Stochastic compartmental models as approximations to more general stochastic systems with the general stochastic epidemic as an example

1977 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 448-461 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Faddy

A general time-dependent stochastic compartmental model is considered, where particles may move between a set of m compartments or out of the system, and new particles may be introduced into the compartments by immigration. A simple argument not relying on generating function techniques is given for the solution of such a system. It is then demonstrated that this class of compartmental models can be used as approximations to more complex stochastic systems by replacing dependence on certain stochastic variables by dependence on corresponding deterministic variables, with some recent examples being discussed. A compartmental approximation to the general stochastic epidemic is then constructed which appears on the basis of some simulations to compare favourably with the true process, particularly after the infection has got established in the population.

1977 ◽  
Vol 9 (03) ◽  
pp. 448-461 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. Faddy

A general time-dependent stochastic compartmental model is considered, where particles may move between a set of m compartments or out of the system, and new particles may be introduced into the compartments by immigration. A simple argument not relying on generating function techniques is given for the solution of such a system. It is then demonstrated that this class of compartmental models can be used as approximations to more complex stochastic systems by replacing dependence on certain stochastic variables by dependence on corresponding deterministic variables, with some recent examples being discussed. A compartmental approximation to the general stochastic epidemic is then constructed which appears on the basis of some simulations to compare favourably with the true process, particularly after the infection has got established in the population.


1993 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Ball ◽  
Philip O'neill

This paper considers a model for the spread of an epidemic in a closed, homogeneously mixing population in which new infections occur at rate βxy/(x + y), where x and y are the numbers of susceptible and infectious individuals, respectively, and β is an infection parameter. This contrasts with the standard general epidemic in which new infections occur at rate βxy. Both the deterministic and stochastic versions of the modified epidemic are analysed. The deterministic model is completely soluble. The time-dependent solution of the stochastic model is derived and the total size distribution is considered. Threshold theorems, analogous to those of Whittle (1955) and Williams (1971) for the general stochastic epidemic, are proved for the stochastic model. Comparisons are made between the modified and general epidemics. The effect of introducing variability in susceptibility into the modified epidemic is studied.


1993 ◽  
Vol 25 (01) ◽  
pp. 39-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Ball ◽  
Philip O'neill

This paper considers a model for the spread of an epidemic in a closed, homogeneously mixing population in which new infections occur at rate βxy/(x + y), where x and y are the numbers of susceptible and infectious individuals, respectively, and β is an infection parameter. This contrasts with the standard general epidemic in which new infections occur at rate βxy. Both the deterministic and stochastic versions of the modified epidemic are analysed. The deterministic model is completely soluble. The time-dependent solution of the stochastic model is derived and the total size distribution is considered. Threshold theorems, analogous to those of Whittle (1955) and Williams (1971) for the general stochastic epidemic, are proved for the stochastic model. Comparisons are made between the modified and general epidemics. The effect of introducing variability in susceptibility into the modified epidemic is studied.


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