scholarly journals Fiscal deficit and trade deficit nexus in Pakistan: An econometric inquiry

2020 ◽  
pp. 18-18
Author(s):  
Shujaat Abbas ◽  
Abdul Waheed
Keyword(s):  
Correction Term ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Time Series Estimation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study is an attempt to explore the short-term and long-term effects of the fiscal deficit along with other macroeconomic variables on the deteriorating trade deficit of Pakistan from 1980 to 2018 by using time series estimation techniques. The result of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and error correction term revealed the existence of cointegration among variables of interest. The estimated long-run and short-run results of the ARDL approach showed a significant positive effect of fiscal deficit on Pakistan's trade deficit in the short-run, whereas a significant adverse effect is observed in the long-run. The findings validated the twin deficit hypothesis in the short-run, whereas twin divergence proposition is observed in the long run. The study suggests prudent fiscal and monetary policies to make macroeconomic conditions favorable for the development and competitiveness of domestic production sectors engaged in the international trade.

scholarly journals Fiscal Deficit and Inflation: New Evidences from Turkey Using a Bounds Testing Approach

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serap Bedir ◽  
Arzu Tural Dikmen
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
External Borrowing

A well-established theory in macroeconomics is that governments running persistent deficits have sooner or later to finance those deficits with money creation, thus producing inflation. The fiscal view of inflation has been especially prominent in the developing country literature, which has long recognized that less efficient tax collection, political instability, and more limited access to external borrowing tend to lower the relative cost of seigniorage and increase dependence on the inflation tax. For this reason, the main factors which affecting inflation rate in developing countries are extremely important for policy makers as when the causes of inflation are correctly specified the appropriate policy change can be easily diagnosed and effectively implemented. The purpose of this study is to test the empirical relationship between inflation and the budget deficit for the Turkish economy by an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) analysis for the period 1970–2010. The data is taken from Republic of Turkey Ministry of Development and World Bank’s Database. The empirical findings indicates that fiscal deficit is one of the important variables of the price level along with other variables like interest rates, exchange rate, per capita income, trade of GDP. The short-run analysis captured from error correction model (ECM). The results of the bounds test suggest that there is a long run relationship between fiscal deficit and inflation. These findings drive important inferences for implications of monetary and fiscal policies.

scholarly journals Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: A Re-examination of FDI and Growth in Vietnam

2013 ◽  
Vol 218 ◽  
pp. 94-113
Author(s):  
ANH PHẠM THẾ ◽  
ĐÀO NGUYỄN THỊ HỒNG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

This study examines the econometric and empirical evidence of both causal and long-run relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in Vietnam, covering a time span of 21 years from 1991 to 2012. The recent and robust methodology of bounds testing or autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) approach to Cointegration is employed for the empirical analysis. This technique can capture both short-run and long-run dynamics of variables, particularly in small sample size cases. The findings indicate the existence of a Cointegration relationship between the two time series and a modest adjustment process from short-run to long-run equilibrium. Further results from Granger causality tests conducted within the error correction model confirm a bi-directional causality between economic growth and FDI over the study period.

scholarly journals FDI location and exchange rates. is there really a relationship between the two?

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 642-651
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Coming Out ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
Exact Nature ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The exchange rate led foreign direct investment (FDI), FDI led exchange rates and feedback effect hypotheses summarise the literature around the nature of the relationship between FDI and exchange rates. So many authors on this subject over a long period have been found to generally side with of the above-mentioned hypothesis or another without a consensus. Despite this lack of consensus with regard to the exact nature of the causal relation between these two variables, what is coming out clearly from the literature is that there indeed exist a relationship between FDI and exchange rates. The lack of consensus has prompted this current study that used the ARDL (Autoregressive distributed lag)-bounds testing approach. The study revealed the existence of causality from (1) the rand value to FDI in the long run and (2) FDI to the rand value only in the short run in South Africa. The author recommends that policies which strengthen the value of the rand should be put in place in order to attract FDI in the long run. The flow of FDI into South Africa will in turn not only stabilises the value of the rand.

scholarly journals The Causal Connection between CO2 Emissions and Agricultural Productivity in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Testing Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 1692 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Rehman ◽  
Ilhan Ozturk ◽  
Deyuan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Food Grains ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Total Food ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Seed Distribution

