scholarly journals Estimation of Contributions to Population Growth: A Reverse-Time Capture-Recapture Approach

Ecology ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 81 (12) ◽  
pp. 3362 ◽  
Author(s):  
James D. Nichols ◽  
James E. Hines ◽  
Jean-Dominique Lebreton ◽  
Roger Pradel
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Reverse Time ◽  
Capture Recapture

scholarly journals ESTIMATION OF CONTRIBUTIONS TO POPULATION GROWTH: A REVERSE-TIME CAPTURE–RECAPTURE APPROACH

Ecology ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 81 (12) ◽  
pp. 3362-3376 ◽  
Author(s):  
James D. Nichols ◽  
James E. Hines ◽  
Jean-Dominique Lebreton ◽  
Roger Pradel
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Reverse Time ◽  
Capture Recapture

scholarly journals On valuing patches: estimating contributions to metapopulation growth with reverse-time capture–recapture modelling

2011 ◽  
Vol 279 (1728) ◽  
pp. 480-488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamie S. Sanderlin ◽  
Peter M. Waser ◽  
James E. Hines ◽  
James D. Nichols
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Peripheral Populations ◽  
Reverse Time ◽  
Genetic Population ◽  
Local Populations ◽  
Local Survival ◽  
Capture Recapture ◽  
Local Recruitment ◽  
Analytical Approaches

Metapopulation ecology has historically been rich in theory, yet analytical approaches for inferring demographic relationships among local populations have been few. We show how reverse-time multi-state capture–recapture models can be used to estimate the importance of local recruitment and interpopulation dispersal to metapopulation growth. We use ‘contribution metrics’ to infer demographic connectedness among eight local populations of banner-tailed kangaroo rats, to assess their demographic closure, and to investigate sources of variation in these contributions. Using a 7 year dataset, we show that: (i) local populations are relatively independent demographically, and contributions to local population growth via dispersal within the system decline with distance; (ii) growth contributions via local survival and recruitment are greater for adults than juveniles, while contributions involving dispersal are greater for juveniles; (iii) central populations rely more on local recruitment and survival than peripheral populations; (iv) contributions involving dispersal are not clearly related to overall metapopulation density; and (v) estimated contributions from outside the system are unexpectedly large. Our analytical framework can classify metapopulations on a continuum between demographic independence and panmixia, detect hidden population growth contributions, and make inference about other population linkage forms, including rescue effects and source–sink structures. Finally, we discuss differences between demographic and genetic population linkage patterns for our system.

scholarly journals Breeding transients in capture–recapture modeling and their consequences for local population dynamics

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Oro ◽  
Daniel F. Doak
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Environmental Stochasticity ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Local Survival ◽  
First Reproduction ◽  
Capture Recapture

Abstract Standard procedures for capture–mark–recapture modelling (CMR) for the study of animal demography include running goodness-of-fit tests on a general starting model. A frequent reason for poor model fit is heterogeneity in local survival among individuals captured for the first time and those already captured or seen on previous occasions. This deviation is technically termed a transience effect. In specific cases, simple, uni-state CMR modeling showing transients may allow researchers to assess the role of these transients on population dynamics. Transient individuals nearly always have a lower local survival probability, which may appear for a number of reasons. In most cases, transients arise due to permanent dispersal, higher mortality, or a combination of both. In the case of higher mortality, transients may be symptomatic of a cost of first reproduction. A few studies working at large spatial scales actually show that transients more often correspond to survival costs of first reproduction rather than to permanent dispersal, bolstering the interpretation of transience as a measure of costs of reproduction, since initial detections are often associated with first breeding attempts. Regardless of their cause, the loss of transients from a local population should lower population growth rate. We review almost 1000 papers using CMR modeling and find that almost 40% of studies fitting the searching criteria (N = 115) detected transients. Nevertheless, few researchers have considered the ecological or evolutionary meaning of the transient phenomenon. Only three studies from the reviewed papers considered transients to be a cost of first reproduction. We also analyze a long-term individual monitoring dataset (1988–2012) on a long-lived bird to quantify transients, and we use a life table response experiment (LTRE) to measure the consequences of transients at a population level. As expected, population growth rate decreased when the environment became harsher while the proportion of transients increased. LTRE analysis showed that population growth can be substantially affected by changes in traits that are variable under environmental stochasticity and deterministic perturbations, such as recruitment, fecundity of experienced individuals, and transient probabilities. This occurred even though sensitivities and elasticities of these parameters were much lower than those for adult survival. The proportion of transients also increased with the strength of density-dependence. These results have implications for ecological and evolutionary studies and may stimulate other researchers to explore the ecological processes behind the occurrence of transients in capture–recapture studies. In population models, the inclusion of a specific state for transients may help to make more reliable predictions for endangered and harvested species.

