Population Trends of Black Terns from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, 1966-1996

1997 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 566 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce G. Peterjohn ◽  
John R. Sauer
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Population Trends ◽  
Breeding Bird Survey ◽  
Breeding Bird ◽  
The North ◽  
Bird Survey

scholarly journals Estimating Population Trends With a Linear Model: Technical Comments

The Condor ◽  
2004 ◽  
Vol 106 (2) ◽  
pp. 435-440 ◽  
Author(s):  
John R. Sauer ◽  
William A. Link ◽  
J. Andrew Royle
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Survey Design ◽  
Population Trends ◽  
Breeding Bird Survey ◽  
Breeding Bird ◽  
The North ◽  
Bird Survey ◽  
Substantial Bias ◽  
Modelo Lineal

Abstract Controversy has sometimes arisen over whether there is a need to accommodate the limitations of survey design in estimating population change from the count data collected in bird surveys. Analyses of surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) can be quite complex; it is natural to ask if the complexity is necessary, or whether the statisticians have run amok. Bart et al. (2003) propose a very simple analysis involving nothing more complicated than simple linear regression, and contrast their approach with model-based procedures. We review the assumptions implicit to their proposed method, and document that these assumptions are unlikely to be valid for surveys such as the BBS. One fundamental limitation of a purely design-based approach is the absence of controls for factors that influence detection of birds at survey sites. We show that failure to model observer effects in survey data leads to substantial bias in estimation of population trends from BBS data for the 20 species that Bart et al. (2003) used as the basis of their simulations. Finally, we note that the simulations presented in Bart et al. (2003) do not provide a useful evaluation of their proposed method, nor do they provide a valid comparison to the estimating- equations alternative they consider. Estimando Tendencias Poblacionales con un Modelo Lineal: Comentarios Técnicos Resumen. A veces ha surgido controversia sobre la necesidad de considerar las limitantes del diseño de muestreo al estimar cambios poblacionales a partir de datos de conteos de aves. Los análisis de muestreos como el Muestreo de Aves Reproductivas de América del Norte (North American Breeding Bird Survey [BBS]) pueden ser bastante complejos; es natural preguntarse si esta complejidad es necesaria, o si los aná lisis estadísticos son desmedidos. Bart et al. (2003) proponen un análisis muy simple que sólo involucra regresión lineal simple, y contrastan su enfoque con los procedimientos basados en modelos. Nosotros revisamos los supuestos implícitos en el método que ellos proponen y documentamos que estos supuestos no son probablemente válidos para muestreos tales como el BBS. Una limitante fundamental de un enfoque basado exclusivamente en el diseño es la ausencia de controles para factores que influencian la detección de aves en los sitios de muestreo. Mostramos que el hecho de no modelar los efectos del observador en los datos de muestreo lleva a sesgos substanciales en las estimaciones de las tendencias poblacionales de las 20 especies que Bart et al. (2003) usaron como la base de sus simulaciones a partir de datos del BBS. Finalmente, notamos que las simulaciones presentadas en Bart et al. (2003) no brindan una evaluación útil del método que proponen ni tampoco ofrecen una comparación vá lida para la alternativa de estimación de ecuaciones que ellos consideran.

scholarly journals North American Breeding Bird Survey status and trend estimates to inform a wide-range of conservation needs, using a flexible Bayesian hierarchical generalized additive model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam C. Smith ◽  
Brandon P.M. Edwards
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
North American ◽  
Breeding Bird Survey ◽  
Breeding Bird ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
The North ◽  
Smooth Component ◽  
Bird Survey ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Predictive Fit

ABSTRACTThe status and trend estimates derived from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), are critical sources of information for bird conservation. However, the estimates are partly dependent on the statistical model used. Therefore, multiple models are useful because not all of the varied uses of these estimates (e.g. inferences about long-term change, annual fluctuations, population cycles, recovery of once declining populations) are supported equally well by a single statistical model. Here we describe Bayesian hierarchical generalized additive models (GAM) for the BBS, which share information on the pattern of population change across a species’ range. We demonstrate the models and their benefits using data a selection of species; and we run a full cross-validation of the GAMs against two other models to compare predictive fit. The GAMs have better predictive fit than the standard model for all species studied here, and comparable predictive fit to an alternative first difference model. In addition, one version of the GAM described here (GAMYE) estimates a population trajectory that can be decomposed into a smooth component and the annual fluctuations around that smooth. This decomposition allows trend estimates based only on the smooth component, which are more stable between years and are therefore particularly useful for trend-based status assessments, such as those by the IUCN. It also allows for the easy customization of the model to incorporate covariates that influence the smooth component separately from those that influence annual fluctuations (e.g., climate cycles vs annual precipitation). For these reasons and more, this GAMYE model is a particularly useful model for the BBS-based status and trend estimates.LAY SUMMARYThe status and trend estimates derived from the North American Breeding Bird Survey are critical sources of information for bird conservation, but they are partly dependent on the statistical model used.We describe a model to estimate population status and trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey data, using a Bayesian hierarchical generalized additive mixed-model that allows for flexible population trajectories and shares information on population change across a species’ range.The model generates estimates that are broadly useful for a wide range of common conservation applications, such as IUCN status assessments based on trends or changes in the rates of decline for species of concern; and the estimates have better or similar predictive accuracy to other models., and

scholarly journals Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey to assess broad-scale response of the continent's most imperiled avian community, grassland birds, to weather variability

