Forest Service Timber Sales: A Preliminary Evaluation of Policy Alternatives

Abstract Do unsold timber offerings indicate excessive, wasteful timber sales, as critics charge? Or are such offerings a normal part of timber markets and eventually sold? This study assessed unsold offerings in the Northern Region of the USDA Forest Service during 1961-1988 to determine the percentage, duration, and reasons for unsold offerings. About 7% of all offerings are initially unsold; moreover, the percentage has been rising during the past 3 decades. Although specific variables were poorly correlated with unsold offerings, regional timber availability seems to be the most important causal factor. About 60% of the volume in unsold offerings was eventually sold, averaging about 15 months to sell. West. J. Appl. For. 6(4):108-111.

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Separable Costs of Provisions for Nontimber Resources in Forest Service Timber Sales

Western Journal of Applied Forestry ◽

10.1093/wjaf/4.4.119 ◽

1989 ◽

Vol 4 (4) ◽

pp. 119-124 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Ervin G. Schuster ◽

Michael J. Niccolucci

Keyword(s):

Forest Service ◽

National Forests ◽

Adverse Impacts ◽

Timber Sales ◽

Actual Design ◽

The Cost

Abstract The authors investigated the separable costs of provisions to mitigate damage to or enhance nontimber resources in timber sales for national forests in the Northern and Intermountain Regions. Data were obtained from 224 timber sales made between 1983 and 1985. A "timber-only" design was developed for each sale, was compared to the actual design, and the loss in estimated stumpage receipts was used to reflect the cost due to nontimber considerations. This loss averaged about $20 per mbf (1985 dollars), much of which could be traced to reduced harvest volumes. Most modifications and associated costs were intended to mitigate adverse impacts and resulted from required, policy-based choices. West. J. Appl. For. 4(4):119-124, October 1989.

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Auctions with Resale Markets: An Application to U.S. Forest Service Timber Sales

The American Economic Review ◽

10.1257/aer.91.3.399 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 91 (3) ◽

pp. 399-427 ◽

Cited By ~ 112

Author(s):

Philip A Haile

Keyword(s):

Willingness To Pay ◽

Empirical Evidence ◽

Forest Service ◽

Secondary Market ◽

Policy Changes ◽

Common Value ◽

Timber Sales ◽

Option Values ◽

Standard Models

When bidders anticipate an opportunity for resale trade, the value of winning an auction is determined in part by the option values of buying and selling in the secondary market. One implication is that a bidder's willingness to pay at an auction increases with the expected level of competition between resale buyers. Empirical evidence from auctions of timber contracts supports this prediction and rejects standard models that ignore resale. The estimated effect is smaller after policy changes expected to diminish the prevalence of resale. Additional evidence supports the predicted presence of a common value element introduced by the resale opportunity. (JEL D44, D82, C52, L73)

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Analysis of Stumpage Rate Adjustment Policy on Western National Forests

Western Journal of Applied Forestry ◽

10.1093/wjaf/10.2.53 ◽

1995 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 53-58

Author(s):

Ervin G. Schuster ◽

Michael J. Niccolucci

Keyword(s):

Statistical Models ◽

Price Index ◽

Forest Service ◽

Western United States ◽

Usda Forest Service ◽

Flat Rate ◽

Adjustment Policy ◽

Timber Sales ◽

Rate Adjustment ◽

Bid Prices

Abstract This study analyzed the effect of USDA Forest Service stumpage rate adjustment (SRA) on timber revenues and initial stumpage bids. SRAs adjust harvest prices up or down from initial bid prices, based on subsequent product market indices. Revenue generation was addressed by simulating harvest revenues from 600 timber sales from the western United States during the 1980s and early 1990s. The current 50/100 policy (50% of price index increases and 100% of price index decreases) performed poorly, and the 100/50 option performed best. The effect of SRA policy on initial bid prices was analyzed with statistical models constructed from 1813 timber sales. In Region 6, stumpage prices received from flat rate sales exceeded those from SRA sales by about 3%, but in the aggregate of other western Regions (Regions 1-5), stumpage prices for SRA sales exceeded those of flat rate sales by about 12%. West. J. Appl. For. 10(2):53-58

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Preliminary Evaluation of a Weibull Function for Fitting Slow-Component Eye Velocity over the Time Course of Caloric-Induced Nystagmus

Journal of Speech Language and Hearing Research ◽

10.1044/jshr.3203.681 ◽

1989 ◽

Vol 32 (3) ◽

pp. 681-687 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

C. Formby ◽

B. Albritton ◽

I. M. Rivera

Keyword(s):

Time Course ◽

Slow Component ◽

Weibull Function ◽

Preliminary Evaluation ◽

Mathematical Function ◽

Before And After ◽

Best Fitting ◽

Eye Velocity ◽

Fitting Parameters ◽

Weibull Equation

We describe preliminary attempts to fit a mathematical function to the slow-component eye velocity (SCV) over the time course of caloric-induced nystagmus. Initially, we consider a Weibull equation with three parameters. These parameters are estimated by a least-squares procedure to fit digitized SCV data. We present examples of SCV data and fitted curves to show how adjustments in the parameters of the model affect the fitted curve. The best fitting parameters are presented for curves fit to 120 warm caloric responses. The fitting parameters and the efficacy of the fitted curves are compared before and after the SCV data were smoothed to reduce response variability. We also consider a more flexible four-parameter Weibull equation that, for 98% of the smoothed caloric responses, yields fits that describe the data more precisely than a line through the mean. Finally, we consider advantages and problems in fitting the Weibull function to caloric data.

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