scholarly journals Modelling the potential distribution and habitat suitability of the alien fungus Clathrus archeri in Romania

2021 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 241-250
Author(s):  
Ciprian Bîrsan ◽  
Constantin Mardari ◽  
Ovidiu Copoţ ◽  
Cătălin Tănase
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Maximum Entropy Model ◽  
Invasive Potential ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
Model Approach

Clathrus archeri is a saprophytic fungus native to the southern hemisphere which was introduced in Europe in the early twentieth century. Although it is naturalized in most regions of Central Europe, in Romania it is considered rather a rare species because it has been identified in only a few localities. Because of the rapid expansion of its range throughout Europe some authors assign this species an invasive potential. The objective of the paper was to identify both the potential distribution area and the potential suitable habitats for expansion in Romania and to highlight the environmental variables driving the probability of its occurrence. The maximum entropy model approach implemented in Maxent was used to model the species? potential distribution. The results highlighted altitude, snow cover length, the mean temperature of the driest quarter, and precipitation in the coldest quarter as the most important predictors of species? potential distribution in Romania. The map of the predicted distribution showed that the highest probability of occurrence for this species is in the mountainous and adjacent areas, while the map of habitat suitability confirmed that the best environmental conditions are in the Carpathians, while the most unfavourable are in the south-eastern regions of the country.

scholarly journals Habitat Suitability Study of Hylomecon Japonica Based on Maxent Model in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cao Zhen ◽  
Zhang Xiaoyan ◽  
Xue Xuanji ◽  
Zhang Lei ◽  
Zhan Guanqun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Jackknife Test ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Growth Area ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Background: To understand the potential distribution and habitat suitability of H. japonica in China. And to provide guidance for the wild cultivation and standardized planting of H. japonica. Methods: The maximum entropy model (Maxent) and geographic information system (ArcGIS) were applied to predict the potential suitable habitat of H. japonica species, and the contribution of variables were evaluated by using the jackknife test. Results: The AUC value confirmed the accuracy of the model prediction based on 101 occurrence records. The potential distributions of H. japonica were mainly concentrated in Jilin, Liaoning, Shaanxi and other provinces (adaptability index>0.6). Jackknife experiment showed that the precipitation of driest month (35.6%), precipitation of wettest quarter (13.4%), the mean annual temperature (7.8%) and the subclass of soil (7.8%) were the most important factors affecting the potential distribution of H. japonica. Conclusion: The niche parameters of the most suitable growth area (adaptability index>0.8) for H. japonica were precipitation of driest month (5 mm), precipitation of wettest quarter (400-490 mm), the mean annual temperature (-2-4 °C) and the subclass of soil (Glossy Chernozem, Gleyic Lime, Haplic Gypsisols).

scholarly journals Phylogeography of the rare and endangered lycophyte Isoetes yunguiensis

PeerJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. e8270
Author(s):  
Tao Zheng ◽  
Xuanze He ◽  
Honghuan Ye ◽  
Wei Fu ◽  
Maimai Peng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Diversity ◽  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Ssr Markers ◽  
Expressed Sequence Tag ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Maximum Entropy Model ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Living Fossil ◽  
Genetic Diversity And Structure

Background Isoetes yunguiensis Q. F. Wang & W. C. Taylor is a lycophyte of an ancient genus, and it is endemic to China. It is a first-class protected plant in China. This living fossil is used in paleoecology and studies on the evolution of Lycophytes in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. In recent years, human activities have caused the disappearance of several wild populations, and the number of plants in the existing populations is low. Study of the genetic structure, distribution pattern, and historical dynamics of I. yunguiensis in all areas of its distribution is of guiding significance for its rational and effective protection. Methods Expressed sequence tag-simple sequence repeat (EST-SSR) markers were used to study the genetic diversity and structure of I. yunguiensis, and noncoding chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) sequences were used to study the pedigree, population dynamics history, and glacial shelter of I. yunguiensis. A maximum entropy model was used to predict the past, present, and future distribution patterns of I. yunguiensis. Results Analysis with EST-SSR markers revealed that I. yunguiensis showed high genetic diversity and that genetic variation was significantly higher within populations than between populations. Based on cpDNA data, it was concluded that there was no significant geographic pedigree in the whole area of I. yunguiensis distribution (NST = 0.344 >  GST = 0.183, p > 0.05); 21 haplotypes were detected using DnaSP v5. Neutral test and LAMARC simulation showed that I. yunguiensis has experienced rapid expansion in recent years. The maximum entropy model predicted that the potential distribution area of I. yunguiensis in the last glacial maximum period has increased significantly compared with the present distribution area, but the future distribution area did not show substantial changes.

