scholarly journals The IMF supported program in Serbia & Montenegro

2004 ◽  
Vol 44 (161) ◽  
pp. 7-62
Author(s):  
Dijana Dragutinovic
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Executive Board ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Cash Basis ◽  
The Current Account ◽  
The Imf

On December 20, 2000 Yugoslavia was readmitted to the IMF, which led to the approval of emergency post conflict assistance. On June 11, 2001, the Executive Board of the IMF approved a Stand-by arrangement. On May 13, 2002 the Executive Board of the IMF approved an Extended Arrangement. In general the IMF supported programs are focused on the following: (I) restrained fiscal policy; (II) consistent monetary and exchange rate policies; (III) wage and price policies; and (IV) structural policy. In the period from 2001 to 2003, considerable progress was made in the creation of an appropriate institutional environment for the operation of a market economy. Serbia & Montenegro is growing at rate that are about twice as large as EU growth rate; however, after a two year period of recovery and accelerated reforms 2003 has seen a slowing in the rate of economic growth. Although inflation was relatively low in 2003, large imbalances continued: (I) the fiscal deficit amounted to 4.2 percent of GDP on a cash basis; (II). the current account deficit was 12.5 percent of GDP. Having in mind two potential causes of macroeconomic instability, discussions between the IMF and country authorities focused on the need to tighten fiscal policy to reduce the pace of domestic demand and improve the current account deficit in the short run.

What Explains Current Account Surplus in Korea?

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 70-93
Author(s):  
Chirok Han ◽  
Kwanho Shin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Current Account Surplus ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Current Account

Since the currency crisis in 1998, Korea has experienced continuous current account surpluses. Recently, the current account surplus increased more rapidly—amounting to 7.7 percent of GDP in 2015. In this paper, we investigate the underlying reasons for the widening of Korea's current account surpluses. We find that the upward trend in Korea's current account surpluses is largely explained by its demographical changes. Other economic variables are only helpful when explaining short run fluctuations in current account balances. Moreover, we show that Korea's current account surplus is expected to disappear by 2042 as it becomes one of the most aged economies in the world. Demographic changes are so powerful that they explain, quite successfully, the current account balance trends of other economies with highly aged populations such as Japan, Germany, Italy, Finland, and Greece. When we add the real exchange rate as an additional explanatory variable, it is statistically significant with the right sign, but the magnitude explained by it is quite limited. For example, to reduce the current account surplus by 1 percentage point, a 12 percent depreciation is needed. If Korea's current exchange rate is undervalued 4 to 12 percent less than the level consistent with fundamentals, it is impossible to reduce Korea's current account surplus to a reasonable level by adjusting the exchange rate alone. Another way to reduce current account surplus is to expand fiscal policies. We find, however, that the impact of fiscal adjustments in reducing current account surplus is even more limited. According to our estimates, reducing the current account surplus by 1 percentage point requires an increase in budget deficits (as a ratio to GDP) of 5 to 6 percentage points. If we allow endogenous movements of exchange rate and fiscal policy, the impact of exchange rate adjustment increases by 1.6 times but that of fiscal policy decreases that it is no longer statistically significant.

scholarly journals The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence from Pakistan

2000 ◽  
Vol 39 (4II) ◽  
pp. 535-550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anjum Aqeel ◽  
Mohammed Nishat
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Theoretical Work ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Improved Performance ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Current Account

Like most developing countries a steady budget deficit in Pakistan is the primary cause of all major ills of the economy. It has varied between 5.4 to 8.7 percent during last two decades. On the other hand the current account deficit varied between 2.7 to 7.2 percent during the same period. The variations in fiscal policy can lead to predictable developments in an open economy’s performance on current account, remains a controversial issue. An important aspect of this issue concerns what is termed as twin deficit analysis, according to which fiscal deficits and current account balances are very closely related so that reductions in the former are both necessary and sufficient to obtain improved performance in the later. Theoretical work on the relationship that exist between variations in fiscal policy and the current account balance has been based upon two types of models. These models are constructed from postulated behavioural relationships that purport to describe how the economy works in aggregate without explaining the behaviour of agents who make up the economy [Mundel (1963); Branson (1976); Dornbusch (1976); Kawai (1985) and Marston (1985)]. The second type of model, derives the important macroeconomic relationships from the microfoundations of individual optimising behaviour [Dixit (1978); Neary (1980); Obstfeld (1981); Persson (1982); Kimbrough (1985); Frenkel and Razin (1986); Cuddington and Vinals (1985, 1986a) and Moore (1989)]. However, both of these approaches have yielded divergent results.

