Free Market Price Projections Based on a Formal Econometric Model

1961 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 365
Author(s):  
W. A. Cromarty
Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3325
Author(s):  
Vanderson Aparecido Delapedra-Silva ◽  
Paula Ferreira ◽  
Jorge Cunha ◽  
Herbert Kimura

The electricity market in Brazil is basically organized under two parts: the regulated market, where energy is traded through auctions, and the free market, where market participants freely negotiate the price and quantity of electricity. Although revenues obtained in the regulated market tend to be lower than in the free market, the auctions’ results show that investors still value the lesser degree of uncertainty associated with the regulated market. However, a growing interest in the free market by investors is recognized since the price of electricity tends to be higher. Therefore, this study investigates four free market price scenarios to assess the expected return for investors, using the traditional discounted cash flow approach complemented with Monte Carlo simulation to address market uncertainty. The study breaks new ground by capturing the weekly price fluctuations and including the price elasticity of demand of the free market. The results seem to indicate that the disclosure of the ceiling and floor price limits for the spot price can signal important information about the agents’ price expectation in the free market and can be used for investment project evaluation.


1970 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-169
Author(s):  
Eliahu Hirschberg

Gold value clauses are rarely used in England. In the United States, before the Joint Resolution of both Houses of Congress of January 5, 1933, which abrogated gold clauses in the U.S. retrospectively and prospectively, declaring them to be against public policy, gold coin clauses were a common occurrence. In the past on the European continent much use has been made of gold value clauses.In England gold value clauses may assume greater importance in the future. Lately, the two-tier system of gold prices has been introduced, one between Central Banks and another at the free market price. In an individual gold value clause, the question of which price is recognized by the parties, who probably did not in fact foresee the possibility of the creation of a two-tier system, is one of construction. Even today, a party to a gold value clause which refers to the free market price may gain a profit, if there is an appreciation of the price of gold on the free market above the U.S. government minimum level of $35.00 per ounce.


2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 116-125 ◽  

The tragedy of the commons is responsible for many, if not all, of the environmental problems concerning natural resource preservation that we face in modern society. The tragedy of the commons describes a situation in which resources held “in common”, namely, public resources, are depleted or mistreated by collective action. Basically it means lack of private ownership and almost inevitably leads to a misallocation of resources. And yet, the predominating kinds of solutions proposed to solve these problems involve increased government regulation—effectively expanding the scope of the very tragedy of the commons which lies at the heart of the problem in the first place. The present paper advocates an alternative: free market environmentalism. It is not a contradiction in terms, despite how that phrase sounds to the modern ear. In this paper we attempt to demonstrate that laissez-faire capitalism is our last best hope for protecting the environment. Free market environmentalism centers around private property rights and thus a decentralization of environmental decision-making. Effective choices made about scarce resources must be based upon free market price signals and incentives. The lack of laissez-faire capitalism applied to earth’s natural resources distorts both of these indicators—causing poorly made and oftentimes destructive decisions. A free market solution to the environment creates the most value for society, allows for open and continuous entrepreneurial innovation, and economically empowers those who are the most environmentally vulnerable.


2019 ◽  
pp. 177-195
Author(s):  
Julia Elyachar

This chapter upends usual discussions of neoliberal governmentality by focusing on the relation of neoliberalism to the irrational. The central task of neoliberalism in its early days was to resurrect a discredited liberalism. WW I and the problematic Versailles Peace of 1919 convinced many that irrationality lay at the core of the “civilized” European world. Those who became neo-liberal (before the hyphen was eliminated) embraced that which was irrational while resolutely attacking all kinds of collectivism. Early neoliberals such as Mises equated socialists with savages and put socialists in what Trouillot called “The Savage Slot,” thanks to their wilful overthrow of the free market price system, without which rationality itself could not exist. Hayek and the next generation of neoliberals shifted the source of irrationality into the physiology of individual humans. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union against which early neoliberal polemics were aimed, tacit knowledge moved out of the body to the corporation via Jean Lave’s concept of communities of practice. The chapter draws on classic works in anthropology; history of economic thought; US corporate history; and obscure annals of the public sector in Egypt to make these arguments.


2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keejae Hong ◽  
Cabrini H. Pak ◽  
Simon J. Pak

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine the degree of trade mispricing in the US fresh banana trade with Latin American and Caribbean countries using a new alternative measure in estimating arm’s length price. Design/methodology/approach – A key feature of the research design is that we use the actual free market price of commodity (e.g. fresh banana price) as a benchmark for arm’s length price rather than relying on interquartile range, which is known to be problematic. Findings – The paper finds that when the degree of mispricing is measured by two widely used methods, interquartile price filter and partner-country methods, we find little evidence of undervaluation or overvaluation of US banana import. However, when we use the free-market price of fresh banana as a benchmark for arm’s length price, first adopted in this study, the average undervalued amount of trade compared to the total banana import declared value by the US importers is on average 54 per cent during the period between 2000 and 2009. Originality/value – This study suggests a new simple measure in estimating arm’s length traction price in studying trade mispricing.


1985 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth W. Bailey ◽  
Abner W. Womack

AbstractAn econometric model of planted wheat acreage was estimated for five distinct production regions in the United States. This structural investigation represents an update of previous published work with specific attention given to policy program variables, weather, production cost, risk, market price influences, and program participation. Estimated results indicated regional divergence in responsiveness to government program variables. The most significant divergence occurred in the Cornbelt and Southeast—soft red winter wheat areas. Results indicate that management of the wheat program from the USDA level will contain countervailing production incentives unless these regional characteristics are taken into consideration in policy directives.


2001 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. K. Wang

I present a model of stock market price fluctuations incorporating effects of share supply as a history-dependent function of previous purchases and share demand as a function of price deviation from moving averages. Price charts generated show intervals of oscillations switching amplitude and frequency suddenly in time, forming price and trading volume patterns well-known in market technical analysis. Ultimate price trends agree with traditional predictions for specific patterns. The consideration of dynamically evolving supply and demand in this model resolves the apparent contradiction with the Efficient Market Hypothesis: perceptions of imprecise equity values by a world of investors evolve over non-negligible periods of time, with dependence on price history.


1965 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 631-637
Author(s):  
Gordon C. Winston

rofessor Nurkse presented a compelling case against the price stabilization policies of national marketing boards for primary products based on the fact that these policies may reduce the quantity of foreign revenue accruing to the primary producing country [1], If they do, they may act to restrict the rate of economic development. To maximize export earnings, he proposed elimination of the marketing boards' function of insulating domestic producers of primary products from demand fluctuations on the world market. These demand fluctua¬tions were considered to be the result of cyclical fluctuations within the advanced countries, hence they were treated in a short-run context. To see Professor Nurkse's argument, consider a marketing board which has as its objective the stabilization of the price of a primary product, X, to the domestic producers of X in country A by use of a buffer fund1. This will be accomplished by the board, as a domestic monopsonist, if it fixes a price for its purchases of the product, then sells on the world market for whatever it can get in light of world demand conditions. Assuming that stabilization of price is its sole objective, it will select a domestic price which represents the anticipated weighted average of the world market price over some time period so that the board itself will, hopefully, show neither a profit nor a loss at the end of the period from these tax and subsidy operations. While the short run free market supply function, Sf (which we assume to be linear, of positive price elasticity, stable, and responsive without lags), still exists, the stabilization of domestic price at p in Figure 1 will yield a supply function to the world market, Sm, which is perfectly inelastic at the quantity, Q.


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