scholarly journals The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth: An application to Turkey

2010 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 447-469
Author(s):  
Senay Acikgoz ◽  
Merter Mert
Keyword(s):  
Capital Stock ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
Production Factors ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Turkish Economy

The purpose of this paper is to examine the sensitivity of the Turkish economy?s natural rate of growth to the actual rate of growth, covering the period 1980-2008. To determine the reason why the natural rate of growth is endogenous, the long-run and the causality relationships between real gross domestic product and each of the production factors (labour force and physical capital stock) are investigated with the bounds test. The natural rate of growth for the Turkish economy is found to be at 4.97 percent and it increases approximately 35.6 percent in the boom periods; indicating endogeneity. However, according to the causality test results, the endogeneity of the natural rate of growth may be attributed to the total factor productivity rather than the labour force and physical capital stock. This result is important and the debate on this subject may lead to further studies.

scholarly journals The Nexus between Export and Economic Growth in Tanzania

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. p95
Author(s):  
Romanus L. Dimoso (PhD, Economics) ◽  
UTONGA, Dickson (MSc. Economics)
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Government ◽  
Econometrics Analysis

This study explored the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in Tanzania. It analyzed time series data for the period of 1980 to 2015. Economic growth is measured in terms of growth per cent while exports are measured in percentage change of goods and services sold abroad. Econometrics analysis was employed in the due course. Such procedures as testing for the presence of unit root, co-integration and causality were done. Furthermore, the Johansen co-integration and Granger causality tests were employed to examine the long-run relationship among variables. The results of co-integration indicate the existence of one co-integrating equation. The causality test results exhibited causality which runs from economic growth to exports. The results conclude that, in the long run, there is a relationship between exports and economic growth in Tanzania. This study recommends the Government to make efforts to improve exports and eventually, in the long-run, rejuvenating the economy.

scholarly journals Does Chinese FDI, Climate Change, and CO2 Emissions Stimulate Agricultural Productivity? An Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (18) ◽  
pp. 7485 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shakeel Ahmad ◽  
Muhammad Tariq ◽  
Touseef Hussain ◽  
Qasir Abbas ◽  
Hamidullah Elham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Pakistan’s agricultural sector growth is dwindling from the last several years due to insufficient foreign direct investment (FDI) and a drastic climate change-induced raise in temperature, which are severely affecting agricultural production. The FDI has paramount importance for the economy of developing countries as well as the improvement of agricultural production. Based on the time series data from 1984 to 2017, this paper aims to highlight the present situation of the agriculture sector of Pakistan and empirically analyze the short-run and long-run impact of Chinese foreign direct investment (CFDI), climate change, and CO2 emissions on agricultural productivity and causality among the variables. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) model and Granger Causality test were employed to find out the long-run, short-run, and causal relationships among the variables of interest. Furthermore, we have employed the Error Correction Model (ECM) to know the convergence of the equilibrium path. The bound test results verified the existence of a long-run association, and the empirical findings confirmed that Chinese FDI has a significant and positive impact, while climate change and CO2 emissions has negative impact on the agricultural growth of Pakistan both in the short-run and long-run. Granger Causality test results revealed that variables of interest exhibit bi-directional and uni-directional causality. The sector-wise flow of FDI reveals that the agriculture sector of Pakistan has comparatively received a less amount of FDI than other sectors of the economy. Based on the findings, it was suggested to the Government of Pakistan and policymakers to induce more FDI in the agriculture sector. Such policies would be helpful for the progress of the agriculture sector as well as for the economic growth of Pakistan.

scholarly journals Economic Policy Uncertainty and Financial Innovation: Is There Any Affiliation?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeng Jia ◽  
Besnik Hajdari ◽  
Rimsha Khalid ◽  
Jianguo Wei ◽  
Md Qamruzzaman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asymmetry Effects

