scholarly journals Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation over the Western Balkan countries and its links with the atmospheric circulation patterns

2021 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-42
Author(s):  
Dragan Milosevic ◽  
Rastislav Stojsavljevic ◽  
Szilárd Szabó ◽  
Ugljesa Stankov ◽  
Stevan Savic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
Precipitation Increase ◽  
Mediterranean Oscillation

Temporal and spatial variability of annual and seasonal precipitation from 71 stations located in Western Balkan (WB) countries (Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro) and their correlations with nine atmospheric circulation patterns was examined for the period 1950-2016. Annual precipitation increased significantly throughout the WB (from 2% to 8% per decade) on 20% of stations located mainly in the mountainous western Serbia and eastern Bosnia and Herzegovina. Winter was characterized by non?significant precipitation changes in most of the studied area, with only a few stations characterized by significant precipitation increase (up to 12% per decade) in the mountainous area of WB, and a few stations characterized by significant decrease (up to -6% per decade) in the Pannonian plain. Significant precipitation increase was noticed on 15% of the stations in spring, while it was noticed on 17% of the stations in autumn. Summer precipitation decreased significantly (up to -5% per decade) on a limited area of northern Serbia (6% of the stations), while the majority of stations showed non?significant increase. The strongest influences on annual precipitation in WB region are of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Mediterranean Oscillation (MO), leading to the precipitation decrease during their positive phases. Winter precipitation is significantly negatively correlated with AO, East Atlantic/Western Russia oscillation (EA/WR), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and has a significant positive correlation with Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) on the majority of stations. MO has the strongest influence on summer precipitation in WB region leading to precipitation decrease, while AO has the dominant influence on precipitation in the region during autumn.

scholarly journals Variability of seasonal and annual precipitation in Slovenia and its correlation with large-scale atmospheric circulation

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dragan D. Milošević ◽  
Stevan M. Savić ◽  
Milana Pantelić ◽  
Uglješa Stankov ◽  
Igor Žiberna ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Temporal And Spatial Variability ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
Adriatic Coast ◽  
Mediterranean Oscillation

AbstractThis paper examines temporal and spatial variability and trends of annual and seasonal precipitation in Slovenia and their relationship with three atmospheric circulation patterns represented by their indices: North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOi), Mediterranean Oscillation index (MOi) andWestern Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi). Data from 45 precipitation stations were used for the period 1963–2012.Mean annual precipitation varies from 736 mm in eastern Slovenia to 2,518 mm in northwestern Slovenia. A significant annual precipitation decrease (from −3% to −6% per decade) is observed in western Slovenia. Significant negative trends are observed in southwestern Slovenia in summer (from −4% to −10% per decade) and near the Adriatic coast in spring (from −6% to −10% per decade). Non-significant negative and positive trends are observed in winter and autumn, respectively. Results indicate significant correlations between winter precipitation and MOi (from −0.3 to −0.7), NAOi (from −0.3 to −0.6) andWeMOi (from 0.3 to 0.6). Significant We-MOi influence is observed in spring and autumn, while NAOi and MOi influence has not been detected. Annual precipitation and WeMOi are significantly correlated in central and eastern Slovenia, while significant NAOi and MOi influence is observed in western Slovenia (with the larger area covered by MOi influence).

scholarly journals Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 3235-3248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Tramblay ◽  
S. El Adlouni ◽  
E. Servat
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Precipitation Indices ◽  
Precipitation Records ◽  
Mediterranean Oscillation ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract. Maghreb countries are highly vulnerable to extreme hydrological events, such as floods and droughts, driven by the strong variability of precipitation. While several studies have analyzed the presence of trends in precipitation records for the Euro-Mediterranean basin, this study provides a regional assessment of trends on its southernmost shores. A database of 22 stations located in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia with between 33 and 59 yr of daily precipitation records is considered. The change points and trends are analyzed for eleven climate indices, describing several features of the precipitation regime. The issue of conducting multiple hypothesis tests is addressed through the implementation of a false discovery rate procedure. The spatial and interannual variability of the precipitation indices at the different stations are analyzed and compared with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), western Mediterranean Oscillation (WEMO), Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show a strong tendency towards a decrease of precipitation totals and wet days together with an increase in the duration of dry periods, mainly for Morocco and western Algeria. On the other hand, only a few significant trends are detected for heavy precipitation indices. The NAO and MO patterns are well correlated with precipitation indices describing precipitation amounts, the number of dry days and the length of wet and dry periods, whereas heavy precipitation indices exhibit a strong spatial variability and are only moderately correlated with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

scholarly journals Maximum temperatures over Slovenia and their relationship with atmospheric circulation patterns

