of the variance in the actual EMG signals could be accounted for in the predicted EMG signals. These results suggest that probabilistic methods ultimately might be used to predict the patterns of muscle stimulation needed to produce a wide array of desired movements in paralyzed individuals with FES.


2016 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 953-956 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Möhle ◽  
Morihiro Notohara

AbstractAn extension of a convergence theorem for sequences of Markov chains is derived. For every positive integer N let (XN(r))r be a Markov chain with the same finite state space S and transition matrix ΠN=I+dNBN, where I is the unit matrix, Q a generator matrix, (BN)N a sequence of matrices, limN℩∞cN= limN→∞dN=0 and limN→∞cN∕dN=0. Suppose that the limits P≔limm→∞(I+dNQ)m and G≔limN→∞PBNP exist. If the sequence of initial distributions PXN(0) converges weakly to some probability measure μ, then the finite-dimensional distributions of (XN([t∕cN))t≥0 converge to those of the Markov process (Xt)t≥0 with initial distribution μ, transition matrix PetG and limN→∞(I+dNQ+cNBN)[t∕cN]


1995 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth W. Church ◽  
William A. Gale

AbstractShannon (1948) showed that a wide range of practical problems can be reduced to the problem of estimating probability distributions of words and ngrams in text. It has become standard practice in text compression, speech recognition, information retrieval and many other applications of Shannon's theory to introduce a “bag-of-words” assumption. But obviously, word rates vary from genre to genre, author to author, topic to topic, document to document, section to section, and paragraph to paragraph. The proposed Poisson mixture captures much of this heterogeneous structure by allowing the Poisson parameter θ to vary over documents subject to a density function φ. φ is intended to capture dependencies on hidden variables such genre, author, topic, etc. (The Negative Binomial is a well-known special case where φ is a Г distribution.) Poisson mixtures fit the data better than standard Poissons, producing more accurate estimates of the variance over documents (σ2), entropy (H), inverse document frequency (IDF), and adaptation (Pr(x ≥ 2/x ≥ 1)).


2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelin Lu ◽  
K. C. Chang ◽  
Rui Zhou

This paper addresses the problem of distributed fusion when the conditional independence assumptions on sensor measurements or local estimates are not met. A new data fusion algorithm called Copula fusion is presented. The proposed method is grounded on Copula statistical modeling and Bayesian analysis. The primary advantage of the Copula-based methodology is that it could reveal the unknown correlation that allows one to build joint probability distributions with potentially arbitrary underlying marginals and a desired intermodal dependence. The proposed fusion algorithm requires no a priori knowledge of communications patterns or network connectivity. The simulation results show that the Copula fusion brings a consistent estimate for a wide range of process noises.


1999 ◽  
Author(s):  
William G. Broadhead ◽  
D. Theodore Zinke

Abstract The design of an airbag restraint system presents a classic engineering challenge. There are numerous design parameters that need to be optimized to cover the wide range of occupant sizes, occupant positions and vehicle collision modes. Some of the major parameters that affect airbag performance include, the airbag inflator characteristics, airbag size and shape, airbag vent size, steering column collapse characteristics, airbag cover characteristics, airbag fold pattern, knee bolsters, seat, seat belt characteristics, and vehicle crush characteristics. Optimization of these parameters can involve extremely costly programs of sled tests and full scale vehicle crash tests. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) with regard to airbag design are not specific and allow flexibility in component characteristics. One design strategy, which is simplistic and inexpensive, is to utilize a very fast, high output gas generator (inflator). This ensures that the bag will begin restraining the occupant soon after deployment and can make up for deficiencies in other components such as inadequate steering column collapse or an unusually stiff vehicle crush characteristic. The use of such inflators generally works well for properly positioned occupants in moderate to high-speed frontal collisions by taking advantage of the principle of ridedown. When an airbag quickly fills the gap between the occupant and the instrument panel or steering wheel it links him to the vehicle such that he utilizes the vehicle’s front-end crush to help dissipate his energy, thus reducing the restraint forces. Unfortunately, powerful airbag systems can be injurious to anyone in the path of the deploying airbag. This hazard is present for short statured individuals, out of position children or any occupant in a collision that results in extra ordinary crash sensing time. Currently, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is proposing to rewrite FMVSS 208 to help reduce such hazards.


1975 ◽  
Vol 12 (S1) ◽  
pp. 303-309
Author(s):  
Herbert Solomon

The trajectory of a car traveling at a constant speed on an idealized infinite highway can be viewed as a straight line in the time-space plane. Entry times are governed by a Poisson process with intensity parameter A leading to all trajectories as random lines in a plane. The Poisson distribution of number of encounters of cars on the highway is developed through random line models and non-homogeneous Poisson fields, and its parameter, which depends on the specific random measure employed, is obtained explicitly.


1972 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 451-456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lennart Råde

This paper discusses the response process when a Poisson process interacts with a renewal process in such a way that one or more points of the Poisson process eliminate a random number of consecutive points of the renewal process. A queuing situation is devised such that the c.d.f. of the length of the busy period is the same as the c.d.f. of the length of time intervals of the renewal response process. The Laplace-Stieltjes transform is obtained and from this the expectation of the time intervals of the response process is derived. For a special case necessary and sufficient conditions for the response process to be a Poisson process are found.


1989 ◽  
Vol 111 (3) ◽  
pp. 342-347
Author(s):  
Y. J. Chao ◽  
M. A. Sutton

Engineering personnel in industries which use pressurized containment vessels having attached nozzles are required not only to design portions of the lifting mechanism, but also to estimate the fluid volume which the vessel and nozzles will contain; most designers use simplified formulas for computing the quantities of interest. Typically, these formulas are valid approximations when the nozzle diameter is much smaller than the vessel diameter. The enclosed work develops three single-integral expressions which can be programmed and numerically integrated to obtain accurate estimates for both the material volume and also the containment volume present in a pair of eccentrically, or concentrically, intersecting thin-walled cylinders of arbitrary diameters. A table of such values is presented for a wide range of values of the standard nozzle pipe diameter and vessel diameter, for the special case of a concentric nozzle. In addition, an example is presented which compares the numerically integrated values for both the material volume and the containment volume to simplified upper and lower-bound estimates.


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