The study's motivation is to gauge the nexus between economic policy uncertainty and financial innovation for the period 2004M1 to 2018M12 in BRIC nations. For establishing a long-run cointegration study applied Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) and asymmetry effects of economic policy uncertainty investigated following nonlinear framework known as NARDL. Furthermore, directional causality is established by performing a non-granger causality test. Cointegration test results of Fpss, Wpss, and tBDM confirmed the long-run association between EPU and financial innovation. On the other hand, the Wald test results proved asymmetry effects furring from EPU to financial innovation both in the long-run and short-run. Referring to asymmetry effects that positive and negative shocks in financial innovation, the study revealed that negative linkage between shocks in EPU and financial innovation in the long-run but short-run effects are insignificant. Furthermore, financial innovation measured by R&D investment exhibits positive linked with shocks in EPU, implying that uncertainty induces innovation in the economy. Refers to directional causality estimation, the study revealed evidence supporting the feedback hypothesis between EPU and financial innovation in all sample countries.

Testing the Tourism-Led Growth hypothesis: The case of Malta

2009 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 331-343 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Katircioglu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Causality Tests

Tourism-Led Growth (TLG) hypothesis results are inconclusive for Mediterranean countries in the relevant literature. This study contributes to the literature by employing the bounds test for co-integration and Granger causality tests to investigate level relationship and the direction of causality between international tourism and economic growth in the case of Malta. Results reveal that a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between international tourism and economic growth in the case of Malta. On the other hand, Granger causality test results suggest that both the Tourism-Led Growth and output-driven tourism hypotheses can be inferred for Malta since there is bidirectional causation between international tourism and economic growth.

scholarly journals The impact of minimum wage on unemployment, prices, and growth: A multivariate analysis for Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (221) ◽  
pp. 65-83
Author(s):  
Biçerli Kemal ◽  
Merve Kocaman
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Minimum Wage ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to research the impact of minimum wage on unemployment, prices, and growth for the Turkish economy. The data used is monthly and covers the period from January 2005 to March 2017. The producer price index represents prices and the industrial production index represents growth. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used to see the effect of the minimum wage on these variables. An error-correction based Granger causality test is then conducted to see short-run and long-run causalities. The bounds test yields evidence of a long-run relationship between variables. The obtained ARDL results also show that while the minimum wage has a statistically significant effect on unemployment and prices, it does not have a statistically significant effect on production. While there is short-run causality from minimum wage to prices only, the obtained significant error correction terms indicate long-run causality for all of the variables. Consequently, the minimum wage plays a significant role in increasing prices and the number of unemployed people in Turkey.

Effects of Economic Globalization, Foreign Capital Influx on Export in ECOWAS

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 20180055 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ousseini Amadou Maiga ◽  
Xiaojuan Hu ◽  
Terence Metuge Mekongcho ◽  
Salifou Kigbadjah Coulibaly
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Economic Globalization ◽  
West African ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Subject

The relationships between globalization, foreign direct investment (FDI), and exports (trade) have been the subject of in-depth studies leading to mixed and inconclusive results. This study investigates how globalization and FDI influence and affect export, as well as the responsiveness of exports to globalization shocks in the West African ECOWAS region over the period 1980–2014. To investigate these phenomena, the study uses Panel VAR, cointegration methods and long-run estimation methods to estimate the short-run, cointegration and long-run relationships, as well as the responsiveness of export shocks due to economic globalization and FDI. The Panel VAR and Granger causality test results showed that there is a positive and significant effect as well as a causal relationship between economic globalization, non-export GDP, and short-term exports. Further, the study also shows that there is no significant effect and no causal relationship between FDI and exports in the short-run, but, FDI has a positive and significant relationship with export in the long-run in the ECOWAS region. The cointegration and long-run analysis showed the existence of cointegration and a long-run relationship between exports and the regressors included in this study.

scholarly journals Examining the Causal Relationship between Private Sector Credit Extended and Economic Growth in Namibia

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2(J)) ◽  
pp. 23-29
Author(s):  
Andreas . ◽  
J P S Sheefeni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Stationarity Test ◽  
Lending Rates

The paper examined causality between Private Sector Credit Extension (PSCE) and Economic growth using quarterly data for the period 2000:Q1-2017:Q4, in Namibia. The variables employed were Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Private Sector Credit Extended, Broad Money Supply (M2) and lending rates. The study tested for stationarity in order to determine the order of integration. Furthermore, a co-integration test was conducted on different sets of variables to establish the long run relationship. Granger causality test was also conducted to establish the direction of the relationships between the variables. The results for the stationarity test showed a combination of different orders of integration. The co-integration test revealed a stable long-run relationship among the variables. The Granger causality test results revealed one-directional causality running from PSCE to GDP. Therefore, one can conclude that that change in private sector credit extended can help predict economic growth.

