Stochastic Compartmental Analysis: Model and Least Squares Estimation from Time Series Data

Biometrics ◽  
1971 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 77 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. H. Matis ◽  
H. O. Hartley
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Compartmental Analysis ◽  
Least Squares Estimation ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Model

scholarly journals Analisis Intervesi Fungsi Step Efek Program Tol-Laut Terhadap Pergerakan Harga Saham TMAS.JK

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (01) ◽  
pp. 47-54
Author(s):  
Wigid Hariadi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Step Function ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Intervention Analysis ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
External Events ◽  
Port Construction

Abstract. Intervention analysis is used to evaluate the effect of external events on a time series data. Sea-highway program is one of the leading programs Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla in presidential election 2014. So the author want to modeling the effect from Sea-highway programs on stock price movement in the shipping sector, TMAS.JK (Pelayaran Tempuran Emas tbk). After analyzing, proven that it has happened intervention on movement of daily stock price TMAS.JK caused by Sea-highway programs. Intervention I, on 11 August 2014, which was efect as a result of the election of the Joko Widodo-Jusuf kalla pair as President and vice President Republic of Indonesia on 22 july 2014. Intervention II, on 10 november 2014, president Joko Widodo speech in APEC about Sea-highway Program, and offering investment in port construction to foreign country. So that the model of time series analysis that right is intervention analysis model multi input step function, where the model is ARIMA (2,1,0), StepI (b=0, s=2, r=1), StepII (b=3, s=0, r=1).  Keywords: Intervention Analysis, Multi Input, Step Function, Sea-highway.    Abstrak. Analisis intervensi digunakan untuk mengevaluasi efek dari peristiwa eksternal pada suatu data time series. Program Tol-Laut merupakan salah satu program unggulan pasangan Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla dalam pemilu 2014. sehingga, penulis ingin memodelkan efek dari Program Tol-Laut terhadap pergerakan harga saham dibidang pelayaran, TMAS.JK (Pelayaran Tempuran Emas tbk). Setelah dilakukan analisis data, terbukti bahwa terjadi intervensi pada pergerakan harga saham harian TMAS.JK yang disebabkan oleh efek dari program Tol-Laut. Dimana intervensi I, pada tanggal 11 Agustus 2014, yang diduga sebagai dampak dari terpilihnya pasangan Joko widodo-Jusuf Kalla sebagai presiden dan wakil presiden Republik Indonesia pada tanggal 22 Juli 2014. Intervensi II, pada tanggal 10 November 2014, pidato Presiden Joko Widodo di forum APEC mengenai program  tol  laut, dan  menawarkan investasi dibidang pembangunan pelabuhan  kepada bangsa asing. Sehingga model analisis time series yang tepat adalah model analisis intervensi multi input fungsi step, dimana modelnya adalah ARIMA (2,1,0), StepI (b=0, s=2, r=1), StepII (b=3, s=0, r=1). Kata kunci: Analisis intervensi, Multi Input, fungsi step, Tol-Laut.

scholarly journals PENGARUH ZIS (ZAKAT, INFAK, SEDEKAH) DAN ZAKAT FITRAH TERHADAP PENURUNAN KEMISKINAN DI INDONESIA PERIODE 1998 - 2010

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Jumadin Lapopo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Independent Variables

<p>Poverty is being a problem in all developing countries including Indonesia. Among goverment programs, poverty has become the center offattention in policy at both of the regional and national levels. Looking at thephenomenon of poverty, Islam present with solution to reduce poverty through Zakat. This study aims to analyze the effect of ZIS and Zakat Fitrah against poverty in Indonesia in 1998 until 2010, data used in this study is secondary data and uses time series data, for the dependent variabel is poverty and for independent variables are ZIS and Zakat Fitrah. The analysis tools used in this study is to use multiple regression analysis model and the assumptions of classical test using the software Eviews-4. In this study also concluded that the ZIS variables significantly affect to the reduction of poverty in Indonesia although the effect is very small. In the variable Zakat Fitrah not significantly affect poverty reduction in Indonesia because of the nature of Zakat Fitrah is for consumption and not for long-term needs. The results of this study can be used for the management of zakat to be able to develop the management and to get a better system for distribution of zakat so that the main purpose of zakat can be achieved to reduce poverty.<br />Keywords : Poverty, Zakat Fitrah, ZIS.</p>

