scholarly journals Capital flows, real exchange rates, and capital controls: What is the scope of liberalization for Tunisia?

2013 ◽  
Vol 60 (4) ◽  
pp. 515-540
Author(s):  
Charfi Marrakchi
Keyword(s):  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Capital Account Liberalization ◽  
Capital Liberalization ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
Need To Evaluate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Political Decisions

This paper deals with an important aspect of Tunisian economic and political decisions related to the opportunity for currency convertibility. Tunisia has established its current currency convertibility and has taken steps to achieve full convertibility of the dinar by gradually removing capital flow obstacles. Theoretical and empirical literature suggests that capital account liberalization generally leads to capital inflow in developing countries, generating an appreciation in the real exchange rate (RER) and thus a loss in competitiveness. However, preserving competitiveness is a key challenge for monetary authorities, who have to conciliate these two apparently conflicting purposes. To guide their decisions with respect to the prescribed procedure for capital liberalization, we need to evaluate the impact of each capital component flow on the RER. The question is addressed by analyzing impulse response functions (IRF) resulting from a VAR model, covering 1970 to 2010 and gathering the RER, its fundamental determinants, monetary variables and an estimated capital control (CC) variable. Results show that a relaxation of CC overappreciates the RER to its long-term level, and liberalizing portfolio investment is the most compromising for competitiveness.

scholarly journals Essays on Disaster Risk and Economic Development

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Azreen Karim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
The Self ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Agricultural Income ◽  
The Poor ◽  
The Impact

<p>This thesis consists of four self-contained papers in the areas of disaster risk and economic development. Chapter One provides a qualitative survey of the empirical literature on the nexus among poverty, inequality and natural disasters. The last few years have seen an explosion of economic research on the consequences of natural disasters. This new interest is attributable first and foremost to a growing awareness of the potentially catastrophic nature of these events, but also a result of the increasing awareness that natural disasters are social and economic events. Here, we survey the literature that examines the direct and indirect impact of natural disaster events specifically on the poor and their impact on the distribution of income within affected communities and societies.  With a meta-regression analysis of the existing literature on the impacts of disasters on households in Chapter Two, we observe several general patterns. Incomes are clearly impacted adversely, with the impact observed specifically in per-capita measures. Consumption is also reduced, but to a lesser extent than incomes. Poor households appear to smooth their food consumption by reducing the consumption of non-food items; in particular health and education, and this suggests potentially long-term adverse consequences. Given the limits of our methodology and the paucity of research, we find no consistent patterns in long-term outcomes. We place disaster risk to the poor within the context of sustainable development and future climatic change.  Our objective In Chapter Three is to identify all of the directly observable determinants’ of publicly allocated and realized spending for disaster risk reduction (DRR) at the local government (sub-district) level in Bangladesh. We employ the Heckman two-stage selection model with detailed public finance and other data from 483 sub-districts (Upazilas) across the country. While some of our results conform with our priors, our estimations surprisingly find that government does not respond to the sub-district’s risk exposure as a factor affecting the DRR financing mechanism. This variable is consistently counter-intuitively statistically insignificant. The DRR regional allocations do not seem to be determined by risk and exposure, only weakly by vulnerability, nor even by more transparent political economy motivations.  In Chapter Four, we examine the short-run economic impacts of recurrent flooding on Bangladeshi households surveyed in 2000, 2005 and 2010. In 2010 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES), households answered a set of questions’ on whether they were affected by flood and its likely impacts. We identify two treatment (affected) groups by using the self-reported data and historical rainfall data based flood risk index. We estimate a difference-in-difference (DID) model to quantify the impacts on income, expenditure, asset and labour market outcomes and further extend our analysis to different income and expenditure brackets. Overall, we find robust evidence of negative impacts on agricultural income and expenditure. Intriguingly, the extreme poor (i.e. the bottom 15th quintile) experience significant positive impacts on agricultural income in the self-reported treatment case.</p>

Corruption, public debt and economic growth – evidence from developing countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carole Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the effect of corruption on public debt and economic growth in 20 developing countries over the period 1996-2018. Design/methodology/approach This study makes use of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to detect the long-term relationships, on the one hand, between corruption and public debt and, on the other hand, between corruption and economic growth. Findings The empirical results reveal that corruption increases the debt-to-GDP ratio and that the interactions between corruption and public revenues and between corruption and public spending have a positive influence on public debt in the long run. The estimations also show that high corruption hampers long-term economic growth and increases the negative effect of public debt on economic growth in developing countries. Originality/value While corruption is a prevalent phenomenon in most developing countries, the literature still lacks empirical examination of its economic effects. This study fills this gap with the aim of highlighting that high corruption hinders development in developing nations. This study also examines the impact of the interactions between corruption and components of the fiscal balance on public debt. Moreover, while the existing empirical literature uses regression techniques, this paper uses a panel ARDL approach to detect the long-term effects of corruption.

