scholarly journals Macroeconomic policy under the conditions of oil shocks

2004 ◽  
Vol 47 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 167-190
Author(s):  
Marko Klasnja

This paper represents a non-technical and eclectic attempt at synthesizing and presenting fundamental features, challenges and conclusions of the niche of economic theory focusing on the relationship between macroeconomic policy and oil shocks. Results of more than five-decade long research and vivid practice can be summarized in the following: Relationship between an oil price shock and economic performance, most notably inflationary record, has weakened over time. This is predominantly due to the fact that macroeconomic management has become less "accommodative" of the oil price, i.e. monetary and fiscal authorities have stopped using policy instruments as a direct response the shock; Polygon for exercising macroeconomic policy during and after the oil price hikes has been consciously and considerably narrowed since the practice has shown that macroeconomic stimuli are not an adequate replacement for real adjustment; Redefining of institutional ambient, reshaping of the global monetary order, implementation of programs for energy-conservation and alternative fuels utilization, as well as a decrease in dependence on imported oil on the part of developed countries, have together resulted in oil shocks being less penetrative in the open economy; Structural changes in the world oil market, most notably diminishing strength of OPEC and the introduction of sophisticated trade instruments, have contributed to risk diversification, whereby oil price instability has been somewhat reduced.

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (5) ◽  
pp. 3-39
Author(s):  
Yurii KINDZERSKYI ◽  

Contradictory approaches to the formation of the foundations and policies of inclusive industrialization are revealed. The interdependence of inclusive development and industrialization is shown, in particular, due to the existence of the intrinsic property of industrialization to be inclusively oriented under the conditions that create the effect of “circular cumulative causation” of its deployment through structural policy instruments. Emphasis is placed on the absence of such conditions in Ukraine due to incongruent actions of the state in the economy. The significant limitations of the theory of inclusive/extractive institutions for effective industrialization are pointed out, connected with the too long for the later period of formation of inclusive institutions and their neoliberal content, a priori unsuitable for industrialization. Given the social order of limited access in Ukraine, the existing policy of straightforward borrowing of institutions from developed countries is noted, which led to increased socio-economic instability and the spread of rent-oriented organizations instead of production. Industrialization is considered as a process of structural changes that should occur with a complementary combination of structural and fundamental factors of development. Through the prism of these factors, models and experiences of industrialization and deindustrialization in the world are considered. It is shown that domestic premature deindustrialization is due to ignoring the need for such factors in economic policy, their unjustified replacement by measures of deregulation and liberalization, emphasis on the use of current competitive advantages—cheap labor and natural resources – instead of building promising, technology-based and innovative advantages. The latent “failures” of scientific-technological development from the standpoint of inclusive industrialization are critically highlighted, in particular, attention is drawn to the problems of deepening social injustice and inequality, impossibility for weak countries to form policies in their national interests market power and the growing political influence of corporations. As a result, a number of conclusions are drawn on the formation of a policy of inclusive industrialization in Ukraine.


2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-116
Author(s):  
Ivan Telega

The use of natural resources is an important factor for environmental degradation and biodiversity loss. This problem is reflected in EU strategic documents, including Europe 2020 strategy, where one of the main initiatives is ”resource efficient Europe”. Materials Flow Accounts (MFA) are currently being developed, allowing to estimate the aggregate measures of demand and consumption of materials by each country. The aim of the study is to determine the influence of selected factors on the amount of resources consumed in selected European countries using panel regression models. Due to the availability of data, the study is limited to 2000–2015 period and European countries. According to the results obtained, the combined share of the construction, industrial and agriculture sectors, GDP PPS and final energy consumption per capita increase the demand on materials. The impact of environmental policy instruments in the form of taxes and fees has not been confirmed. In developed countries GDP growth is possible with a relatively smaller increase in material demand. This may be due to structural changes in the economies of developed countries, technological change, the implementation of recycling, and the use of incentives, such as environmental taxes. Undoubtedly, further studies of factors determining the volume of material demand are needed.


Author(s):  
Sunday Oladunni

The global oil dynamics has significant implications for both oil exporting and importing small open economies. However, much of the literature on oil shocks is oriented towards advanced oil-importing economies. Micro-founded studies that explore the effects of oil shocks from the standpoint of oil-endowed emerging economies are rather sparse, compared to the preponderance of studies on developed oil importers and exporters. Thus, resulting to a consequential knowledge gap on oil price transmission mechanism and a limited appreciation of the growing policy dilemmas in these economies. The paper, therefore, sets up a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to study how an oil price shock impacts on macroeconomic aggregates in an oil-rich emerging economy. We consider a positive oil price shock to uncover the extent to which oil price increase is positive for the economy. The typical small open economy model is enriched with an export-oriented oil firm, a multi-sector foreign production and a non-oil domestic firm. The model is closed with exchange rate-augmented interest rate rule, and it is calibrated for Nigeria, an important oil producer. Macroeconomic responses, sequel to a simulated positive oil price shock, reveal evidence of Dutch disease and the operation of the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect. We find a compelling need for oil-endowed emerging economies to address these phenomena by ensuring a robust non-oil sector with limited exposure to the vagaries of oil price oscillation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 6812
Author(s):  
Ane-Mari Androniceanu ◽  
Irina Georgescu ◽  
Manuela Tvaronavičienė ◽  
Armenia Androniceanu

