Incumbent Effects on Individual-Level Voting Behavior in Congressional Elections: A Decade of Exaggeration

1985 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 958-967 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert B. Eubank
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Individual Level

Ideology and the US Congressional Vote

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 323-341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boris Shor ◽  
Jon C. Rogowski
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Spatial Proximity ◽  
Congressional Voting ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Voter Preferences ◽  
The Us ◽  
Spatial Estimates ◽  
Voter Decision Making

A large class of theoretical models posits that voters choose candidates on the basis of issue congruence, but convincing empirical tests of this key claim remain elusive. The most persistent difficulty is obtaining comparable spatial estimates for winning and losing candidates, as well as voters. We address these issues using candidate surveys to characterize the electoral platforms for winners and losers, and large issue batteries in 2008 and 2010 to estimate voter preferences. Questions that were answered by both candidates and citizens allow us to jointly scale these estimates. We find robust evidence that vote choice in congressional elections is both strongly associated with spatial proximity and that individual-level and contextual variables commonly associated with congressional voting behavior condition the magnitude of its importance. Our results have important implications for theories of voter decision-making and electoral institutions.

scholarly journals Majority Black Districts, Republican Ascendancy, and Party Competition in the South, 1988-2000

2002 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
pp. 123-139
Author(s):  
Seth C. McKee
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
Deep South ◽  
The South ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Impact

This article analyzes the impact of race-based redistricting and the Republican trend on party competition in races for the U.S. House of Representatives in the South from 1988 to 2000. The region is divided into sub-regions (Deep and Peripheral) in order to show that the combination of reapportionment and newly created majority black districts disproportionately crowds out white Democratic representatives in the Deep South. It is argued that race-based redistricting serves as an accelerating mechanism that hastens the secular realignment of whites into the Republican Party. Aggregate and individual level data are presented to illustrate the effect of the Republican trend and majority black districts on party competition and voting behavior in congressional elections.

scholarly journals Preferences, vote choice, and the politics of social investment: Addressing the puzzle of unequal benefits of childcare provision

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
ERIK NEIMANNS
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Social Investment ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Individual Preferences ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Research Gap ◽  
Original Survey

Abstract Research on the politics of social investment finds public opinion to be highly supportive of expansive reforms and expects this support to matter for the politics of expanding social investment. Expanding social investment, it is argued, should be particularly attractive to left-wing voters and parties because of the egalitarian potential of such policies. However, few studies have examined to what extent individual preferences concerning social investment really matter politically. In this paper, I address this research gap for the crucial policy field of childcare by examining how individual-level preferences for expanding childcare provision translate into voting behavior. Based on original survey data from eight European countries, I find that preferences to expand public childcare spending indeed translate into electoral support for the left. However, this link from preferences to votes turns out to be socially biased. Childcare preferences are much more decisive for voting the further up individuals are in the income distribution. This imperfect transmission from preferences to voting behavior implies that political parties could have incentives to target the benefits of childcare reforms to their more affluent voters. My findings help to explain why governments frequently fail to reduce social inequality of access to seemingly egalitarian childcare provision.

Economic Expectations and Voting Behavior in United States House and Senate Elections

1981 ◽  
Vol 75 (2) ◽  
pp. 436-447 ◽  
Author(s):  
James H. Kuklinski ◽  
Darrell M. West
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
United States Senate ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Public ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Economic Expectations

Past individual-level studies of economic voting (1) have incorrectly operationalized the model they employ by using past-oriented rather than future-oriented questions and (2) have failed to examine the level of economic voting in United States Senate elections. Using the 1978 National Election Study, we show that economic voting exists in Senate but not House elections, presumably due to the differences in electoral context. Even when economic voting occurs, however, there is no guarantee that the public will influence the direction of macroeconomic policy.

On the Issues Surrounding Economic Voting

1987 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOHN R. HIBBING
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
The United States ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Individual

This is an analysis of the effects of economic factors on voting behavior in the United Kingdom. Aggregate- and individual-level data are used. When the results are compared to findings generated by the United States case, some intriguing differences appear. To mention just two examples, unemployment and inflation seem to be much more important in the United Kingdom than in the United States, and changes in real per capita income are positively related to election results in the United States and negatively related in the United Kingdom. More generally, while the aggregate results are strong and the individual-level results weak in the United States, in the United Kingdom the situation is practically reversed.