scholarly journals Age-structured Jolly-Seber model expands inference and improves parameter estimation from capture-recapture data

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. e0252748
Author(s):  
Nathan J. Hostetter ◽  
Nicholas J. Lunn ◽  
Evan S. Richardson ◽  
Eric V. Regehr ◽  
Sarah J. Converse
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Lifetime Reproductive Success ◽  
Polar Bears ◽  
Population Growth Rates ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Capture Recapture ◽  
Age Structured

Understanding the influence of individual attributes on demographic processes is a key objective of wildlife population studies. Capture-recapture and age data are commonly collected to investigate hypotheses about survival, reproduction, and viability. We present a novel age-structured Jolly-Seber model that incorporates age and capture-recapture data to provide comprehensive information on population dynamics, including abundance, age-dependent survival, recruitment, age structure, and population growth rates. We applied our model to a multi-year capture-recapture study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in western Hudson Bay, Canada (2012–2018), where management and conservation require a detailed understanding of how polar bears respond to climate change and other factors. In simulation studies, the age-structured Jolly-Seber model improved precision of survival, recruitment, and annual abundance estimates relative to standard Jolly-Seber models that omit age information. Furthermore, incorporating age information improved precision of population growth rates, increased power to detect trends in abundance, and allowed direct estimation of age-dependent survival and changes in annual age structure. Our case study provided detailed evidence for senescence in polar bear survival. Median survival estimates were lower (<0.95) for individuals aged <5 years, remained high (>0.95) for individuals aged 7–22 years, and subsequently declined to near zero for individuals >30 years. We also detected cascading effects of large recruitment classes on population age structure, which created major shifts in age structure when these classes entered the population and then again when they reached prime breeding ages (10–15 years old). Overall, age-structured Jolly-Seber models provide a flexible means to investigate ecological and evolutionary processes that shape populations (e.g., via senescence, life expectancy, and lifetime reproductive success) while improving our ability to investigate population dynamics and forecast population changes from capture-recapture data.

scholarly journals Effects of liberalizing harvest regulations on Canada goose (Branta canadensis) demography in Nebraska.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy P Lyons ◽  
Larkin A Powell ◽  
Mark Vrtiska
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Regional Growth ◽  
Branta Canadensis ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Canada Goose ◽  
Canada Geese ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Early Season ◽  
Capture Recapture