The current phenomenon of the economy-accelerated digitalization, known as the “Industry 4.0”, will generate both an increased productivity, connectivity and several transformations on the labor force skills. Our research objectives are to determine the influence that digitalization has had on the workforce in several developed countries and to propose a new composite indicator that reflects these dynamics over time. We have used the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) in order to identify and analyze the correlations between two sets of variables, an independent one and a dependent one. Data were collected from the World Bank and World Economic Forum for the years 2018–2019. Based on the results of our research we have determined and made a consistent analysis of the new composite index of digitalization and labor force in 19 countries. The results of our research are relevant and show not only the impact of digitalization on the labor force in different countries, but also the structural changes required by the new economic and social models. Our research can help decision-makers get in advance the necessary measures in the field of labor force in order to ensure a proper integration of these measures into the new economic model based on digitalization.


Author(s):  
Oleg S. Sukharev ◽  
◽  
Ekaterina N. Voronchikhina ◽  

An issue of the economic growth launching in Russia and carrying out technological renewal of the economy seems to be the central task at the current stage of the country’s economic development. However, the overwhelming majority of theories of economic growth, as well as the classical theory of economic policy, do not give an exact answer as to the technological renewal in the economy and its role when changing the structure of technologies and investments in them. The present study fills that apparent gap, and on the basis of the theory of technological paradigms created by the Russian school of economic thought. The purpose of the study is to structurally analyze the dynamics of investments in fixed assets in the technological structures of the Russian economy with an assessment of the impact on it of certain instruments of macroeconomic policy. On the basis of taxonomic methods of identifying paradigms by types of economic activity, the authors propose a solution to the problem of measuring structures and the investments made in them. The stages in the methodology for the struc- tural analysis and assessment of the economic policy instruments impact- ing through the regression econometric analysis on the target investment function of each of the identified paradigms are formed. The study resulted in obtaining a picture of the distribution of the impact of macroeconomic policy instruments separately for each technological paradigm, according to the selection made. That allows, firstly, to understand the dispersed power of the influence of the economic policy being implemented, and secondly, to see the possibilities of correcting the ongoing structural and investment policy and the use of macroeconomic instruments, as well as institutional changes – individual for each element of the structure – technological paradigm. The prospect of the study is the development of various models based on the selected structure of technological paradigms and investments in them, linking the development of structures and detailing the impact of each of the economic policy instruments.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Dias ◽  
◽  
Hortense Santos ◽  
Paula Heliodoro ◽  
Cristina Vasco ◽  
...  

The 2020 Russia-Saudi Oil Price War was an economic war triggered in March 2020 by Saudi Arabia in response to Russia’s refusal to reduce oil production to keep oil prices at a moderate level. In view of these events, this study aims to analyze oil shocks (WTI) in the eastern European stock markets, namely the stock indices of Hungary (BUX), Croatia (CROBE), Russia (MOEX), Czech Republic (PRAGUE), Slovakia (SAX 16), Slovenia (SBI TOP), Bulgaria (SOFIX), from September 2019 to January 2021. The results show mostly structural breakdowns in March 2020, while the VAR Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests model shows two-way shocks between oil (WTI) and the stock markets analyzed. These findings show that the hypothesis of portfolio diversification may be called into question. As a final discussion, we consider that investors should avoid investments in stock markets, at least as long as this pandemic last, and rebalance their portfolios into assets considered “safe haven” for the purpose of mitigating risk and improving the efficiency of their portfolios.


1969 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 14-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lloyd G. Reynolds

The less developed countries (LDC) present two kinds of challenge to economists. First, they invite us to develop hypotheses about how economic growth begins and about structural changes during the early decades of growth. Second, they provide a fresh terrain on which specialists in particular subject-matter areas can test accepted notions about economic behaviour. For investigations in labour economics, the structure of earnings provides a convenient starting point. (It is best to say "earnings" rather than "wages" because most workers in the LDC's are self-emplqyed.) Analysis of earnings requires an examination of manpower supplies and requirements. This leads into the economics of agriculture, industry, government, and other labour demanding sectors on one side, and into a study of education and other skill-producing agencies, on the other. Thus by starting with the earnings structure, one is led rather directly into the heart of the economy.