The Changing Swedish Electorate

1981 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-204 ◽  
Author(s):  
John D. Stephens
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Social ◽  
Electoral Strategies ◽  
Class Voting ◽  
Socioeconomic Composition

This article attempts to assess the contribution of long-term changes in Swedish social structure to three recent developments in Swedish electoral behavior: the decline of the Social Democrats, the decline in class voting, and the increase in the volatility of party preference. The author argues that the decline of the Social Democrats cannot be attributed to long-term structural changes in the electorate but rather is a product of the policies and electoral strategies pursued by the parties. The decline in class voting is found to be partly attributable to long-term structural change. Original secondary analysis of survey data is then presented to show that the socioeconomic composition of individuals' places of residence affects their voting behavior independent of individual-level characteristics. The author then argues that the parties' policies and electoral strategies have reinforced the tendency toward decreasing class voting. Finally, both long-term structural changes and the decline in class voting itself appear to have caused the increase in the volatility of party choice.

Partisan Orientations over the Long Haul: Results from the Three-Wave Political Socialization Panel Study

1984 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 1000-1018 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Kent Jennings ◽  
Gregory B. Markus
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Consistent Reinforcement ◽  
Generational Effects ◽  
School Senior ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Voting Choice ◽  
The Relationship

The present study examines the dynamics of partisanship and voting behavior by utilizing national survey panel data gathered in 1965, 1973, and 1982 from two strategically situated generations—members of the high school senior class of 1965 and their parents. At the aggregate level, generational effects appeared in the persistently weaker partisan attachments of the younger generation. At the individual level, strong effects based on experience and habituation appeared in the remarkable gains occurring in the stability of partisan and other orientations among the young as they aged from their mid-20s to their mid-30s. Dynamic modeling of the relationship between partisanship and voting choice demonstrated that the younger voters had stabilized at an overall weaker level of partisanship, leading to more volatile voting behavior which, in turn, failed to provide the consistent reinforcement needed to intensify preexisting partisan leanings.

Voters and Voting in Context

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christof Wolf
Keyword(s):  
Media Coverage ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Contextual Information ◽  
Contextual Effects ◽  
Opinion Formation ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Early Twenty ◽  
Campaign Communication ◽  
The Impact

This book investigates the role of context in affecting political opinion formation and voting behavior. Building on a model of contextual effects on individual-level voter behavior, the chapters of this volume explore contextual effects in Germany in the early twenty-first century. The contributions draw on manifold combinations of individual and contextual information gathered in the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) framework and employ advanced methods. In substantive terms, they investigate the impact of campaign communication on political learning, the effects of media coverage on the perceived importance of political problems, and the role of electoral competition on candidate strategies and perceptions. Other contributions deal with the role of social and economic contexts as well as parties’ policy stances in affecting electoral turnout. The chapters on vote choice explore the impact of social cues on candidate voting, effects of electoral arenas on vote functions, the role of media coverage on ideological voting, and effects of campaign communication on the timing of electoral decision-making. The volume demonstrates the key role of the processes of communication and politicization in bringing about contextual effects. Context thus plays a nuanced role in voting behavior. The contingency of contextual effects suggests that they should become an important topic in research on political behavior and democratic politics.

The Preference for Moderation Scale

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aimee Drolet ◽  
Mary Frances Luce ◽  
L I Jiang ◽  
Benjamin C Rossi ◽  
Reid Hastie
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Consumer Decision Making ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Representativeness Heuristic ◽  
Individual Difference Variables ◽  
Behavior Study ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Heuristic Study ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract We propose that individual differences in the value placed on the principle of moderation exist and influence many aspects of consumer decision-making. The idea that moderation is an important guiding norm of human behavior is prevalent throughout history and an explicit theme in many philosophies, religions, and cultures. Yet, moderation has not been studied as an individual-level determinant of consumer behavior. We develop a scale that measures the degree to which individuals have a Preference for Moderation (PFM). The PFM scale predicts consequential behavior in many decision contexts. We first report on scale development, including the generation and selection of items. We then report analyses showing that PFM is distinct from several popular individual-difference variables. Related to cultural background, PFM reliably predicts the use of compromise (study 1) and balancing (vs. highlighting) strategies (study 2), as well as various decision-making behaviors, including reliance on the representativeness heuristic (study 3), self-reported financial habits and outcomes (studies 4–5), real-world online-reviewing behavior (study 6), and split-ticket voting behavior in the 2018 US midterm elections (study 7).

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