scholarly journals Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Xerophytic Shrub Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica) under Two Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonzalo Vargas-Piedra ◽  
Ricardo David Valdez-Cepeda ◽  
Armando López-Santos ◽  
Arnoldo Flores-Hernández ◽  
Nathalie S. Hernández-Quiroz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Importance ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica Zucc.) is a shrub species distributed throughout the Chihuahuan Desert in northern Mexico and southern of the United States of America. Candelilla has an economic importance due to natural wax it produces. The economic importance and the intense harvest of the wax from candelilla seems to gradually reduce the natural populations of this species. The essence of this research was to project the potential distribution of candelilla populations under different climate change scenarios in its natural distribution area in North America. We created a spatial database with points of candelilla presence, according to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). A spatial analysis to predict the potential distribution of the species using Maxent software was performed. Thirteen of 19 variables from the WorldClim database were used for two scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (4.5 as a conservative and 8.5 as extreme). We used climate projections from three global climate models (GCMs) (Max Planck institute, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the Met Office Hadley), each simulating the two scenarios. The final predicted distribution areas were classified in five on-site possible candelilla habitat suitability categories: none (< 19%), low (20–38%), medium (39–57%), high (58–76%) and very high (> 77%). According to the area under the curve (0.970), the models and scenarios used showed an adequate fit to project the current and future distribution of candelilla. The variable that contributed the most in the three GCMs and the two RCPs was the mean temperature of the coldest quarter with an influence of 45.7% (Jackknife test). The candelilla’s distribution area for North America was predicted as approximately 19.1 million hectares under the current conditions for the high habitat suitability; however, the projection for the next fifty years is not promising because the GCMs projected a reduction of more than 6.9 million hectares using either the conservative or extreme scenarios. The results are useful for conservation of the species in the area with vulnerable wild populations, as well as for the selection of new sites suitable for the species growth and cultivation while facing climate change.

scholarly journals The relationship between forest fragmentation and the potential geographical distribution of psittacids (Psittaciformes: Psittacidae) in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

2017 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 1470
Author(s):  
Alexis Herminio Plasencia Vázquez ◽  
Griselda Escalona Segura ◽  
Yarelys Ferrer Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Forest Fragmentation ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Yucatan Peninsula ◽  
Quintana Roo ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Yucatán Peninsula ◽  
Amazona Oratrix ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Relationship

Parrots are a seriously threatened group because of the illegal pet trade, their habitat fragmentation and the destruction of tropical forests. This study aimed to determine the relationship between forest fragmentation and the geographic potential distribution of parrot species in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The research was carried out in the Mexican portion of the Yucatan Peninsula Biotic region, which includes the states of Campeche, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. We worked with the eight species of psittacids that inhabit the selected areas: Eupsittula nana, Amazona albifrons, Amazona xantholora, Amazona autumnalis, Pionus senilis, Pyrilia haematotis, Amazona oratrix and Amazona farinosa. For these species, we used the potential geographical distribution maps that were obtained through the Maximum Entropy algorithm, published in 2014. To measure the levels of forest fragmentation in the Peninsula, we employed the land use and vegetation maps from series IV (2007-2010) of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography. We calculated different landscape metrics at 100 sites randomly distributed within the predicted presence and absence areas for the species. Multivariate methods were used to shorten dimensionality in the analysis, as well as to explore the observed patterns. We did not find any pattern regarding the number of variables that contribute to the logistic regression models (LR) and the size of the parrots’ potential geographical distribution area within the Peninsula. For Pyrilia haematotis and Amazona oratrix, the fragmentation variables used did not seem to have any relationship with their potential geographical distribution in the Peninsula (intersection, Pr < 0.0001). Only for Eupsittula nana, Amazona xantholora and Pionus senilis, we found that the mean patch edge, the mean shape index and the mean perimeter-area ratio were important to determine their potential distribution patterns, respectively; and, in general, the variables indicated the preferences of these parrots to occupy larger habitat patches. Parrots must be given a special care and protection within the states of Campeche and Quintana Roo, since there are areas with high parrot diversity and are importantly affected by human activities. The best recommendation for managers and users of protected areas within the Yucatan Peninsula is that extensive areas of forest should be maintained in order to guarantee the suvival of psittacid populations.