Geografie ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 122 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dragan D. Milošević ◽  
Stevan M. Savić ◽  
Uglješa Stankov ◽  
Igor Žiberna ◽  
Milana M. Pantelić ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
East Atlantic ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
The North ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

This paper examines temporal and spatial patterns of annual and seasonal maximum temperatures (Tmax) in Slovenia and their relationship with atmospheric circulation patterns. A significant increase in maximum temperature (Tmax; from 0.3°C to 0.5°C·decade-1) was observed throughout the country at the annual scale in the period 1963–2014. Significant positive trends are observed on all stations in summer (from 0.4°C to 0.7°C·decade-1) and spring (from 0.4°C to 0.6°C·decade-1). The results indicate significant correlations between the mean annual maximum temperature (Tmax) and the East Atlantic Oscillation (EA) (from 0.5 to 0.7), the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (from 0.4 to 0.7) and the Scandinavian Oscillation (SCAND) (from −0.3 to −0.4) throughout the country. A significant EA influence is observed in all seasons, while the AO influence is noticed in winter and spring, SCAND in spring and summer, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) in winter, the East Atlantic/Western Russia Oscillation (EA/WR) in summer and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in autumn.

scholarly journals Decadal Variability in the Impact of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns on the Winter Climate of Northern Russia

2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 1005-1021
Author(s):  
Gareth J. Marshall
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Temporal Consistency ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
The North ◽  
Dominant Pattern ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Northern Russia ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe Arctic continues to warm at a much faster rate than the global average. One process contributing to “Arctic amplification” involves changes in low-frequency macroscale atmospheric circulation patterns and their consequent influence on regional climate. Here, using ERA5 data, we examine decadal changes in the impact of seven such patterns on winter near-surface temperature (SAT) and precipitation (PPN) in northern Russia and calculate the temporal consistency of any statistically significant relationships. We demonstrate that the 40-yr climatology hides considerable decadal variability in the spatial extent of such circulation pattern–climate relationships across the region, with few areas where their temporal consistency exceeds 60%. This is primarily a response to the pronounced decadal expansion/contraction and/or mobility of the circulation patterns’ centers of action. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant pattern (having the highest temporal consistency) affecting SAT west of the Urals. Farther east, the Scandinavian (SCA), Polar/Eurasian (POL), and West Pacific patterns are successively the dominant pattern influencing SAT across the West Siberian Plains, Central Siberian Plateau, and mountains of Far East Siberia, respectively. From west to east, the SCA, POL, and Pacific–North American patterns exert the most consistent decadal influence on PPN. The only temporally invariant significant decadal relationships occur between the NAO and SAT and the SCA and PPN in small areas of the North European Plain.

scholarly journals Changes in stability and jumps in Dansgaard–Oeschger events: a data analysis aided by the Kramers–Moyal equation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Rydin Gorjão ◽  
Keno Riechers ◽  
Forough Hassanibesheli ◽  
Dirk Witthaut ◽  
Pedro G. Lind ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
The North ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Fold Bifurcation ◽  
North Atlantic Climate ◽  
Paleoclimate Records

Abstract. Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events are sudden climatic shifts from cold to substantially milder conditions in the arctic region that occurred during previous glacial intervals. They can be most clearly identified in paleoclimate records of δ18O and dust concentrations from Greenland ice cores, which serve as proxies for temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns, respectively. The existence of stadial (cold) and interstadial (milder) phases is typically attributed to a bistability of the North Atlantic climate system allowing for rapid transitions from the first to the latter and a more gentle yet still fairly abrupt reverse shift from the latter to the first. However, the underlying physical mechanisms causing these transitions remain debated. Here, we conduct a data-driven analysis of the Greenland temperature and atmospheric circulation proxies under the purview of stochastic processes. Based on the Kramers–Moyal equation we present a one-dimensional and two-dimensional derivation of the proxies' drift and diffusion terms, which unravels the features of the climate system's stability landscape. Our results show that: (1) in contrast to common assumptions, the δ18O proxy results from a monostable process, and transitions occur in the record only due to the coupling to other variables; (2) conditioned on δ18O the dust concentrations exhibit both mono and bistable states, transitioning between them via a double-fold bifurcation; (3) the δ18O record is discontinuous in nature, and mathematically requires an interpretation beyond the classical Langevin equation. These findings can help understand candidate mechanisms underlying these archetypal examples of abrupt climate changes.

scholarly journals Influence of springtime atmospheric circulation types on the distribution of air pollutants in the Arctic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manu Anna Thomas ◽  
Abhay Devasthale ◽  
Tiina Nygård
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Transport Models ◽  
Self Organizing Maps ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Types ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
European Arctic ◽  
Pollutant Distribution ◽  
Almost All

