scholarly journals Mehanizam uticaja promene deviznog kursa na inflaciju

2003 ◽  
Vol 44 (158) ◽  
pp. 149-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dejan Miljkovic
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Export Prices ◽  
Fixed Exchange Rate ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

The implementation of an adequate exchange rate policy inevitably leads us to the pass-through of exchange rate changes on export prices and inflation. During the last decade of 20th century, there was a lot of research done on the pass-through of exchange rate changes from the microeconomic aspect. This approach, known as New Open Economy Macroeconomics, is theoretically grounded mainly on producers' ability to price discriminate in markets for export goods. Consistent with the established theoretical framework, the focus of this research has been directed towards studying the pass-through of exchange rate changes to export prices. Relatively few research papers, also based on theoretical grounds of basically macroeconomic character, have dealt with the pass-through of exchange rate changes to inflation. This paper observes the pass-through of exchange rate changes to inflation from the macroeconomic aspect. The starting point of our theoretical consideration of the pass-through of exchange rate changes to inflation is the well-known Dornbusch's overshooting model. The observation of the pass-through of exchange rate changes to inflation within the overshooting model allows us to observe two dimensions through which changes in the exchange rate pass through to inflation. The first dimension observes the pass-through of nominal exchange rate changes to inflation, whereas the second one observes the deviations of the nominal exchange rate from the equilibrium nominal exchange rate, having simultaneous internal and external equilibrium. The final pass-through of exchange rate changes to inflation will depend on the joint influence of both dimensions. Also, the pass-through of exchange rate changes to inflation will be observed in the countries with a fixed exchange rate system, which so far has not been a common situation in practice. We believe that exchange rate changes pass through to inflation even in a fixed exchange rate system, when a change in the exchange rate is equal to zero, which is manifested in deviations of the nominal exchange rate from the equilibrium exchange rate.

scholarly journals Measuring the relationship between the balance of payments and the exchange rate - A case study of a group of Arab countries during the period 2000/2016-

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 44-66
Author(s):  
Abd Elouahid SERARMA ◽  
Newfel BAALOUL
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Arab Countries ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship

The Objective of this study is to examine the effect of exchange rate system on the balance of payments, with a case study of a group of Arab countries. First we shed light on the most important theoretical and empirical studies of exchange rate systems and their macroeconomics effects in one hand. In the other hand we study a case of six oil exporting Arab countries. To achieve this purpose we adopted a panel data and run an econometric model to examine the relationships between the variables during the period 2000 to 2016. The study concluded that there is a significant positive correlation between the exchange rate as an independent variable and the balance of payments as a dependent variable, and there is no deference in the effects of the exchange system in the study of six Arab economies.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: Evidence from OECD Countries

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harun Bal ◽  
Mehmet Demiral ◽  
Filiz Yetiz
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

There is an immense literature on the effects of exchange rate changes on macroeconomic indicators, specifically on the trade balance, growth, inflation, and overall productivity in open economies. One of the main attempts in the related literature is about ascertaining whether the exchange rate fluctuations alter domestic prices. This possible mechanism is called as the pass-through effect which is getting more important since the argument that exchange rate adjustment is a part of the solution for global rebalancing is empirically well-supported. Starting from this claim, this study purposes to explore whether there is an exchange rate pass-through effect in 19 high-income OECD countries over the period 1990-2015. To this end, using a panel data set of consumer price index, producer price index proxied by wholesale price index, the nominal effective exchange rates, and industrial production presented by the value-added share of industry sectors in gross domestic product, structural vector autoregressive (VAR) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are estimated in an unbalanced panel data analysis procedure. Results reveal that exchange rate pass-through effects on the domestic prices are significant but not that strong in both the short-run and the long-run. Expectedly, the pass-through effects tend to diminish over time. The study concludes that policy-makers need to consider policy actions accompanying the exchange rate changes to ensure domestic price stability which consequently interacts with many macroeconomic indicators.

scholarly journals KEMBALI KE SISTIM KURS TETAP (FIXED EXCHANGE RATE)?

2007 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Edy Rahmantyo Tarsilohadi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Condition ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate System ◽  
Monetary System ◽  
Fixed Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate System ◽  
The Right

Indonesia do want make the right Exchange Rate System, with be back to the Fixed Exchange Rate. In this paper, because of the economic condition and the environment monetary system, so the best system is still the Flexible Exchange Rate.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Case Study of a Small Open Economy

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 1850112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olajide Oladipo
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through ◽  
Future Path

The exchange rate pass-through for Nigeria imports is estimated by applying an econometric procedure to sectoral data which avoids the pit-falls in previous studies. We use the mark-up approach, which implies setting export prices as a mark-up on production costs. So, the price facing importers is the exchange rate adjusted production costs where mark-up depends on the competitive pressures in the import's market and the nominal exchange rate. Our results indicate incomplete pass-through at varying degrees across sectors, which implies that the foreign exporters passed on only part of the increase in their costs of production to import prices. Also, it reveals that the effort of the Nigerian government in encouraging companies to use local inputs where possible instead of relying on imported intermediate inputs is gradually yielding positive results. Important policy implications that follow from our results of incomplete pass-through to domestic prices could influence CBN forecasts of future path of inflation, a key element in the conduct of monetary policy. Indeed, the successful implementation of monetary policy presupposes that CBN has not only a good understanding of inflation dynamics but is also relatively successful at predicting the future path of inflation. Also, our results imply that the exchange rate policy may be a blunt instrument when used to restore external balance since relative price adjustments will be limited. Furthermore, the incomplete pass-through suggests that exchange rate changes are likely to lead to smaller real effects on the economy through lower changes in both the terms of trade and import volumes and finally, the extent of inflation (deflation) effects of exchange rate depreciation (appreciation) operating through changes in the prices of imported goods will be moderated.

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