scholarly journals Impact of Past and Future Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of an Endangered Montane Shrub Lonicera oblata and Its Conservation Implications

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Yuan-Mi Wu ◽  
Xue-Li Shen ◽  
Ling Tong ◽  
Feng-Wei Lei ◽  
Xian-Yun Mu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Endangered Species ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
North China ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Interglacial Period ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Conservation Implications ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity patterns and species distributions, understanding how organisms respond to climate change will shed light on the conservation of endangered species. In this study, we modeled the distributional dynamics of a critically endangered montane shrub Lonicera oblata in response to climate change under different periods by building a comprehensive habitat suitability model considering the effects of soil and vegetation conditions. Our results indicated that the current suitable habitats for L. oblata are located scarcely in North China. Historical modeling indicated that L. oblata achieved its maximum potential distribution in the last interglacial period which covered southwest China, while its distribution area decreased for almost 50% during the last glacial maximum. It further contracted during the middle Holocene to a distribution resembling the current pattern. Future modeling showed that the suitable habitats of L. oblata contracted dramatically, and populations were fragmentedly distributed in these areas. As a whole, the distribution of L. oblata showed significant migration northward in latitude but no altitudinal shift. Several mountains in North China may provide future stable climatic areas for L. oblata, particularly, the intersections between the Taihang and Yan mountains. Our study strongly suggested that the endangered montane shrub L. oblata are sensitive to climate change, and the results provide new insights into the conservation of it and other endangered species.

scholarly journals Simulation of the Potential Distribution of the Glacier Based on Maximum Entropy Model in the Tianshan Mountains, China

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1541
Author(s):  
Tongxia Wang ◽  
Zhengyong Zhang ◽  
Lin Liu ◽  
Zhongqin Li ◽  
Puyu Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Pattern ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Tianshan Mountains ◽  
Glacier Area ◽  
Maximum Entropy Model ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
High Emission ◽  
High Emission Scenario

Under the background of global climate change, the variation in the spatial distribution and ice volume of mountain glaciers have a profound influence on regional economic development and ecological security. The development of glaciers is like biological succession; when climate change approaches or exceeds the threshold of suitable conditions for glacier development, it will lead to changes in potential distribution pattern. Therefore, from the perspective of the "biological" characteristics of glaciers, it is a beneficial exploration and attempt in the field of glaciology to explore its potential distribution law with the help of the niche model. The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) can explain the environmental conditions suitable for the survival of things by analyzing the mathematical characteristics and distribution laws of samples in space. According to glacier samples and the geographical environment data screened by correlation analysis and iterative calculation, the potential distribution pattern of Tianshan glaciers in China in reference years (1970–2000) was simulated by MaxEnt. This paper describes the contribution of geographical environmental factors to distribution of glaciers in Tianshan Mountains, quantifies the threshold range of factors affecting the suitable habitat of glaciers, and predicts the area variation and distribution pattern of glaciers under different climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) in the future (2040–2060, 2080–2100). The results show that the MaxEnt model has good adaptability to simulate the distribution of glaciers. The spatial heterogeneity of potential distribution of glaciers is caused by the spatio-temporal differences of hydrothermal combination and topographic conditions. Among the environmental variables, precipitation during the wettest month, altitude, annual mean temperature, and temperature seasonality have more significant effects on the potential distribution of glaciers. There is significant spatial heterogeneity in the potential distribution of glaciers in different watersheds, altitudes, and aspects. From the forecast results of glacier in various climatic scenarios in the future, about 18.16–27.62% of the total reference year glacier area are in an alternating change of melting and accumulation, among which few glaciers are increasing, but this has not changed the overall retreat trend of glaciers in the study area. Under the low emission scenario, the glacier area of the Tianshan Mountains in China decreased by 18.18% and 23.73% respectively in the middle and end of the 21st century compared with the reference years and decreased by 20.04% and 27.63%, respectively, under the high emission scenario, which showed that the extent of glacier retreat is more intense under the high emission scenario. Our study offers momentous theoretical value and practical significance for enriching and expanding the theories and analytical methods of the glacier change.

