Population Dynamics of the Wild Daffodil (Narcissus Pseudonarcissus): III. Implications of a Computer Model of 1000 Years of Population Change

1982 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 323 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. P. Barkham ◽  
C. E. Hance
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Computer Model ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Narcissus Pseudonarcissus

scholarly journals Increasing frequency of low summer precipitation synchronizes dynamics and compromises metapopulation stability in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

2015 ◽  
Vol 282 (1806) ◽  
pp. 20150173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayco J. M. Tack ◽  
Tommi Mononen ◽  
Ilkka Hanski
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Life History Stage ◽  
General Effect ◽  
Spatial Synchrony ◽  
Glanville Fritillary Butterfly ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Climate change is known to shift species' geographical ranges, phenologies and abundances, but less is known about other population dynamic consequences. Here, we analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of the Glanville fritillary butterfly ( Melitaea cinxia ) in a network of 4000 dry meadows during 21 years. The results demonstrate two strong, related patterns: the amplitude of year-to-year fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole has increased, though there is no long-term trend in average abundance; and there is a highly significant increase in the level of spatial synchrony in population dynamics. The increased synchrony cannot be explained by increasing within-year spatial correlation in precipitation, the key environmental driver of population change, or in per capita growth rate. On the other hand, the frequency of drought during a critical life-history stage (early larval instars) has increased over the years, which is sufficient to explain the increasing amplitude and the expanding spatial synchrony in metapopulation dynamics. Increased spatial synchrony has the general effect of reducing long-term metapopulation viability even if there is no change in average metapopulation size. This study demonstrates how temporal changes in weather conditions can lead to striking changes in spatio-temporal population dynamics.

scholarly journals Quantifying the effect of genetic, environmental and individual demographic stochastic variability for population dynamics in Plantago lanceolata

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrich K. Steiner ◽  
Shripad Tuljapurkar ◽  
Deborah A. Roach
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Adaptive Dynamics ◽  
Plantago Lanceolata ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Experimental Population ◽  
Stochastic Variation ◽  
Survival And Reproduction ◽  
Stochastic Events

AbstractSimple demographic events, the survival and reproduction of individuals, drive population dynamics. These demographic events are influenced by genetic and environmental parameters, and are the focus of many evolutionary and ecological investigations that aim to predict and understand population change. However, such a focus often neglects the stochastic events that individuals experience throughout their lives. These stochastic events also influence survival and reproduction and thereby evolutionary and ecological dynamics. Here, we illustrate the influence of such non-selective demographic variability on population dynamics using population projection models of an experimental population of Plantago lanceolata. Our analysis shows that the variability in survival and reproduction among individuals is largely due to demographic stochastic variation with only modest effects of differences in environment, genes, and their interaction. Common expectations of population growth, based on expected lifetime reproduction and generation time, can be misleading when demographic stochastic variation is large. Large demographic stochastic variation exhibited within genotypes can lower population growth and slow evolutionary adaptive dynamics. Our results accompany recent investigations that call for more focus on stochastic variation in fitness components, such as survival, reproduction, and functional traits, rather than dismissal of this variation as uninformative noise.

Population Dynamics of Municipalities in Central Russia

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (6) ◽  
pp. 97-124
Author(s):  
Irina Kalabikhina ◽  
Denis Mokrensky
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Elderly Population ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Central Russia ◽  
Population Concentration ◽  
Population Reduction ◽  
Demographic Policy

In this paper we present the results of the analysis of the population change in nonmetropolitan city municipalities by components and concentration of population in the municipalities were investigated, their typologization was developed in accordance with the contribution of various components to population dynamics. The article discusses the limitations of municipal statistics. The methods of average values, the balance equation, and the measures of population concentration are used. The main conclusions confirm the trends of population decline at the second stage of demographic policy, territorial unevenness and concentration of population in administrative centers and the closest settlements to them. Less than 2% of the municipalities in question demonstrate both natural and migratory growth, and in 70% of municipalities both migration and natural components make a contribution to population reduction. The relatively high proportion of the elderly population was observed in the studied municipalities; crude birth and death rates were worse than the average in the district.

scholarly journals Population dynamics of Saissetia oleae. II. Life-tables and key-factor analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 59 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. T. Kapatos ◽  
E.T. Stratopoulou
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Life Tables ◽  
Population Fluctuations ◽  
Mortality Factors ◽  
Population System ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Key Factor Analysis ◽  
Table Data

