Interest Rate Linkages Within the European Monetary System: Further Analysis

1993 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 771 ◽  
Author(s):  
George M. Katsimbris ◽  
Stephen M. Miller
1990 ◽  
Vol 132 ◽  
pp. 9-24

Since last November we have based our forecasts on the assumption that the UK will soon become a full member of the European Monetary System. There has been no change in the official position on entry to confirm or correct that assumption, but recent hints and rumours make clear that it is the right assumption to make. We retain it for this forecast. The actual date of entry is now more likely to be in the first half of next year; a fall in the rate of inflation is seen as a precondition, and it is one which may not now be fulfilled as soon as we had hoped. We assume that some announcement on the ERM is made about the end of the year, permitting an interest-rate cut in the first quarter, followed by formal accession by the second quarter, about the time of the Budget.


1979 ◽  
Vol 87 ◽  
pp. 5-12 ◽  

The most striking feature of the Bremen proposals for a new European Monetary System (EMS) was the scepticism, and in many cases hostility, with which they were received by professional economists. The main positions on macro-economic questions—orthodox, monetarist and international monetarist—were all represented among the economists who submitted written evidence to the House of Commons Expenditure Committee, when it examined the EMS proposals last November. All doubted whether the proposals, so far as they were then known, could work, and some predicted an early breakdown. Some took the view that, even if the scheme could work, it would not be to Britain's advantage to join. Such convergence of opinion among professional economists, with monetarists and Keynesians appearing to be in the same camp, is sufficiently unusual to deserve notice. Nor is this just an example of the British giving voice to the prevalent anti-European feeling. German economists, represented for example by the five Institutes, have been similarly sceptical.


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