scholarly journals TRANSMISI HARGA JAGUNG DI PROVINSI LAMPUNG

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 75
Author(s):  
Rati Purwasih ◽  
Muhammad Firdaus ◽  
Sri Hartoyo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Price Transmission ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Asymmetric Price Transmission ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Corn Prices

<em>Corn is one of the leading commodities in Lampung Province. The average corn price received by farmers (producers) from January 2009 to December 2014 amounted to Rp 1.820 per kilogram, while the average price of corn at the consumer level was at Rp 3.205 per kilogram. Corn prices at the consumer level are more volatile when compared with the price of corn at the producer level. The purpose of this study are to analyze the transmission of corn prices from the consumer level to the producer level in Lampung Province. The data used was a monthly time series data from January 2009 to December 2014 (72 month). Asymmetric Error Correction Model (AECM) developed by von Cramon-Taubadel and Loy (1996) was used to analyze corn price transmission from the consumer level to the producer level. Causality test results indicate that corn prices at the consumer level affect the formation of corn prices at the producer level. From AECM estimates obtained, the short run corn price transmission from the consumer level to the producer level was asymmetric. However, the long-run transmission of corn prices from the consumer level to the producer was symmetric. After the Wald test, results obtained showed that there was no prove of asymmetric price transmission from the consumer level to the producer level in the long run.</em>

HEALTH CARE EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: AN EMPIRICAL APPRAISAL OF THE NEXUS

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-86
Author(s):  
Alemu Kingsley Imandojemu ◽  
Desmond Uareime Imonikhe ◽  
Nathaniel Toyosi Akinlosotu ◽  
Aina Jamiu Babatunde
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Health Care Expenditure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
National Growth

A nation’s wealth is often described in terms of their physical stock of capital per time for the promotion of economic growth. One of such physical stock of capital is a healthy labour force. Therefore, this study investigated the relationship between health expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria from 1985 to 2019. To determine this, annual time series data was collected from various issues of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and the World Development Indicator (WDI). Stationarity, long run relationship, equation estimation and causality were determined using the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Johansen-Cointegration, Parsimonious Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) and Pairwise Granger Causality test respectively. The result showed that a long run relationship exist among the variables while the ECM showed that in event of a disequilibrium, the system would restore itself to equilibrium at an adjustment speed of approximately 85.5percent. The result uncovered that current and past percentage of health expenditure in total expenditure (PHETE), government final consumption expenditure (GFCE), and labour force participation (LABF) all had direct impact on national growth (real GDP per capita) while current and past number of infant deaths (NUFD) had inverse relationship with national growth. Result further showed that there exists a unidirectional causality running from NUFD to RGDPPC; from GFCE to RGDPPC; from LABF to RGDPPC, from NUFD to PHETE, from LABF to PHETE, from NUFD to GFCE and from NUFD to LABF. It was recommended that the federal government through the Ministry of Health should endeavour to encourage private-public partnership in the building of quality health infrastructure such as hospitals with state of art facilities in localities where standard health care centres are not accessible to working citizens.

scholarly journals Impact of Financial Risk Indicators on Banks’ Financial Performance in Ghana

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Zhongming Tan ◽  
Frimpong Samuel ◽  
Guoping Ding
Keyword(s):  
Financial Performance ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This research is to study the impact of some financial risk indicators on fifteen selected commercial banks’ in Ghana. The indication from the augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test results show that the data series after first difference at the first order achieved stationarity. The analysis of the data revealed the existence of significant long run relationship between bank financial performance and the variables of financial risk in the banking sector. The granger causality test results reveal that there is unidirectional causality flowing from the variables of financial risk This suggest that the indicators of financial risk strongly and actively stimulate and improve the financial performance of banks in Ghana. The study recommends that bank managers should improve on the management of all the indicators of financial risk variables in order to improve on the achievement of the objective of the firm.

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