Long-range World Population Projections: Two Centuries of Population Growth, 1950-2150.

1992 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 566
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
World Population

Rapid Population Growth and Long-term Development

2020 ◽  
pp. 164-177
Author(s):  
Giovanni Andrea Cornia
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Resource Availability ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
World Population ◽  
Rapid Population Growth ◽  
The World

This chapter reviews population trends over the last two hundred years and population projections to the end of this century. In 2100 the world population will have stabilized but its geographical distribution will have substantially changed compared to 2015. The chapter then discusses the five stages of the demographic transition, and different neo-Malthusian and non-Malthusian theories of the relation between population growth and economic development. It emphasizes in particular the effects of rapid population growth on land and resource availability, human capital formation, population quality, the accumulation of physical capital, employment, wages, and income inequality. The effects of rapid population growth rate over a given period were found to change in line with the population size and density at the beginning of the period considered.

scholarly journals Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (50) ◽  
pp. 14294-14299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guy J. Abel ◽  
Bilal Barakat ◽  
Samir KC ◽  
Wolfgang Lutz
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Reproductive Health ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
World Population ◽  
World Population Growth ◽  
Mortality Differentials ◽  
Development Goals

Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.

United Nations Report: World Population Projections to 2150

1998 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 115-118 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Nations ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
World Population ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Critical Importance ◽  
The World ◽  
The United Nations ◽  
United Nations Population Division

The long-range population projections presented here, prepared by the United Nations Population Division, cover the period from 1950 to 2150. A total of seven projections for each of the eight major areas of the world are considered in this report. The variants are distinguished by their assumptions regarding future scenarios in total fertility rates. The range of potential demographic outcomes underscores the difficulty in focusing on any particular scenario and also highlights the critical importance of current policies and actions for the long-range future of the world population.

Population growth is a big speed breaker at this juncture in India

2019 ◽  
Vol 118 (9) ◽  
pp. 245-257
Author(s):  
Dr. DR Agarwal ◽  
Ms. Bhawna
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Continuous Process ◽  
Future Generation ◽  
World Population ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Solid Waste Disposal ◽  
Poverty Eradication ◽  
Conservation Of Natural Resources ◽  
Desired Family Size ◽  
Acute Crisis

After the dawn of independence in 1947, India moved on the path of planned development after launching a series of five years plans with the objective of creating a socialistic pattern of society that is the growth with social justice. In a welfare society, the functions of the govt. increases extensively and intensively. Gone are the days when functions of the govt. were limited to internal law and order and war preparedness (internal and external security). To provide all basic needs of the lowest and disadvantageous section of the society is considered to be duty of the govt. Education, health, power, sanitation, transport, communication, growth through distributive justice, linking of employment process with planned development, balanced regional development, social welfare and social security, clean drinking water, rural development, expansion of production and productive resources, equitable distribution of income and assets, removal of poverty, eradication of illiteracy, reduction in regional disparities, price stability, empowerment of the weaker section of the society, research and development with application of science, improvement in technology and productivity, conservation of natural resources for future generation, continuous process of change for better standard of life, human dignity and values, environmental balances etc. On the other side, India’s population grew at 1.2% a year between 2010 and 2019 marginally higher than global average of 1.1% a year in this period, but more than double china’s 0.5% a year according to UN population fund state of the world’s population 2018, released on 10-04-2019. India’s population growth = Population growth rate of China + Population growth of US = 0.5 + 0.7. Moreover, actual fertility rate children per women is 2.1 against the desired family size of 1.8. India has over 18% of the world population but just 4% of its fresh water resources. This is going to create a big demand for all kinds of commodities. The propensity to generate waste is increasing (waste is associated with food such as milk packets and water bottles piling up and solid waste disposal is acute crisis in big cities). All efforts of growth of G D P may go futile, if population growth remains unchecked. This paper highlights the consequences.

Global Earthquake Fatalities and Population

2013 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas L. Holzer ◽  
James C. Savage
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
21St Century ◽  
World Population ◽  
Background Rate ◽  
Death Toll ◽  
World Population Growth ◽  
Human Death ◽  
Earthquake Fatalities

Modern global earthquake fatalities can be separated into two components: (1) fatalities from an approximately constant annual background rate that is independent of world population growth and (2) fatalities caused by earthquakes with large human death tolls, the frequency of which is dependent on world population. Earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (and 50,000) have increased with world population and obey a nonstationary Poisson distribution with rate proportional to population. We predict that the number of earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (50,000) will increase in the 21st century to 8.7±3.3 (20.5±4.3) from 4 (7) observed in the 20th century if world population reaches 10.1 billion in 2100. Combining fatalities caused by the background rate with fatalities caused by catastrophic earthquakes ( >100,000 fatalities) indicates global fatalities in the 21st century will be 2.57±0.64 million if the average post-1900 death toll for catastrophic earthquakes (193,000) is assumed.

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