News Article Based Industry Risk Index Prediction for Industry-Specific Evaluation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyungwon Kim ◽  
Kyoungro Yoon
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Delay ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
News Article ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Specific Interest ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Long Time

The existing industry evaluation method utilizes the method of collecting the structured information such as the financial information of the companies included in the relevant industry and deriving the industrial evaluation index through the statistical analysis model. This method takes a long time to calculate the structured data and cause the time delay problem. In this paper, to solve this time delay problem, we derive monthly industry-specific interest and likability as a time series data type, which is a new industry evaluation indicator based on unstructured data. In addition, we propose a method to predict the industrial risk index, which is used as an important factor in industrial evaluation, based on derived industry-specific interest and likability time series data.

scholarly journals A Novel Time Series Prediction Approach Based on a Hybridization of Least Squares Support Vector Regression and Swarm Intelligence

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nhat-Duc Hoang ◽  
Anh-Duc Pham ◽  
Minh-Tu Cao
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Promising Alternative ◽  
Prediction Approach

This research aims at establishing a novel hybrid artificial intelligence (AI) approach, named as firefly-tuned least squares support vector regression for time series prediction(FLSVRTSP). The proposed model utilizes the least squares support vector regression (LS-SVR) as a supervised learning technique to generalize the mapping function between input and output of time series data. In order to optimize the LS-SVR’s tuning parameters, theFLSVRTSPincorporates the firefly algorithm (FA) as the search engine. Consequently, the newly construction model can learn from historical data and carry out prediction autonomously without any prior knowledge in parameter setting. Experimental results and comparison have demonstrated that theFLSVRTSPhas achieved a significant improvement in forecasting accuracy when predicting both artificial and real-world time series data. Hence, the proposed hybrid approach is a promising alternative for assisting decision-makers to better cope with time series prediction.

scholarly journals ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PERMINTAAN TENAGA LISTRIK KONSUMEN SEKTOR KONSUMTIF PERUSAHAAN LISTRIK NEGARA

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 330
Author(s):  
Aminullah Assagaf
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variable ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Data Distribution ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Independent Variable

This research aims to analyse electricity demand, and focus for consumptive sector in PT Perusahaan listrik Negara (Persero) or PT PLN (Persero). While selected by consumptive sector is some region in Jawa Bali and otuside Jawa Bali. Step of research and process result based on SPSS calculation, and use time series data year 1995 - 2009. As for used analysis model follow its data distribution that is the non linear regression model being based on Ln with dependent variable is demand electricity or kWh sales, and independent variable consist of install capacity, average tariff, and rate of capacity using percustomers. Obtain result that install capacity and rate of capacity using percustomers have given positif impact, and average tariff have given negative impact. All of that independent variable have significant influence, and install capacity variable most its influence significant to electricity demand of consumptive sector. PLN’s management has to observe growth of explanatory variable to make policy for demand and supply equilibrium and toward customers satisfaction.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PERMINTAAN TENAGA KERJA PADA PERUSAHAAN PERKEBUNAN SAWIT (Studi Kasus PT.SOCFINDO Perkebunan Seunagan Kabupaten Nagan Raya)

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Leli Putri Ansari
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Oil Palm ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Simultaneous Testing

AbstractThis study aims to analyze the effect of wages and production on oil palm plantation companies, a case study of PT.Socfindo Seunagan  Nagan Raya district. This research methode uses multiple liniear regression data analysis model. This research is quantitative and time series data for the period of 2005-2016 and data in the form of secondary data obtained from PT.Socfindo Seunagan  Nagan Raya district and Central Bureau of statistics (BPS) Nagan Raya district.Based on the results of research partial testing that wages have a significant influence on labor for demand. Where as production has no significant effect on the demand  for labor. Simultaneous testing that wages and production effect labor for demand Keyword: Wage, production, and labor for demand

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