scholarly journals Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models of Primary Commodity Markets with Private and Government Stockholding

1993 ◽  
Vol 75 (3) ◽  
pp. 463 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario J. Miranda ◽  
Joseph W. Glauber
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Commodity Markets ◽  
Primary Commodity ◽  
Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models

Testing rational expectations in primary commodity markets

2005 ◽  
Vol 37 (15) ◽  
pp. 1705-1718 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Pieroni * ◽  
Matteo Ricciarelli
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Commodity Markets ◽  
Primary Commodity

Rebel Primary Commodity Markets, Price Shocks, and Supplier Victimization

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chelsea L Estancona
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Price ◽  
Commodity Markets ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Supplier Relationships ◽  
Primary Commodity ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Commodity Price Shocks ◽  
Reputational Costs ◽  
Municipal Level ◽  
Do So

Abstract Rebel organizations often benefit from the sale of primary commodities. However, producing these commodities may require labor from noncombatants. Rebels provide security and payment to civilian suppliers, but their ability to do so depends on consistent profits. How, then, do price shocks to labor-intensive primary commodities undermine rebel–supplier relationships? I hypothesize that negative commodity price shocks lead cash-strapped rebels to ensure suppliers’ loyalty by substituting coercion for positive incentives. Conversely, states seek to limit rapid increases in rebels’ profit while avoiding the reputational costs of civilian victimization. Thus, victimization of rebel suppliers from groups such as pro-government paramilitaries is hypothesized to increase after positive commodity price shocks. I test these hypotheses with a new dataset covering 1999–2007 that combines monthly US STRIDE (System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence) data on cocaine price with municipal-level data from the Colombian Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica about the FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) and paramilitary groups’ use of civilian victimization.

scholarly journals A Review of Alternative Expectations Regimes in Commodity Markets: Specification, Estimation, and Hypothesis Testing Using Structural Models

1996 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana M. Burton ◽  
H. Alan Love
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Structural Models ◽  
Commodity Markets ◽  
Information Collection ◽  
Industry Studies ◽  
Price Expectations ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
Widespread Acceptance

Price expectations play a critical role in commodity markets where producers must make input decisions well before output is realized. This paper brings together alternative expectations regimes, their estimation, and hypothesis tests for use in structural commodity models to determine their use by commodity producers. Extrapolative mechanisms and rational expectations are considered under risk neutrality and risk aversion. The assumptions implicit in the use of aggregate data in these models are made explicit. Structural models using individual survey data are discussed. While Muth's rational expectations hypothesis has found widespread acceptance in the macroeconomic literature, empirical results from industry studies indicate that commodity producers may have heterogeneous price expectations, with no single expectations hypothesis dominating. This is not surprising given that different producers possess different information and have different costs associated with information collection and processing.

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