What matters for the future? Comparing Globe's future orientation with Hofstede's long-term orientation

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Alipour
Keyword(s):  
Future Orientation ◽  
Cash Holdings ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Temporal Orientation ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper aims to compare the future orientation (FO) society practices dimension of the Globe model with Hofstede's long-term orientation (LTO) by testing their causal effects on three firm-level variables: cash holdings, long-term investments and acquisitions. In doing so, this research challenges the already taken-for-granted assumption in the empirical research that the two dimensions are equivalent.Design/methodology/approachHierarchical linear modeling (HLM) was used to test the hypotheses on 7,065 firms across 49 countries between 2000 and 2017.FindingsThe findings show that the causal impacts of FO society practices and LTO on a given construct are not consistent. Although LTO increases cash holdings, the impact of FO society practices on this variable is insignificant. Additionally, unlike FO society practices, which significantly increases long-term investments and acquisitions, LTO does not influence long-term investments and decreases acquisitions.Originality/valueThis study is valuable since it addresses the confusion surrounding the similarities and differences between FO society practices and LTO. Despite the dissimilarity also emphasized by Globe, Hofstede claims that they are equivalent, and the great majority of the empirical literature has assumed them to be equivalent in their analyses. Addressing this confusion, this research provides further empirical evidence that these two dimensions are dissimilar. The additional important contribution of the study is theorizing and examining the impact of FO society practices and LTO on the firm-level outcomes that reflect their temporal orientation (i.e. long-term investments and acquisitions), which is surprisingly neglected in the literature.

scholarly journals Essays on Disaster Risk and Economic Development

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Azreen Karim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
The Self ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Agricultural Income ◽  
The Poor ◽  
The Impact

<p>This thesis consists of four self-contained papers in the areas of disaster risk and economic development. Chapter One provides a qualitative survey of the empirical literature on the nexus among poverty, inequality and natural disasters. The last few years have seen an explosion of economic research on the consequences of natural disasters. This new interest is attributable first and foremost to a growing awareness of the potentially catastrophic nature of these events, but also a result of the increasing awareness that natural disasters are social and economic events. Here, we survey the literature that examines the direct and indirect impact of natural disaster events specifically on the poor and their impact on the distribution of income within affected communities and societies.  With a meta-regression analysis of the existing literature on the impacts of disasters on households in Chapter Two, we observe several general patterns. Incomes are clearly impacted adversely, with the impact observed specifically in per-capita measures. Consumption is also reduced, but to a lesser extent than incomes. Poor households appear to smooth their food consumption by reducing the consumption of non-food items; in particular health and education, and this suggests potentially long-term adverse consequences. Given the limits of our methodology and the paucity of research, we find no consistent patterns in long-term outcomes. We place disaster risk to the poor within the context of sustainable development and future climatic change.  Our objective In Chapter Three is to identify all of the directly observable determinants’ of publicly allocated and realized spending for disaster risk reduction (DRR) at the local government (sub-district) level in Bangladesh. We employ the Heckman two-stage selection model with detailed public finance and other data from 483 sub-districts (Upazilas) across the country. While some of our results conform with our priors, our estimations surprisingly find that government does not respond to the sub-district’s risk exposure as a factor affecting the DRR financing mechanism. This variable is consistently counter-intuitively statistically insignificant. The DRR regional allocations do not seem to be determined by risk and exposure, only weakly by vulnerability, nor even by more transparent political economy motivations.  In Chapter Four, we examine the short-run economic impacts of recurrent flooding on Bangladeshi households surveyed in 2000, 2005 and 2010. In 2010 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES), households answered a set of questions’ on whether they were affected by flood and its likely impacts. We identify two treatment (affected) groups by using the self-reported data and historical rainfall data based flood risk index. We estimate a difference-in-difference (DID) model to quantify the impacts on income, expenditure, asset and labour market outcomes and further extend our analysis to different income and expenditure brackets. Overall, we find robust evidence of negative impacts on agricultural income and expenditure. Intriguingly, the extreme poor (i.e. the bottom 15th quintile) experience significant positive impacts on agricultural income in the self-reported treatment case.</p>

scholarly journals The Seasons of COVID-19: understanding the mood of older adults in the UK through a barometer survey spanning 12 months

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 737-737
Author(s):  
Nicola Palmarini ◽  
Lesley Hall ◽  
Alex Mitchell ◽  
James McNaughton ◽  
Charlotte Nixon
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Global Spread ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Key Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Political Decisions

Abstract The impact of COVID-19 on older adults has been analysed through different research approaches. However, with its sudden global spread, combined with uncertainty about which countermeasures would be employed, there was a lack of opportunity to systematically and continuously engage in a system of observing the moods of older adults forced to live in unexpected conditions. Ageist narratives, social distancing, the unending barrage of real and fake news, and the lockdowns, have given rise to what we define as a series of “seasons” of life, characterised not by the weather barometer, but by moods of people. How much did these external events, like the impact of weather, affect the mood of older adults? We immediately recognised the pandemic’s long-term nature, and thanks to our position as an "observatory" of social dynamics, and because of our existing community of older adults (VOICE), we could involve our members to provide valuable insights about mood and wellbeing during the pandemic. We initiated a weekly pulse survey, based on the two same questions, starting in week 13 of 2020. Across the 50 weeks which followed, we received 2577 responses. They rated their mood on a scale of 1 (extra-stormy) to 5 (all sunshine), before we collated the data and mapped on key events related to media announcements and political decisions. Our research showed the impact of these events on the mood of participants, and the potential of this approach to identify trends in mood to help policy makers with informed decision-making during unprecedented times.

