scholarly journals Liberalists and data-solutionists: redefining expertise in Twitter debates on coronavirus in Finland

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (05) ◽  
pp. A10
Author(s):  
Esa Valiverronen ◽  
Salla-Maaria Laaksonen ◽  
Mikko Jauho ◽  
Piia Jallinoja
Keyword(s):  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
The Public ◽  
Networked Expertise

Based on recent accounts of the sociology of expertise, we analyse the public contestation and expansion of expertise in the context of COVID-19. During the epidemic, the expertise of the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), became increasingly contested. By exploring Twitter discussions concerning the actions of THL during the first months of the epidemic from January to mid-June 2020, we analyse the main motivations and arguments in this public contestation as well as the alternative forms of expertise proposed by the critics. We focus particularly on two forms of criticism arguing for what we call networked expertise: liberal crowdsourcing supporters and data-solutionists presenting alternative epidemiological models.

scholarly journals Inhomogeneous Transmission and Asynchronic Mixing in the Spread of COVID-19 Epidemics

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos I. Mendoza
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Subexponential Growth ◽  
The Public ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Mitigation Policies

The ongoing epidemic of COVID-19 first found in China has reinforced the need to develop epidemiological models capable of describing the progression of the disease to be of use in the formulation of mitigation policies. Here, this problem is addressed using a metapopulation approach to consider the inhomogeneous transmission of the spread arising from a variety of reasons, like the distribution of local epidemic onset times or of the transmission rates. We show that these contributions can be incorporated into a susceptible-infected-recovered framework through a time-dependent transmission rate. Thus, the reproduction number decreases with time despite the population dynamics remaining uniform and the depletion of susceptible individuals is small. The obtained results are consistent with the early subexponential growth observed in the cumulated number of confirmed cases even in the absence of containment measures. We validate our model by describing the evolution of COVID-19 using real data from different countries, with an emphasis in the case of Mexico, and show that it also correctly describes the longtime dynamics of the spread. The proposed model yet simple is successful at describing the onset and progression of the outbreak, and considerably improves the accuracy of predictions over traditional compartmental models. The insights given here may prove to be useful to forecast the extent of the public health risks of the epidemics, thus improving public policy-making aimed at reducing such risks.

scholarly journals Inhomogeneous mixing and asynchronic transmission between local outbreaks account for the spread of COVID-19 epidemics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos I Mendoza
Keyword(s):  
Total Population ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Subexponential Growth ◽  
Time Dynamics ◽  
The Public ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Long Time

The ongoing epidemic of COVID-19 originated in China has reinforced the need to develop epidemiological models capable of describing the progression of the disease to be of use in the formulation of mitigation policies. Here, this problem is addressed using a metapopulation approach to show that the delay in the transmission of the spread between different subsets of the total population, can be incorporated into a SIR framework through a time-dependent transmission rate. Thus, the reproduction number decreases with time despite the population dynamics remains uniform and the depletion of susceptible individuals is small. The obtained results are consistent with the early subexponential growth observed in the cumulated number of confirmed cases even in the absence of containment measures. We validate our model by describing the evolution of the COVID-19 using real data from different countries with an emphasis in the case of Mexico and show that it describes correctly also the long-time dynamics of the spread. The proposed model yet simple is successful at describing the onset and progression of the outbreak and considerably improves accuracy of predictions over traditional compartmental models. The insights given here may probe be useful to forecast the extent of the public health risks of epidemics and thus improving public policy-making aimed at reducing such risks.

scholarly journals Supporting Austria through the COVID-19 Epidemics with a Forecast-Based Early Warning System

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Bicher ◽  
Martin Zuba ◽  
Lukas Rainer ◽  
Florian Bachner ◽  
Claire Rippinger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monitoring System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Public ◽  
Hospital Beds ◽  
The Media

BackgroundThe corona crisis hit Austria at the end of February 2020 with one of the first European superspreading events. In response, the governmental crisis unit commissioned a forecast consortium with regularly projections of case numbers and demand for hospital beds.MethodsWe consolidated the output of three independent epidemiological models (ranging from agent-based micro simulation to parsimonious compartmental models) and published weekly short-term forecasts for the number of confirmed cases as well as estimates and upper bounds for the required hospital beds.FindingsHere, we report om four key contributions by which our forecasting and reporting system has helped shaping Austria’s policy to navigate the crisis and re-open the country step-wise, namely (i) when and where case numbers are expected to peak during the first wave, (ii) how to safely re-open the country after passing this peak, (iii) how to evaluate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions and (iv) provide hospital managers guidance to plan health-care capacities.InterpretationComplex mathematical epidemiological models play an important role in guiding governmental responses during pandemic crises, provided they are used as a monitoring system to detect epidemiological change points. For policy-makers, the media and the public, it might be problematic to distinguish short-term forecasts from worst-case scenarios with undefined levels of certainty, creating distrust in the legitimacy and accuracy of such models. However, when used as a short-term forecast-based monitoring system, the models can inform decisions to ease or strengthen governmental responses.