Pakistan will have to rely more on IMF

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Impact ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Operations ◽  
The Current Account ◽  
The Imf

Subject Pakistan's economic woes. Significance Prime Minister Imran Khan says he cannot afford to declare a COVID-19 lockdown in Pakistan because of the damage it would do to the economy, although provincial authorities have imposed restrictions on movements and business operations anyway. Meanwhile, Islamabad has approached the IMF for a 1.4-billion-dollar loan to help deal with the economic impact of the pandemic, on top of the 6.0-billion-dollar bailout it secured from the Fund last year. Impacts Khan will increasingly emphasise the importance of youth volunteers in helping poorer people affected by the COVID-19 crisis. Currently low oil prices may help reduce Pakistan’s import bill even as the current account deficit widens. The Federal Board of Revenue will struggle for direction until its leadership situation is clarified.

Fiscal policy and the current account: are microstates different?

2013 ◽  
Vol 45 (29) ◽  
pp. 4137-4151
Author(s):  
Yehenew Endegnanew ◽  
Charles Amo-Yartey ◽  
Therese Turner-Jones
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Current Account ◽  
The Current Account

scholarly journals The Relationship between Current Account Deficits and Growth in Montenegro: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Özer ◽  
Jovana Žugić ◽  
Sonja Tomaš-Miskin
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Current Account Deficits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract In this study, we investigate the relationship between current account deficits and growth in Montenegro by applying the bounds testing (ARDL) approach to co-integration for the period from the third quarter of 2011 to the last quarter of 2016. The bounds tests suggest that the variables of interest are bound together in the long run when growth is the dependent variable. The results also confirm a bidirectional long run and short run causal relationship between current account deficits and growth. The short run results mostly indicate a negative relationship between changes in the current account deficit GDP ratio and the GDP growth rate. This means that any increase of the value of independent variable (current account deficit GDP ratio) will result in decrease of the rate of GDP growth and vice versa. The long-run effect of the current account deficit to GDP ratio on GDP growth is positive. The constant (β0) is positive but also the (β1), meaning that with the increase of CAD GDP ratio of 1 measuring unit, the GDP growth rate would grow by 0,5459. This positive and tight correlation could be explained by overlapping structure of the constituents of CAD and the drivers of GDP growth (such as tourism, energy sector, agriculture etc.). The results offer new perspectives and insights for new policy aiming for sustainable economic growth of Montenegro.

scholarly journals RECENT SCENARIO OF CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IN INDIA

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (5SE) ◽  
pp. 106-112
Author(s):  
Yogambal N
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Current Scenario ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
The Current Account

Current Account Deficit topic deals with the meaning, the overview of the concept related with current scenario of the balance of trade. Through this paper we can come to know Gross Domestic position till recent date and impact of current account deficit. Just it gives idea whether current account deficit really harmful or good sign. This paper reveals the evaluation of current account deficit and also, reflection in various ways and also the implications of the reversals. It was concluded with few ideas which were shared as the suggestions to overcome the current account deficit.Global trends were analysed to know our country status.

The Effects of Macroprudential Policies on Financial Stability in Developing Countries

2019 ◽  
pp. 92-114
Author(s):  
Sümeyra Gazel
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Common Factor ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
The Current Account

In this chapter, the concept of financial instability is examined in terms of the policy instruments used by central banks. Although the policy instruments used in each country differ according to the country conditions, it is thought that the common factor among developing countries with a current account deficit problem is exchange rate volatility resulting from excessive credit growth and short-term capital movements. In this context, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, Indonesia, India, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, and Turkey are examined with regard to the effects of macroprudential policies on financial stability for the period between Q2 of 2006 and Q2 of 2017 by using the time-varying panel causality test developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin. The results of the analysis indicate that excessive credit growth is a cause of the current account deficit. The same findings are also valid for interest rate. There is no obvious link between the exchange rate and the current account deficit.

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