scholarly journals Using Ecological Niche Modeling For Biodiversity Conservation Guidance In The Western Podillya (Ukraine): Amphibians

2015 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Tytar ◽  
S. Mezhzherin ◽  
L. Sobolenko
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Ecological Niche Modeling ◽  
Niche Modeling ◽  
Amphibian Species ◽  
Potential Habitat ◽  
Human Footprint ◽  
Bombina Variegata ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Maximum entropy niche modeling was employed as a tool to assess potential habitat suitability for 13 amphibian species and to map their potential distribution in the Western Podillya (Ukraine). The predictor variables used were of climate, topography and human impact (assessed by the Human Footprint). The “mean temperature of coldest quarter” and “isothermality” were two of the most important factors in predicting habitat suitability and distribution. Another profound contribution has been displayed by the Human Footprint, meaning that human infrastructure may benefit amphibians, a phenomenon that perhaps is much more widespread than thought. Areas have been distinguished that in the first place should be of interest to nature conservationists targeting amphibians (exemplified by Bombina variegata) and a map summarizing species richness was produced.

Predicting the potential distribution of main malaria vectors Anopheles stephensi, An. culicifacies s.l. and An. fluviatilis s.l. in Iran based on maximum entropy model

Acta Tropica ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 169 ◽  
pp. 93-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamran Pakdad ◽  
Ahmad Ali Hanafi-Bojd ◽  
Hassan Vatandoost ◽  
Mohammad Mehdi Sedaghat ◽  
Ahmad Raeisi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Anopheles Stephensi ◽  
Malaria Vectors ◽  
Maximum Entropy Model ◽  
Entropy Model

scholarly journals Predicting the Potential Geographic Distribution and Habitat Suitability of Two Economic Forest Trees on the Loess Plateau, China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 747
Author(s):  
Wei Xu ◽  
Jingwei Jin ◽  
Jimin Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Loess Plateau ◽  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Prunus Armeniaca ◽  
Forest Trees ◽  
The Loess Plateau ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
Potential Geographic Distribution

The Loess Plateau is one of the most fragile ecosystems in the world. In order to increase the biodiversity in the area, develop sustainable agriculture and increase the income of the local people, we simulated the potential geographic distribution of two economic forest trees (Malus pumila Mill and Prunus armeniaca L.) in the present and future under two climate scenarios, using the maximum entropy model. In this study, the importance and contributions of environmental variables, areas of suitable habitats, changes in habitat suitability, the direction and distance of habitat range shifts, the change ratios for habitat area and land use proportions, were measured. According to our results, bioclimatic variables, topographic variables and soil variables play a significant role in defining the distribution of M. pumila and P. armeniaca. The min temperature of coldest month (bio6) was the most important environmental variable for the distribution of the two economic forest trees. The second most important factors for M. pumila and P. armeniaca were, respectively, the elevation and precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17). At the time of the study, the area of above moderately suitable habitats (AMSH) was 8.7967 × 104 km2 and 11.4631 × 104 km2 for M. pumila and P. armeniaca. The effect of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-85 was more dramatic than that of SSP1-26. Between now and the 2090s (SSP 5-85), the AMSH area of M. pumila is expected to decrease to 7.5957 × 104 km2, while that of P. armeniaca will increase to 34.6465 × 104 km2. The suitability of M. pumila decreased dramatically in the south and southeast regions of the Loess Plateau, increased in the middle and west and resulted in a shift in distance in the range of 78.61~190.63 km to the northwest, while P. armeniaca shifted to the northwest by 64.77~139.85 km. This study provides information for future policymaking regarding economic forest trees in the Loess Plateau.

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