Acquisitions and the shareholder base

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (10/11) ◽  
pp. 1416-1432
Author(s):  
Nicholas Wonder ◽  
Claire Lending
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Instrumental Variables Approach ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of acquisitions on the number of shareholders of the acquirer (the shareholder base) and relate that effect to the method of payment and the ratio between the target’s and acquirer’s shareholder bases prior to the acquisition. Design/methodology/approach Using 348 acquisitions from 1993 to 2013 for which both parties are public, American firms, the paper measures changes in the acquirer’s shareholder base from before announcement through to four years after completion. OLS regressions, together with an instrumental variables approach addressing the endogeneity of acquisition payment, indicate the determinants of those changes. Findings Acquisitions completed partly or entirely in stock lead to large increases in the shareholder base, and the increases mostly endure over the four-year window examined in the study. Regression results indicate that the target to acquirer shareholder ratio has a much greater impact on the acquirer’s base for stock acquisitions than for cash acquisitions. The ratio is also associated with changes in beta. Practical implications Because existing theoretical and empirical literature shows that the shareholder base impacts the risk, liquidity, and market value of stock, managers evaluating potential targets and modes of payment may wish to consider the likely impact on their firms’ shareholder bases, as may investors contemplating the effects of an acquisition announcement. Originality/value This is the first work documenting both a short- and long-term impact of acquisitions on the shareholder base and the first to investigate the determinants of the change in the base.

scholarly journals When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominika Ehrenbergerova ◽  
Josef Bajzik ◽  
Tomas Havranek
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mortgage Markets ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

Several central banks have leaned against the wind in the housing market by increasing the policy rate preemptively to prevent a bubble. Yet the empirical literature provides mixed results on the impact of short-term interest rates on house prices: the estimated semi-elasticities range from -12 to positive values. To assign a pattern to these differences, we collect 1,447 estimates from 31 individual studies that cover 45 countries and 69 years. We then relate the estimates to 39 characteristics of the financial system, business cycle, and estimation approach. Our main results are threefold. First, the mean reported estimate is exaggerated by publication bias, because insignificant results are underreported. Second, omission of important variables (liquidity and long-term rates) likewise exaggerates the effects of short-term rates on house prices. Third, the effects are stronger in countries with more developed mortgage markets and generally later in the cycle when the yield curve is flat and house prices enter an upward spiral.

scholarly journals The Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth in Morocco: Econometric Analysis Using VECM

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kawthar Aghoutane ◽  
Mohamed Karim
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The present work aims to contribute to the empirical literature on the effectiveness of Foreign aid in Morocco. We use the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to jointly capture the long-run relationship and short-run dynamics between Official Development Assistance and economic growth. Other variables such as investment, exports, and government consumption are also included in the model. The results indicate that the foreign aid promotes growth through government consumption in the short term. However, the impact of aid on economic growth becomes negative in the long term.

scholarly journals SVAR ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACTS OF CORPORATE TAXATION ON THE MACRO ECONOMY OF LITHUANIA

Ekonomika ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 91 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
V ioleta Klyvienė ◽  
Jaunius Karmelavičius
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Corporate Taxation ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Response Functions ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Svar Model ◽  
Capital Tax ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Structural Vector

Abstract. This study aims to investigate the effects of tax policy on the macroeconomic variables of Lithuania. Special attention is devoted to conclusions concerning the impact of corporate taxation. The methodological framework is structural vector autoregression models identified using the Cholesky and Blanchard–Perotti approaches. Investigations of the impact of fiscal policy have been scarce in the empirical literature of Lithuania. The authors of this article use the methodology of assessing the impacts of fiscal policy that has not been used in Lithuania so for.JEL classification: E62, H25, F21.Key words: SVAR model, impulse response functions, fiscal policy, capital tax, investment

The British attempt to manage long-term interest rates in 1962–1964

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
William A. Allen
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Securities Market ◽  
Market Maker ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The British monetary authorities tried to encourage lower long-term interest rates through their government debt management operations between 1962 and 1964, following the Radcliffe report's recommendation that they should have an objective for long-term rates, and with the intention of supporting the government's pursuit of faster economic growth. The implementation of the policy was complicated by the Bank of England's role as a market maker in the government securities market, and beset by misunderstandings among the monetary authorities. The policy was abandoned when the conditions of strong market demand for bonds on which it depended changed. The article describes how the policy was developed and implemented, and the impact of political preferences on it.

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