The multitype continuous-time Markov branching process in a periodic environment

1980 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Klein ◽  
P. D. M. MacDonald

The multitype continuous-time Markov branching process has many biological applications where the environmental factors vary in a periodic manner. Circadian or diurnal rhythms in cell kinetics are an important example. It is shown that in the supercritical positively regular case the proportions of individuals of various types converge in probability to a non-random periodic vector, independent of the initial conditions, while the absolute numbers of individuals of various types converge in probability to that vector multiplied by a random variable whose distribution depends on the initial conditions. It is noted that the proofs are straightforward extensions of the well-known results for a constant environment.

1980 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 81-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Klein ◽  
P. D. M. MacDonald

The multitype continuous-time Markov branching process has many biological applications where the environmental factors vary in a periodic manner. Circadian or diurnal rhythms in cell kinetics are an important example. It is shown that in the supercritical positively regular case the proportions of individuals of various types converge in probability to a non-random periodic vector, independent of the initial conditions, while the absolute numbers of individuals of various types converge in probability to that vector multiplied by a random variable whose distribution depends on the initial conditions. It is noted that the proofs are straightforward extensions of the well-known results for a constant environment.


1975 ◽  
Vol 7 (03) ◽  
pp. 495-510
Author(s):  
Carla Lipow

A continuous-time Markov branching process is modified to allow some dependence of offspring generating function on population size. The model involves a given population size M, below which the offspring generating function is supercritical and above which it is subcritical. Immigration is allowed when the population size is 0. The process has a stationary measure, and an expression for its generating function is found. A limit theorem for the stationary measure as M tends to ∞ is then obtained.


2009 ◽  
Vol 46 (01) ◽  
pp. 296-307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Heinzmann

In this paper, a distributional approximation to the time to extinction in a subcritical continuous-time Markov branching process is derived. A limit theorem for this distribution is established and the error in the approximation is quantified. The accuracy of the approximation is illustrated in an epidemiological example. Since Markov branching processes serve as approximations to nonlinear epidemic processes in the initial and final stages, our results can also be used to describe the time to extinction for such processes.


1975 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 495-510 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carla Lipow

A continuous-time Markov branching process is modified to allow some dependence of offspring generating function on population size. The model involves a given population size M, below which the offspring generating function is supercritical and above which it is subcritical. Immigration is allowed when the population size is 0. The process has a stationary measure, and an expression for its generating function is found. A limit theorem for the stationary measure as M tends to ∞ is then obtained.


2009 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 296-307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Heinzmann

In this paper, a distributional approximation to the time to extinction in a subcritical continuous-time Markov branching process is derived. A limit theorem for this distribution is established and the error in the approximation is quantified. The accuracy of the approximation is illustrated in an epidemiological example. Since Markov branching processes serve as approximations to nonlinear epidemic processes in the initial and final stages, our results can also be used to describe the time to extinction for such processes.


2012 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 1134-1143
Author(s):  
Hamed Amini ◽  
Marc Lelarge

Upper deviation results are obtained for the split time of a supercritical continuous-time Markov branching process. More precisely, we establish the existence of logarithmic limits for the likelihood that the split times of the process are greater than an identified value and determine an expression for the limiting quantity. We also give an estimation for the lower deviation probability of the split times, which shows that the scaling is completely different from the upper deviations.


1973 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norman Kaplan

A population model is constructed which combines the ideas of a discrete time branching process with random environments and a continuous time non-homogeneous Markov branching process. The extinction problem is considered and necessary and sufficient conditions for extinction are determined. Also discussed are limit theorems for what corresponds to the supercritical case.


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