The rapid agricultural development and mechanization of agronomic diligence has led to a significant growth in energy consumption and CO2 emission. Agriculture has a dominant contribution to boosting the economy of any country. In this paper, we demonstrate carbon dioxide emissions’ association with cropped area, energy use, fertilizer offtake, gross domestic product per capita, improved seed distribution, total food grains and water availability in Pakistan for the period of 1987-2017. We employed Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests to examine the variables’ stationarity. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing technique to cointegration was applied to demonstrate the causality linkage among study variables from the evidence of long-run and short-run analyses. The long-run evidence reveals that cropped area, energy usage, fertilizer offtake, gross domestic product per capita and water availability have a positive and significant association with carbon dioxide emissions, while the analysis results of improved seed distribution and total food grains have a negative association with carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan. Overall, the long-run effects are stronger than the short-run dynamics, in terms of the impact of explanatory variables on carbon dioxide emission, thus making the findings heterogeneous. Possible initiatives should be taken by the government of Pakistan to improve the agriculture sector and also introduce new policies to reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

scholarly journals Determinants of Agricultural Productivity: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan’s Economy

2016 ◽  
Vol I (I) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Mehmood Kakar ◽  
Adiqa Kiani ◽  
Asia Baig
Keyword(s):  
Correction Term ◽  
Agricultural Productivity ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Productivity Convergence ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Total Productivity ◽  
Positive Effect

This article examines the determinants of the total productivity of the agriculture sector which enhances the total agricultural productivity in Pakistan and analyzes the relations among variables used for the analysis from 1990 - 2017. The application of the auto regressive distributed lag technique ARDL was used to approximate various determinants. The area under cultivation, fertilizer consumption, agriculture credit, and rainfall show a positive effect on agriculture productivity, whereas agriculture employment and pesticide consumption show a positive but statistically insignificant effect on agricultural productivity in the long run. While in the short-run all determinants have a positive and significant effect on total agriculture productivity convergence towards equilibrium is shown by error correction term is 0.829.

scholarly journals Crop Production, Livestock Production and Economic Growth in Botswana (1990-2017): An Application of ARDL Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 1500-1508
Author(s):  
Mufaro Andrew Matandare ◽  
Patricia Masego Makepe ◽  
Lekgatlhamang Setlhare ◽  
Jonah Bajaki Tlhalefang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Livestock Production ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Testing Approach

There are few studies in Botswana which have examined the relationship between agriculture and economic growth. The uniqueness of this study is grounded in investigating disintegrated agriculture components into crop production and livestock production and investigating their nexus with economic growth. This study estimated the short and long term effects between crop production, livestock production and economic growth in Botswana for the period 1990 to 2017. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) bounds testing approach was employed to investigate the stated relationship. Study findings from the ARDL bound testing approach confirm evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between crop production, livestock production and economic growth. Results indicated that livestock production has a positive and significant impact on economic growth both in the short run and long run. On the other hand crop production has a positive and significant impact on economic growth only in the long run. Efforts towards supporting agricultural sector growth should be emphasized to promote agricultural sector productivity in a bid to forge a move away from dependence on imports of food in Botswana. To enhance economic growth, in both the short run and long run, the government of Botswana and all relevant stakeholders should invest in and promote livestock production. In the long term, policies that foster crop production are essential for economic growth.

Electricity Consumption–Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from ARDL Bound Testing Approach in the Tunisian Context

2020 ◽  
pp. 097215092092543 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zouheir Mighri ◽  
Hanen Ragoubi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
Causal Nexus

This article investigates the causal nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth in Tunisia for the period 1971–2013 by using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration and Granger causality tests. The empirical findings indicate the existence of a long-term relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. Besides, they support the conservation hypothesis in the long run, while they confirm the growth hypothesis in the short run.

Does Nominal Devaluation Improve Income Distribution? Evidence from Bangladesh

2012 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-77
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahbaz ◽  
Mohammad Mafizur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Income Inequality ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Impact

The article aims to investigate the impact of nominal devaluation on income distribution in Bangladesh both in short and long runs. In doing so, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing has been employed for cointegration, and Error Correction Model (ECM) has been used for short-run dynamics. The empirical psychology has confirmed the existence of long-run relationship between the variables. Furthermore our estimated results reveal that nominal devaluation tends to decrease income inequality. Though economic growth appears to improve income distribution, non-linear link between both the variables, however, depicts Kuznets’ inverted-U curve (1955). Financial development causes further deterioration in income distribution. Trade openness contributes to income inequality as discussed in Leontief Paradox.

scholarly journals Modelling the Temporal Effect of Terrorism on Tourism in Kenya

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian K. Masinde ◽  
Steven Buigut ◽  
Joseph K. Mung'atu
Keyword(s):  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

<p>Terrorist attacks have escalated over the recent years in Kenya, with adverse effects on the tourism industry. This study aims to establish if a long-run equilibrium exists between terrorism and tourism in Kenya between the years 1994 and 2014. To reinforce the robustness of the results, both Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) techniques are used to investigate the problem. A Granger causality test is also carried out to ascertain the direction of the relationship if one exists. The evidence from ARDL and the VECM testing procedure suggest that there is no long-run equilibrium between terrorism and tourism in Kenya. Terrorism does not Granger cause tourism and vice versa. However, short-run effect indicates that terrorism negatively and significantly affects tourism.</p>

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