scholarly journals Synchronization of business cycles in the selected European countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 60 (6) ◽  
pp. 759-773 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sasa Obradovic ◽  
Vladimir Mihajlovic
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Rank Correlation ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Trade Volume ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Optimum Currency

The synchronization of business cycles represents one of the conditions that countries have to fulfil to become part of an optimum currency area, as well as a condition for the efficient implementation of a common economic policy in these countries. This paper examines the extent to which Serbia and its neighbouring countries fulfil these conditions, taking the euro area as an optimum currency area. By applying the Hodrick-Prescott and the band-pass filters, as well as the Pearson correlation coefficient and the Spearman rank correlation coefficient, this paper examines the synchronization of business cycles in these countries. Taking Serbia as an example, the influence of the foreign trade volume between two countries on the similarity of their business cycles is tested. The results show a lower harmonization of business cycles in Serbia with those in the euro area, when compared with the selected neighbouring countries, and do not confirm the thesis on the influence of the foreign trade volume on the harmonization of business cycles.

Bilateral Trade and Intra-Regional Business Cycles: Is East Asia Feasible for a Currency Area?

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 1850113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Feng L. Lee
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Currency Union ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Optimum Currency ◽  
International Openness

This paper investigates the synchronization of the intra-East Asian business cycles based on regional bilateral trade statistics. By evaluating three macroeconomic fundamentals: real GDP, industrial production, and unemployment, it is found that tighter intra-East Asian trade may most likely lead to more idiosyncratic business cycles and hence lower correlations of economic activity. When using regional trade as an international openness criterion in the theory of Optimum Currency Area, the finding suggests that for the immediate future, the creation of an East Asian monetary/currency union may not be feasible.

Optimum Currency Area Theory and Business Cycle Convergence in EMU

2016 ◽  
pp. 67-91
Author(s):  
Emin Ertürk ◽  
Derya Yılmaz ◽  
Işın Çetin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Times ◽  
Optimum Currency ◽  
Over Time

Which countries should be in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)? This question has been debated frequently in the aftermath of the Sovereign Debt Crisis. But this has been asked in every stages of European integration. This discussion has rooted in the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) theory. The theory simply reveals that; if the countries have similar business cycles, one size fits all monetary policy would able to address the problems of member countries. Otherwise, no single monetary policy could be able to satisfy all members. In this respect, we test the business cycle convergence in EMU12 countries over time and we have also analyzed the effects of crisis on this convergence. We have found that business cycles converged over time in these countries. This convergence rises in the times of crisis as they slump together after the shock, but falls sharply in the aftermath of the crisis. This reflects the divergent recovery paths of the countries and put a pressure on single monetary policy especially after crisis.

scholarly journals Monetary Union Accession and the Severity of Potential Asymmetric Shocks - the Case of Lithuania and Poland

Ekonomika ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radosław Kurach ◽  
Jerzy Stelmach
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Currency Union ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Seminal Paper ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Asymmetric Shocks ◽  
Optimum Currency ◽  
Benefits And Costs

Monetary union accession generates benefits and costs for the entering countries. According to the seminal paper by Mundell (1961), the possible costs are usually associated with the asymmetric shocks that might take place. Under the currency union regime, these asymmetric shocks can be no longer neutralized by the countryspecific monetary policy tools, hence the flexibility of the economy is desirable.In this article, we employ the measure of business cycles correlation proposed by Artis and Zhang (1995) as well as labor market statistics to examine how easy the economies of Lithuania and Poland can adjust to asymmetric shocks in comparison to some other EU countries. Discussing the empirical results, we propose recommendations for economic policy that might help to fulfil the conditions of the Optimum Currency Area.

scholarly journals Empirical Results for Some Monetary Areas According to Optimum Currency Area Criteria

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (3) ◽  
pp. 877-885
Author(s):  
Emil Adámek ◽  
Stanislav Kappel
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Union ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Common Currency ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Time Average ◽  
Oca Criteria ◽  
Optimum Currency

The euro area is the biggest monetary union in the World. In post-crisis time, the possibilities of creation a new monetary union are discussed again. The aim of this article is to evaluate, according to OCA criteria, an appropriateness of selected countries for a membership in a monetary union or for creation new monetary union. The second aim is to confront the existing monetary union – the euro area, with two potential monetary areas – NAFTA and MERCOSUR. The criteria are based on the OCA theory and partly on the so called OCA index. According to the results, there are countries (so called core countries) such as Austria or Luxemburg which reach satisfactory values. On the other hand there are countries such as Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Greece or Italy which reach worse values. Quite surprisingly, the values of most indicators (except for DISSIM) have worsened since the crisis in the euro area. It seems to be convenient for both Canada and Mexico to adopt a common currency with the USA. In case of MERCOSUR we could barely find a pair of countries with better values compare with euro area’s all-time average.

IS APEC SUITABLE FOR CURRENCY UNION?

2006 ◽  
Vol 51 (03) ◽  
pp. 325-334 ◽  
Author(s):  
YUTAKA KURIHARA
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Currency Union ◽  
Economic Cooperation ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Trade Intensity ◽  
Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Optimum Currency

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) was established in 1989. APEC member countries are remarkably different from each other in many respects. The traditional optimum currency area (OCA) theory may not be suitable for application to APEC. This paper stresses business cycles and trade intensity, which are included in OCA theory, and considers whether or not the "currency union" is suitable. The paper develops a procedure for applying OCA theory to APEC and examines these criteria while taking into account the endogeneity of these criteria. The result indicates that adopting the dollar for currency union is much more reasonable than adopting the yen.

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