Explaining Self-Defeating Foreign Policy Decisions: Interpreting Soviet Arms for Egypt in 1973 Through Process or Domestic Bargaining Models?

1992 ◽  
Vol 86 (3) ◽  
pp. 759-766 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard D. Anderson ◽  
Margaret G. Hermann ◽  
Charles F. Hermann
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Information Processing ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
Bargaining Models ◽  
Level Model ◽  
Causal Sequence ◽  
Level Process ◽  
Two Level Model

How should we explain why a state sometimes adopts a foreign policy in one region that interferes with its concurrent policies elsewhere? In their article in the March 1989 issue of this Review, Stewart, Hermann and Hermann proposed a three-level process model of foreign policy to explain such Soviet behavior towards Egypt in 1973. The analysis has continuing interest because it interprets the puzzling behavior as a manifestation of general problems of information processing in making foreign policy choices. Richard Anderson suggests that a two-level model of domestic bargaining better accounts for the causal sequence in Soviet-Egyptian relations and is in general more parsimonious. Margaret and Charles Hermann defend their substantive analysis and argue in any case for the complementarity of process and bargaining approaches.

Introduction

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Jeffrey A. Friedman
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Probabilistic Reasoning ◽  
International Politics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
Policy Analysts ◽  
Bay Of Pigs

This chapter describes widespread skepticism regarding the value of assessing uncertainty in international politics. “Agnostics” argue that assessments of uncertainty in international politics are too unreliable to be useful for shaping major foreign policy decisions. “Rejectionists” argue that attempting to assess uncertainty in international politics can be counterproductive, surrounding foreign policy analyses with illusions of rigor or exposing foreign policy analysts to excessive criticism. “Cynics” claim that foreign policy analysts and decision makers have self-interested motives to avoid assessing uncertainty. The chapter explains how these ideas lead many scholars, practitioners, and pundits to avoid holding careful debates about the risks surrounding major foreign policy choices. The chapter describes how this aversion to probabilistic reasoning appears in several high-profile cases, such as President Kennedy’s decision to authorize the Bay of Pigs invasion and President Obama’s decision to raid Osama bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan.

Framing the National Interest: The Manipulation of Foreign Policy Decisions in Group Settings

1990 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeev Maoz
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Group Dynamics ◽  
Group Discussion ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Group Discussions ◽  
Individual Preferences ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
Group Settings ◽  
Crisis Conditions

Social psychologists have long attempted to explain the group-induced shift phenomenon: that it is impossible to predict group choices from knowledge of individual preferences prior to group discussion, and that individuals change their choices during group deliberations. Most explanations of group-induced shifts have focused on substantive changes in individual preferences induced by group dynamics. This study explores the possibility that individual preferences do not necessarily change in the course of group discussions. Rather, decision makers may switch their choice in part because one or more individuals manipulate the decision-making process in a manner that helps them achieve their desired outcome. The study distinguishes between rational and nonrational variations of decisional manipulation and considers examples of U.S. and Israeli foreign policy choices under crisis conditions to illustrate such processes. The implications of these ideas for the study of foreign policy decisions are discussed.

Capitalising upon Globalisation

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Webber
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
International Development ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Domestic Policy ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Gordon Brown ◽  
Development Policies ◽  
At Home

Having mapped out in the previous chapter, New Labour’s often contradictory and even ‘politically-convenient’ understanding of globalisation, chapter 3 offers analysis of three key areas of domestic policy that Gordon Brown would later transpose to the realm of international development: (i) macroeconomic policy, (ii) business, and (iii) welfare. Since, according to Brown at least, globalisation had resulted in a blurring of the previously distinct spheres of domestic and foreign policy, it made sense for those strategies and policy decisions designed for consumption at home to be transposed abroad. The focus of this chapter is the design of these three areas of domestic policy; the unmistakeable imprint of Brown in these areas and their place in building of New Labour’s political economy. Strikingly, Brown’s hand in these policies and the themes that underpinned them would again reappear in the international development policies explored in much greater detail later in the book.

Politikvermittlung an der Schnittstelle von Unterhaltung und Information : Political communication at the interface of entertainment and information

SPIEL ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-145
Author(s):  
Larissa Leonhard ◽  
Anne Bartsch ◽  
Frank M. Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Information Processing ◽  
Political Participation ◽  
Knowledge Acquisition ◽  
Political Communication ◽  
Information Seeking ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Political Information ◽  
Process Models ◽  
Dual Process ◽  
Dual Process Model

This article presents an extended dual-process model of entertainment effects on political information processing and engagement. We suggest that entertainment consumption can either be driven by hedonic, escapist motivations that are associated with a superficial mode of information processing, or by eudaimonic, truth-seeking motivations that prompt more elaborate forms of information processing. This framework offers substantial extensions to existing dual-process models of entertainment by conceptualizing the effects of entertainment on active and reflective forms of information seeking, knowledge acquisition and political participation.

Resolve, Accept, or Avoid: Effects of Group Conflict on Foreign Policy Decisions

2001 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles F. Hermann ◽  
Janice Gross Stein ◽  
Bengt Sundelius ◽  
Stephen G. Walker
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Group Conflict ◽  
Policy Decisions
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document