Abstract. The transport and distribution of short-lived climate forcers in the Arctic is influenced by the prevailing atmospheric circulation patterns. Understanding the coupling between pollutant distribution and dominant atmospheric circulation types is therefore important, not least to understand the processes governing the local processing of pollutants in the Arctic, but also to test the fidelity of chemistry transport models to simulate the transport from the southerly latitudes. Here, we use a combination of satellite based and reanalysis datasets spanning over 12 years (2007–2018) and investigate the concentrations of NO2, O3, CO and aerosols and their co-variability during 20 different atmospheric circulation types in the spring season (March, April and May) over the Arctic. We carried out a Self-Organizing Maps analysis of MSLP to derive these circulation types. Although almost all pollutants investigated here show statistically significant sensitivity to the circulation types, NO2 exhibits the strongest sensitivity among them. The circulation types with low-pressure systems located over the northeast Atlantic show a clear enhancement of NO2 and AOD in the European Arctic. The O3 concentrations are, however, decreased. The free tropospheric CO is increased over the Arctic during such events. The circulation types with atmospheric blocking over Greenland and northern Scandinavia show the opposite signal in which the NO2 concentrations are decreased and AODs are smaller than the climatological values. The O3 concentrations are, however, increased and the free tropospheric CO decreased during such events. The study provides the most comprehensive assessment so far of the sensitivity of springtime pollutant distribution to the atmospheric circulation types in the Arctic and also provides an observational basis for the evaluation of chemistry transport models.

scholarly journals Trends and variability in extreme precipitation indices over Maghreb countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 3625-3658 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Tramblay ◽  
S. El Adlouni ◽  
E. Servat
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Precipitation Indices ◽  
Precipitation Records ◽  
Mediterranean Oscillation ◽  
Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation

Abstract. Maghreb countries located in North Africa are highly vulnerable to extreme hydrological events, such as floods and droughts, driven by the strong variability of precipitation. While several studies have analyzed the presence of trends in precipitation records for the Euro-Mediterranean Basin, this study provides the first regional assessment of trends on its southernmost shores. A database of 22 stations located in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia with between 33 and 59 yr of daily precipitation records is considered. The change points and trends are analyzed for eleven climate indices describing several features of the precipitation regime. The issue of conducting multiple hypothesis tests is addressed through the implementation of a false discovery rate procedure. The spatial and inter-annual variability of the precipitation indices at the different stations are analyzed and compared with large scale atmospheric circulation patterns, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WEMO), Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show a strong tendency towards a decrease of precipitation totals and wet days together with an increase in the duration of dry periods, mainly for Morocco and western Algeria. On the opposite, only a few significant trends are detected for heavy precipitation indices. The NAO and MO patterns are well correlated with precipitation indices describing precipitation amounts, the number of dry days and the length of wet and dry periods, whereas heavy precipitation indices exhibit a strong spatial variability and are only moderately correlated with large scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

scholarly journals Moisture sources and synoptic conditions of summer precipitation in the glacial zone of the East Sayan Range

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Eduard Y. Osipov ◽  
Olga P. Osipova
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Precipitation Record ◽  
Macro Scale ◽  
Synoptic Conditions

Abstract. Precipitation in high-mountain regions is characterized by a strong heterogeneity due to complex interaction between atmospheric circulation and steep topography, however, extremely rare network of high elevation stations hampers the adequate high resolution regional climate modeling. In this study we present new data of precipitation directly measured in high-mountain catchment, on the continental glacier (East Sayan Range, south of East Siberia) during the summer periods of 2015–2017 using automatic weather station. The precipitation record was compared with near located weather stations and ERA Interim and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Precipitation mode similar to the glacier site was found at the stations located west and northwest, while ERA Interim and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data underestimated the precipitation by 40 % and 70 %, respectively. Atmospheric circulation patterns in days with precipitation were analyzed by using mean sea level pressure, geopotential height at 700 and 500 hPa and classification of macro scale atmospheric processes of the Northern Hemisphere by Dzerdzeevskii. Summer precipitation was mostly associated with meridional southern group of large scale circulation the Northern Hemisphere, while at synoptic scale it basically fell in cyclonic (49 % of precipitation) and low-gradient cyclonic (30 %) baric fields. Six typical atmospheric circulation patterns over the East Sayan were identified for days with precipitation. The sources and atmospheric moisture transfer to the glacier was defined by using the HYSPLIT trajectory model. The most of summer precipitation (70 %) was related with western cyclones, while about 25 % of rainfalls (mainly of moderate to strong intensity) was originated from the south-east (Pacific monsoon influence).

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