scholarly journals An Accurate Mathematical Epidemiological Model (SEQIJRDS) to Recommend Public Health Interventions Related to COVID-19 in Sri Lanka.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patikiri Arachchige Don Shehan Nilmantha Wijesekara
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Epidemiological Model ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Practical Model ◽  
Negative Impacts

Abstract COVID-19 has been causing negative impacts on various sectors in Sri Lanka as a result of the public health interventions that government had to implement in order to reduce the spreading of the disease. Equivalent work carried out in this context is outdated and close to ideal models. This research is carried out in a crucial time which the daily deaths are rapidly increasing which arise the requirement for an accurate and practical model to predict the mortality in order to take decisions regarding public health interventions. This paper presents a mathematical epidemiological model called SEQIJRDS to predict on COVID-19. The model has been validated for the COVID 19 pandemic in Sri Lanka. The results show that the model outstands many of the state-of-the-art SEIR epidemiological models such as Imperial, IHME once properly parameterized. At the end; this work recommends public health interventions at this crucial time to save people's lives based on the predictions of the proposed model. Specifically, 3 recommendations called minimal, sub-optimal and optimal recommendations are provided for public health interventions.

Replications can cause distorted belief in scientific progress

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michał Białek
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Scientific Progress ◽  
The Public ◽  
Psychological Science

AbstractIf we want psychological science to have a meaningful real-world impact, it has to be trusted by the public. Scientific progress is noisy; accordingly, replications sometimes fail even for true findings. We need to communicate the acceptability of uncertainty to the public and our peers, to prevent psychology from being perceived as having nothing to say about reality.

Hospitals: N.Y. Appellate Court Denies Move to Privatize Public Hospital

1999 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 202-203
Author(s):  
Robert Chatham
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Public Health System ◽  
Municipal Hospital ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Benefit ◽  
For Profit ◽  
Benefit Corporation ◽  
The City

The Court of Appeals of New York held, in Council of the City of New York u. Giuliani, slip op. 02634, 1999 WL 179257 (N.Y. Mar. 30, 1999), that New York City may not privatize a public city hospital without state statutory authorization. The court found invalid a sublease of a municipal hospital operated by a public benefit corporation to a private, for-profit entity. The court reasoned that the controlling statute prescribed the operation of a municipal hospital as a government function that must be fulfilled by the public benefit corporation as long as it exists, and nothing short of legislative action could put an end to the corporation's existence.In 1969, the New York State legislature enacted the Health and Hospitals Corporation Act (HHCA), establishing the New York City Health and Hospitals Corporation (HHC) as an attempt to improve the New York City public health system. Thirty years later, on a renewed perception that the public health system was once again lacking, the city administration approved a sublease of Coney Island Hospital from HHC to PHS New York, Inc. (PHS), a private, for-profit entity.

Democrazy—Dem Go Craze, O: Monitoring the 1999 Nigerian Elections

1999 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-33
Author(s):  
Darren Kew
Keyword(s):  
Transition Program ◽  
The Political ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Soccer Match ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Military

In many respects, the least important part of the 1999 elections were the elections themselves. From the beginning of General Abdusalam Abubakar’s transition program in mid-1998, most Nigerians who were not part of the wealthy “political class” of elites—which is to say, most Nigerians— adopted their usual politically savvy perspective of siddon look (sit and look). They waited with cautious optimism to see what sort of new arrangement the military would allow the civilian politicians to struggle over, and what in turn the civilians would offer the public. No one had any illusions that anything but high-stakes bargaining within the military and the political class would determine the structures of power in the civilian government. Elections would influence this process to the extent that the crowd influences a soccer match.

A Rural County Speech and Language Program

1977 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 250-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hildegarde Traywick
Keyword(s):  
Public Schools ◽  
Speech And Language ◽  
Rural County ◽  
Language Program ◽  
The Public ◽  
Madison County

This paper describes the organization and implementation of an effective speech and language program in the public schools of Madison County, Alabama, a rural, sparsely settled area.

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