The Condor ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 118 (3) ◽  
pp. 502-512 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica M. Gorzo ◽  
Anna M. Pidgeon ◽  
Wayne E. Thogmartin ◽  
Andrew J. Allstadt ◽  
Volker C. Radeloff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Grassland Birds ◽  
Breeding Bird Survey ◽  
Weather Variability ◽  
Avian Community ◽  
Breeding Bird ◽  
The North ◽  
Scale Response ◽  
Bird Survey ◽  
Broad Scale

Expanding the North American Breeding Bird Survey Analysis to Include Additional Species and Regions

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 154-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
John R. Sauer ◽  
Daniel K. Niven ◽  
Keith L. Pardieck ◽  
David J. Ziolkowski ◽  
William A. Link
Keyword(s):  
New Species ◽  
North American ◽  
Breeding Bird Survey ◽  
Survey Area ◽  
Breeding Bird ◽  
Additional Species ◽  
The Core ◽  
The North ◽  
Bird Survey ◽  
Core Survey

Abstract The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) contains data for >700 bird species, but analyses often focus on a core group of ∼420 species. We analyzed data for 122 species of North American birds for which data exist in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) database but are not routinely analyzed on the BBS Summary and Analysis Website. Many of these species occur in the northern part of the continent, on routes that fall outside the core survey area presently analyzed in the United States and southern Canada. Other species not historically analyzed occur in the core survey area with very limited data but have large portions of their ranges in Mexico and south. A third group of species not historically analyzed included species thought to be poorly surveyed by the BBS, such as rare, coastal, or nocturnal species. For 56 species found primarily in regions north of the core survey area, we expanded the scope of the analysis, using data from 1993 to 2014 during which ≥3 survey routes had been sampled in 6 northern strata (Bird Conservation regions in Alaska, Yukon, and Newfoundland and Labrador) and fitting log-linear hierarchical models for an augmented BBS survey area that included both the new northern strata and the core survey area. We also applied this model to 168 species historically analyzed in the BBS that had data from these additional northern strata. For both groups of species we calculated survey-wide trends for the both core and augmented survey areas from 1993 to 2014; for species that did not occur in the newly defined strata, we computed trends from 1966 to 2014. We evaluated trend estimates in terms of established credibility criteria for BBS results, screening for imprecise trends, small samples, and low relative abundance. Inclusion of data from the northern strata permitted estimation of trend for 56 species not historically analyzed, but only 4 of these were reasonably monitored and an additional 13 were questionably monitored; 39 of these species were likely poorly monitored because of small numbers of samples or very imprecisely estimated trends. Only 4 of 66 “new” species found in the core survey area were reasonably monitored by the BBS; 20 were questionably monitored; and 42 were likely poorly monitored by the BBS because of inefficiency in precision, abundance, or sample size. The hierarchical analyses we present provide a means for reasonable inclusion of the additional species and strata in a common analysis with data from the core area, a critical step in the evolution of the BBS as a continent-scale survey. We recommend that results be presented both 1) from 1993 to the present using the expanded survey area, and 2) from 1966 to the present for the core survey area. Although most of the “new” species we analyzed were poorly monitored by the BBS during 1993–2014, continued expansion of the BBS will improve the quality of information in future analyses for these species and for the many other species presently monitored by the BBS.

Representativeness of land cover composition along routes of the North American Breeding Bird Survey

The Auk ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 129 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph A. Veech ◽  
Michael F. Small ◽  
John T. Baccus
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
North American ◽  
Breeding Bird Survey ◽  
Breeding Bird ◽  
The North ◽  
Bird Survey

scholarly journals The North American Breeding Bird Survey 1966–2011: Summary Analysis and Species Accounts

2013 ◽  
Vol 79 ◽  
pp. 1-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
John R. Sauer ◽  
William A. Link ◽  
Jane E. Fallon ◽  
Keith L. Pardieck ◽  
David J. Ziolkowski
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Breeding Bird Survey ◽  
Breeding Bird ◽  
The North ◽  
Bird Survey

Model selection for the North American Breeding Bird Survey

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
William A. Link ◽  
John R. Sauer ◽  
Daniel K. Niven
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
North American ◽  
Breeding Bird Survey ◽  
Breeding Bird ◽  
The North ◽  
Bird Survey ◽  
Selection For
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