A series of life-tables for the population of Saisselia oleae (Oliv.) (Homoptera: Coccidae) during five yearly generations (1981-86) were constructed in Corfu. Key-factor analysis carried out on the life-table data indicated that mortality of young stages during summer, caused mainly by the high temperatures, and mortality during spring, caused mainly by predation, determine total population change within each generation. These two mortality factors are the predominant factors of the population dynamics of S. oleae determining population fluctuations. The other mortality factors of the population system of S. oleae were less important. Summer parasites and egg predators, in particular, do not play any significant role on the population dynamics of S. oleae.

scholarly journals Shifting trends: Detecting changes in cetacean population dynamics in shifting habitat

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. e0251522
Author(s):  
Charlotte Boyd ◽  
André E. Punt
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Distance Sampling ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Population Trend ◽  
Mobile Species ◽  
Population Size Estimates

The ability to monitor population dynamics and detect major changes in population trend is essential for wildlife conservation and management. However, this is often challenging for cetaceans as surveys typically cover only a portion of a population’s range and conventional stock assessment methods cannot then distinguish whether apparent changes in abundance reflect real changes in population size or shifts in distribution. We developed and tested methods for estimating population size and trend and detecting changes in population trend in the context of shifting habitat by integrating additional data into distance-sampling analysis. Previous research has shown that incorporating habitat information can improve population size estimates for highly mobile species with dynamic spatial distributions. Here, using simulated datasets representative of a large whale population, we demonstrate that incorporating individual mark-recapture data can increase the accuracy and precision of trend estimation and the power to distinguish whether apparent changes in abundance reflect changes in population trend or distribution shifts. We recommend that similar simulation studies are conducted for specific cetacean populations to assess the potential for detecting changes in population dynamics given available data. This approach is especially important wherever population change may be confounded with long-term change in distribution patterns associated with regime shifts or climate change.

scholarly journals Population dynamics and natural hazard risk management: conceptual and practical linkages for the case of Austrian policy making

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Clar ◽  
Lukas Löschner ◽  
Ralf Nordbeck ◽  
Tatjana Fischer ◽  
Thomas Thaler
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Demographic Change ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Hazard Risk ◽  
Hazard Risk Management

Abstract This contribution explores the conceptual and empirical linkages between population dynamics and natural hazard risk management (NHRM). Following a review of the international scholarly literature, we conduct a mixed-methods approach in Austria, combining an online survey among policy makers and other stakeholders with a thematic analysis of policy documents. The aim is to investigate the practical relevance of socio-demographic change in Austria’s NHRM. The study shows that many hazard-prone regions in Austria face population change, in particular demographic ageing and population decline. In addition, our findings from the online survey demonstrate the relevance of population dynamics in NHRM, especially with regard to hazard response and recovery. Nonetheless, policy formulation in NHRM overwhelmingly disregards demographic change as a relevant factor. Accordingly, the study underscores the importance of future-oriented risk management strategies to better account for ongoing and expected socio-demographic changes.

scholarly journals Computer simulations for biological aging and sexual reproduction

2001 ◽  
Vol 73 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
DIETRICH STAUFFER ◽  
PAULO M.C. DE OLIVEIRA ◽  
SUZANA MOSS DE OLIVEIRA ◽  
THADEU J.P. PENNA ◽  
JORGE S. SÁ MARTINS
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Sexual Reproduction ◽  
Computer Simulations ◽  
Computer Model ◽  
Monte Carlo Methods ◽  
Mutation Accumulation ◽  
Biological Aging ◽  
Penna Model ◽  
Theory Of Aging

The sexual version of the Penna model of biological aging, simulated since 1996, is compared here with alternative forms of reproduction as well as with models not involving aging. In particular we want to check how sexual forms of life could have evolved and won over earlier asexual forms hundreds of million years ago. This computer model is based on the mutation-accumulation theory of aging, using bits-strings to represent the genome. Its population dynamics is studied by Monte Carlo methods.

scholarly journals Population growth rates: issues and an application

2002 ◽  
Vol 357 (1425) ◽  
pp. 1307-1319 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Charles J. Godfray ◽  
Mark Rees
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Evolutionarily Stable Strategy ◽  
Model Systems ◽  
Population Growth Rates

Current issues in population dynamics are discussed in the context of The Royal Society Discussion Meeting 'Population growth rate: determining factors and role in population regulation'. In particular, different views on the centrality of population growth rates to the study of population dynamics and the role of experiments and theory are explored. Major themes emerging include the role of modern statistical techniques in bringing together experimental and theoretical studies, the importance of long-term experimentation and the need for ecology to have model systems, and the value of population growth rate as a means of understanding and predicting population change. The last point is illustrated by the application of a recently introduced technique, integral projection modelling, to study the population growth rate of a monocarpic perennial plant, its elasticities to different life-history components and the evolution of an evolutionarily stable strategy size at flowering.

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