Interpreting House Midterm Elections: Toward a Measurement of the In-Party's “Expected” Loss of Seats

1967 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
pp. 694-700 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Hinckley
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
The Other ◽  
Large Majority ◽  
Expected Loss ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
House Election ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Election Studies

Midterm congressional elections have been subjected to relatively little analysis. This is surprising because these elections exhibit three quite striking features which, when taken together, call for further explanation. First, every midterm House election since the Civil War, with the exception of 1934, has brought a net loss of seats to the President's party. Second, in the large majority of elections the net loss has approximated the gross loss. The in-party (i.e., the President's party) seldom has captured seats from the other party to offset its own loss. And third, although the in-party's loss has been persistent, the number of seats lost has varied widely.Attempts to incorporate midterm elections into a broader interpretive framework of American election studies usually stress one of the first two features outlined above. The fact that only the in-party loses—and that its losses are mainly in marginal districts—has led commentators such as V. O. Key Jr. and the authors of The American Voter to interpret these midterm elections as part of the stable, long-term trends in voters' party allegiance.

The Electoral Allure of Direct Democracy: The Effect of Initiative Salience on Voting, 1990-96

2005 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 168-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Lacey
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The Other ◽  
Ballot Initiatives ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Election Studies

Do salient ballot initiatives stimulate voting? Recent studies have shown that initiatives increase voter turnout, but some methodological concerns still linger. These studies have either relied solely on aggregate data to make inferences about individual-level behavior or used a flawed measure of initiative salience. Using individual-level data from the National Election Studies, I find that ballot question salience indeed stimulated voting in the midterm elections of 1990 and 1994. In an election with moderately salient ballot questions, a person's likelihood of voting can increase by as much as 30 percent in a midterm election. On the other hand, consistent with most prior research, I find no statistically significant relationship between ballot question salience and voting in presidential elections.

Ending Civil Wars: A Case for Rebel Victory?

2010 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 7-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Duffy Toft
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
The Other ◽  
War Termination ◽  
Negotiated Settlement ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Negotiated Settlements

Since 1990, negotiated settlements have become the preferred means for settling civil wars. Historically, however, these types of settlements have proven largely ineffective: civil wars ended by negotiated settlement are more likely to recur than those ending in victory by one side or the other. A theoretical and statistical analysis of how civil wars end reveals that the type of ending influences the prospects for longer-term outcomes. An examination of all civil war endings since 1940 finds that rebel victories are more likely to secure the peace than are negotiated settlements. A statistical analysis of civil wars from 1940 to 2002 and the case of Uganda illustrate why rebel victories result in more stable outcomes. Expanding scholarly and policy analysis of civil war termination types beyond the current default of negotiated settlement to include victories provides a much larger set of cases and variables to draw upon to enhance understanding of the conditions most likely to support long-term stability, democracy, and prosperity.

An “Authoritarian Spring?” Authoritarianism and the 2018 Midterm Elections

The Forum ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 515-545
Author(s):  
Anne M. Cizmar ◽  
John McTague
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Campaign Messages ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Election Studies

Abstract This paper examines the role of authoritarianism in the 2018 US congressional elections. In particular, we assess whether the issues that have historically been central to the authoritarian divide in the American electorate were salient in the campaigns of several important Senate races. We demonstrate that authoritarian attitudes played a consistent, significant role on presidential vote choice, party identification, and numerous policy areas in the 2016 presidential election using data from the American National Election Studies. Using case studies of six Senate races in the 2018 midterm elections, we find that authoritarianism was more muted than in 2016, and that the role of authoritarianism varied considerably depending upon the race. States with stronger Trump support in 2016 featured authoritarianism more heavily than states with less Trump support in 2016, but authoritarianism overall was not as prominent in 2018 as in 2016. Overall, Senate candidates relied on traditional campaign messages related to candidate qualifications, personal attacks, the economy, and other messages less central to authoritarianism.

scholarly journals An initial investigation of the long-term trends in the fluxgate magnetometer (FGM) calibration parameters on the four Cluster spacecraft

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. N. S. Alconcel ◽  
P. Fox ◽  
P. Brown ◽  
T. M. Oddy ◽  
E. L. Lucek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Field Data ◽  
Initial Study ◽  
The Other ◽  
Fluxgate Magnetometer ◽  
Magnetic Field Data ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Sensor Temperature ◽  
Calibration Parameters

Abstract. Over the course of more than 10 years in operation, the calibration parameters of the outboard fluxgate magnetometer (FGM) sensors on the four Cluster spacecraft are shown to be remarkably stable. The parameters are refined on the ground during the rigorous FGM calibration process performed for the Cluster Active Archive (CAA). Fluctuations in some parameters show some correlation with trends in the sensor temperature (orbit position). The parameters, particularly the offsets, of the spacecraft 1 (C1) sensor have undergone more long-term drift than those of the other spacecraft (C2, C3 and C4) sensors. Some potentially anomalous calibration parameters have been identified and will require further investigation in future. However, the observed long-term stability demonstrated in this initial study gives confidence in the accuracy of the Cluster magnetic field data. For the most sensitive ranges of the FGM instrument, the offset drift is typically 0.2 nT per year in each sensor on C1 and negligible on C2, C3 and C4.

