Cyclical Fluctuations in the Exports of the United States Since 1879

Econometrica ◽  
1969 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 546
Author(s):  
C. A. Blyth ◽  
Ilse Mintz
1971 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 885-897 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lowell E. Gallaway ◽  
Richard K. Vedder

Between the years 1860 and 1913 approximately twelve million people took passage from the United Kingdom to extra-European countries. The bulk of the migration stream (about 125,000 people per year) was directed toward the United States; it is this movement of population that is the subject of our article. The flow of individuals from the United Kingdom to the United States in this period ranged from 38,000 in 1861 to 202,000 in 1887 with marked cyclical fluctuations. For example, in 1873 the flow was 167,000 and by 1877 it was only 45,000. Variations of this magnitude pose the interesting intellectual question of whether or not they can be explained. This is not a new question; there are frequent references in the literature to the possible causes of this movement and the emigration from the United Kingdom that it implies. Studies focus on various economic influences on emigration. There is little in this period in the socio-political environment of the United Kingdom that would prompt individuals to emigrate in order to flee intolerable religious or political persecution.


Author(s):  
Iwan Morgan

This chapter argues that a postNew Deal Keynesian consensus shaped U.S. economic policy from 1945 to 1965 based on an evolving rather than static concept of Keynesianism that eventually exceeded the limits of political agreement. With enactment of the Employment Act of 1946, postwar economic policy entered a period of bipartisan consensus over the use of what could be called “compensatory Keynesianism” to limit cyclical fluctuations in the economy.This entailed running compensatory budget deficits during periods of recession (1949, 1953–54, 1957–58) and combating inflation through tight budgets during periods of prosperity.As economic growth slowed, however, new debate arose over the use of fiscal policy to maximize expansion. This became tied into the Cold War debate over how the United States could keep ahead of the Soviet Union in the post–Sputnik era; though more limited than the “compensatory” consensus, pro-growth ideas had attained political ascendancy by 1960.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document