Harvest regulations are used to manage populations of game species. Across their range, Canada goose Branta canadensis populations have recovered from near extirpation and are now perceived as overabundant and even a nuisance or a threat to human safety in many regions. Like many states, Nebraska has liberalized harvest regulations to increase recreation opportunities for consumptive users and to control increasing numbers of Canada geese. However, the efficacy of harvest regulations to control populations of geese is unclear. We used a live capture-recapture and dead recovery data set of more than 19,000 Canada geese banded in Nebraska 2006-2017 to determine the effect of liberalized harvest regulations on goose survival and overall growth rate. Our goals were to 1) estimate demographic parameters for Canada geese in five different regions in Nebraska 2) estimate the effect of increasing daily bag limits during the early September season and regular season on survival of hatch-year, juvenile, and adult Canada geese and 3) relate the effect of estimated changes in survival to population growth rate. We found survival (0.54-0.87), fidelity (0.14-0.99), and productivity (number of young per adult, 0.17-2.08) varied substantially among regions within Nebraska. We found increasing early season bag limits, but not regular season bag limits, reduced survival in Canada geese. However, this effect was most pronounced when comparing years without an early season to years with the highest daily bag limits used in Nebraska (eight). Survival of juvenile geese (2-3 years post-hatch) were unaffected by changes in daily bag limits during any season, though the probability of reporting was greatest for this age-class. The observed reductions in survival probability of hatch-year and adult geese due to increased daily bag limits during the early season (&lt;10%) had only weak effects on regional growth rates. Regional growth rate estimates appeared more responsive to changes in adult survival, but only decreased ~5% between years with the most liberal early-season daily bag limits to years without an early season. Our results suggest increased bag limits during the early season may reduce Canada goose survival, but has a weak impact on population growth in Nebraska.

Estimating Population Growth Rate From Capture–Recapture Data in Presence of Capture Heterogeneity

2010 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 248-258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Pradel ◽  
Rémi Choquet ◽  
Mauricio A. Lima ◽  
Joseph Merritt ◽  
Laurent Crespin
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Capture Recapture

scholarly journals Capture–recapture population growth rate as a robust tool against detection heterogeneity for population management

2011 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 2898-2907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucile Marescot ◽  
Roger Pradel ◽  
Christophe Duchamp ◽  
Sarah Cubaynes ◽  
Eric Marboutin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Population Management ◽  
Capture Recapture

Hierarchical modelling of population growth rate from individual capture-recapture data

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (7) ◽  
pp. 606-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simone Tenan ◽  
Roger Pradel ◽  
Giacomo Tavecchia ◽  
José M. Igual ◽  
Ana Sanz-Aguilar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Hierarchical Modelling ◽  
Capture Recapture

Brown hyaena population explosion: rapid population growth in a small, fenced system

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca J. Welch ◽  
Daniel M. Parker
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Natural State ◽  
Eastern Cape ◽  
The Past ◽  
Naturally Occurring ◽  
Capture Recapture ◽  
Careful Management

Context In the past 200 years, many carnivores have experienced a widespread decline in numbers and range reductions. Conservation interventions include the use of small, fenced reserves that have potential restoration benefits for conservation. Over the past 25 years, the Eastern Cape province of South Africa has seen the establishment of many small (≤440 km2) game reserves, and the reintroduction of the larger, indigenous wildlife that had been extirpated by the early 20th century, including brown hyaenas (Hyaena brunnea). These game reserves have restored the environment to a more natural state but little information exists concerning the benefits and implications of introducing elusive animals that are seldom seen after reintroduction. Fenced reserves have the potential to provide surplus animals that can be relocated for restoration purposes (where applicable) or serve as a buffer to the extinction of naturally occurring populations, but careful management is required to monitor populations appropriately, so as to avoid the costs of rapid population increase. Aims The reintroduction of brown hyaenas to the Eastern Cape has provided a case study to assess the role of small reserves and their potential to contribute to conservation, by determining the persistence and population growth of brown hyaenas in a small, enclosed reserve. Methods Estimates of brown hyaena density were calculated using a capture–recapture approach from individually identifiable images captured during a 3-month camera trapping survey. Key results After a single decade, the brown hyaena population increased by at least 367%, from six individuals to a minimum of 28 individuals. These results suggest that this brown hyaena population has the highest density ever recorded for the species in southern Africa. Conclusions and Implications Because brown hyaena populations were high relative to natural unfenced populations, high fences may provide two utilities for their conservation. Fenced reserves may provide surplus animals to support reintroductions and provide protected populations to buffer the risk of species extinction.

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