Time for Health

A Child's Day ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 59-86
Author(s):  
Killian Mullan
Keyword(s):  
Screen Time ◽  
Physical Activities ◽  
The Other ◽  
Prevalence Of Obesity ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Sport And Exercise ◽  
The One ◽  
Watching Tv ◽  
Widespread View

This chapter examines associations between children's time use and a range of different health outcomes. Concerns about the prevalence of obesity and being overweight among children, and associated health problems, have drawn attention to questions around whether children are spending too much time in sedentary screen-based activities on the one hand and not enough time in active physical activities on the other. Technological change has greatly enhanced the capacity for children to spend time in a wide variety of screen-based activities, and persistent concerns about children's safety outdoors have led to increasing restrictions on the time children spend outside. These factors have likely coalesced over recent decades, resulting in children leading lives that are less active and spent indoors focused on screens. The widespread view is that this is indeed the case. Considering the evidence for this, the chapter analyses long-term trends in screen time (comprised of time watching TV, using computers, and playing video games) alongside trends in physical activities such as sport and exercise, play outside the home, and active travel (walking and cycling).

Swing Time: Assessing Causes for Shifts in Congressional Elections

1984 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronald B. Rapoport
Keyword(s):  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Voting Behaviour ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Electoral Change ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Voter Decision Making ◽  
Sectional Analysis

Most research on voting behaviour and elections has focused on cross-sectional analysis of particular elections. This technique is very useful in telling us about the influences on individual voter decision making. Less commonly research has focused on short-term electoral change, and has tried to explain specific election results with respect to one another, or in relation to long-term trends.

Historical trends in spring ice breakup for the Aura River in Southwest Finland, AD 1749–2018

The Holocene ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 953-963 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Norrgård ◽  
Samuli Helama
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
The Other ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
Single Time ◽  
Climate Research ◽  
Ice Breakup ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Long Term Trends

Ice breakup (IBU) observations have been recorded for Aura River in Turku, southwest Finland, since the mid-18th century. The latest long-term investigation covered the period 1749–1906, but the series contains several biases. In this article, we present a fully revised and extended IBU series (1749–2018) of Aura River for climate research purposes. Instead of typical univariate IBU data (a single time series with one data point per year), this series includes three different types of IBU data. These are the initial observations of the ice starting to break up (IBU1), the river recorded as free from ice within city limits (IBU2) and, finally, the arrival of the ice from behind the Halinen dam, the so-called Halinen ice (IBU3). The IBU1 series shows negative, statistically significant long-term trends since 1749. While the other two phenological events also exhibit negative long-term trends, indicative of earlier and warmer springs towards the present day, their trends are not significant over multi-centurial scales. The IBU2 series is the only series covering the entire period, and it shows a significant negative trend towards earlier breakups (16 days) between 1919 and 2018. Consequently, breakups in March, which were extremely rare before the 1900s, have become common, while breakups in May (previously once per decade) have not occurred since 1881. These results are indicative of sub-seasonal trends in the breakups. Our results also confirm defects in the previous time series, which shows a bias of up to 16 days.

Continuity and Change in House Elections Edited by David W. Brady, John F. Cogan, and Morris P. Fiorina. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2000. 297p. $55.00 cloth, $22.95 paper.

2002 ◽  
Vol 96 (3) ◽  
pp. 631-632
Author(s):  
Patricia Conley
Keyword(s):  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Stanford University ◽  
New Era ◽  
Continuity And Change ◽  
The Past ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Solid Foundation ◽  
Proper Context

For years, congressional elections were ignored or treated as fairly straightforward and predictable. The Democrats controlled the House. Incumbents nearly always won. Voters chose the candidate who would deliver the local goods. The magnitude of the Republican victory in the 1994 midterms set politicians, journalists, and scholars on a search to find an explanation that would place the election in the proper context. Was 1994 an outlier or the beginning of a new era? This volume places the 1990s in the context of the past 40 years of House elections and provides a solid foundation for gauging whether 1994 was the culmination of long-term trends or a dramatic break with the past.

scholarly journals An initial investigation of the long-term trends in the fluxgate magnetometer (FGM) calibration parameters on the four Cluster spacecraft

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-84
Author(s):  
L. N. S. Alconcel ◽  
P. Fox ◽  
P. Brown ◽  
T. M. Oddy ◽  
E. L. Lucek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Field Data ◽  
Initial Study ◽  
The Other ◽  
Fluxgate Magnetometer ◽  
Magnetic Field Data ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Sensor Temperature ◽  
Calibration Parameters

Abstract. Over the course of more than ten years in operation, the calibration parameters of the outboard fluxgate magnetometer (FGM) sensors on the four Cluster spacecraft are shown to be remarkably stable. The parameters are refined on the ground during the rigorous FGM calibration process performed for the Cluster Active Archive (CAA). Fluctuations in some parameters show some correlation with trends in the sensor temperature (orbit position). The parameters, particularly the offsets, of the Spacecraft1 (C1) sensor have undergone more long-term drift than those of the other spacecraft (C2, C3 and C4) sensors. Some potentially anomalous calibration parameters have been identified and will require further investigation in future. However, the observed long-term stability demonstrated in this initial study gives confidence in the relative accuracy of the Cluster magnetic field data. For the most sensitive ranges of the FGM instrument, the offset drift is typically 0.2 nT yr−1 in each sensor on C1 and negligible on C2, C3 and C4.

Nationalization and Partisan Realignment in Congressional Elections

1987 ◽  
Vol 81 (4) ◽  
pp. 1235-1250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sadafumi Kawato
Keyword(s):  
Variance Components ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Congressional Vote ◽  
Electoral Change ◽  
Partisan Realignment ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The U.S

The relationship between nationalization of the U.S. electorate and partisan realignment is explored. Concepts and measurement of nationalization are examined, as well as definitions of electoral change. The British concept of swing is utilized as an appropriate measure of electoral change. Examination of long-term trends in the variances of the congressional vote and swing from 1842 to 1980 shows they are related to the electoral dynamics of realignment. Analysis utilizing a variance-components model shows there has never been a nationalization in terms of configuration of the electorate. But nationalization in the movement of the electorate has taken place cyclically, corresponding to the partisan realignments of the 1890s and the 1930s, rather than monotonically, as suggested by previous research.

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