Author(s):  
Natalia Gakhovich ◽  
◽  
Oksana Kushnirenko ◽  
Liliia Venger ◽  
◽  
...  

In the paper, we investigate the main causes and consequences of de-industrialization manufacturing and identify important factors influencing the structural transformation of the industrial sector through the prism of global technological challenges. Important challenges identified include environmental challenges of the threatening impact of climate change, digitalization in all spheres of public life, the technological leadership of developed countries in context field of Industry 4.0, changes in the geopolitical landscape and trade conflicts between countries; migration and population aging; changes in competencies and retraining of employees to acquire digital skills; cybersecurity and volatility threats; quarantine amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The current structural imbalances of Ukrainian industrial development are considered and the current state and dynamics of structural changes in the Ukrainian economy in technological, reproduction, sectoral and foreign economic dimensions are analyzed. Crisis trends in the Ukrainian industry developed long before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic: comparing the structure of Ukrainian industry by type of economic activity, a decrease in the share of the manufacturing industry, a loss of production potential for a number of high-tech industries (automotive industry, instrument making, shipbuilding) and a decrease in added value in manufacturing industry with Ukraine's establishment as an independent state in which profound political, social and economic reforms have begun to take place. The analysis made it possible to determine further opportunities for industrial development, taking into account harmonization with European trends in digital and green transformations in industry. Based on the research results, complex directions for solving structural imbalances in industry at interrelated levels are proposed: state, regional and local levels. Overcoming the consequences of Ukrainian manufacturing deindustrialization in the context of European integration is dependent on developing and implementing relevant policy of manufacturing modernization and principles of the "circular economy"; integration into strategic value chains; creating conditions for training personnel with digital competencies; development of an innovative infrastructure – scientific, industrial, technological parks, innovation clusters and business-incubators. This will lead to the development and introduction of domestic innovation in production, which in turn should inspire further progress in the innovation structural transformation in Ukrainian economy and help to enhance national competitiveness and achieve sustained economic growth.


2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (3(72)) ◽  
pp. 159-170
Author(s):  
V.N. FOMISHYNA ◽  
S. V. FOMISHYN ◽  
O.K. LADUSHYNA

Topicality. Subjective educational, professional, moral and psychological properties of a person which were important at all times, nowadays receive special significance in the context of the formation of a global knowledge economy,. It now becomes an axiom that a person, his knowledge and skills, his ability to creativity is the main productive resource and the main value of society. Valuable measure gets an economic importance in the sense that, in the case of its deformation, all society's efforts, expenditures of government and intergovernmental institutions, households and other actors in sufficient (or high) cost of human capital achievement will fail in forming the main value and the main productive resource of society. Aim and tasks. The purpose of the article is to study the functional role, international features of the formation of human capital and their manifestations in the national economy. Research results. The most developed countries are those which have a high level of human capital development. The functional role of human capital in world development is realized through qualitative improvement of the human potential of the country, the formation of the abilities and needs of its population, plus the characteristics of the contribution of these non-market investments to economic growth, efficiency and competitiveness. Human capital, like all kinds of capital, is not objectively predetermined, it is the result of the joint efforts of the man himself, his family, enterprise, and state. For a person, these efforts are associated with labor costs, time and financial resources, for enterprises and the state - mainly with the financial costs associated with economic and social development. The financial cost of a qualitative improvement of the workforce, which means its transformation into human capital, takes the form of investment � all kinds of investments into a person, that can be valued in cash or another form and are purposeful, that contribute to the growth of labor productivity and increase income level. Investments in human capital in comparison with investments in other types of capital are distinguished by a number of peculiarities that influence the decision making of the subject in relation to the choice between current consumption or savings for the purpose of further investment and accumulation of human capital. Each of the subjects, investing in individual human capital, pursues its own goals and sees in his own way the future benefits of its accumulation. The dynamics, structure and volume of these investments shows that they differ significantly in the industrialized countries and in Ukraine. The volumes of investments into different components of human capital in Ukraine are lower than in Western countries, the USA, and Japan. As a result, in the last decades there has been a deformed structure of investment in a person, which complicates its quantitative and qualitative reproduction. Conclusion. International tendencies of human capital development are manifested in the following: the formation of a human-centric concept and the humanization of world development; growth of the role of financial markets in investing in human capital; a large proportion of human capital in the national wealth of highly developed countries; high and stable expenditures on human capital development at all levels of the economy; rapid response of the educational sphere to structural changes in the economy; the transformation of knowledge into the most extensive sphere of investment. In the system of reproduction of human capital in modern Ukraine has accumulated a number of acute problems of socio-economic and moral-ideological nature, which, due to the unfavourable development of events, could lead not only to the progress of the economic system, but also to its destruction.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document