scholarly journals Causal Nexus between Government Debt, Exports and Economic Growth for Three Eurozone Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Nikolaos Dritsakis ◽  
Pavlos Stamatiou
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

<em>The relationship between government debt, exports and economic growth has been the focus of a considerable number of academic studies in recent years. The economic crisis, which started in the United States mortgage market, quickly went global when mortgage-backed securities traded by financial institutions. Europe’s response was immediate regarding the measures to tackle the crisis. The establishment of common strategies was the long term goal of the European Union (EU). This paper examines the relationship between government debt, exports and economic growth in the EU countries with the highest level of government debt, using panel data over the period 1990-2014. The Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) methods are used to estimate the long run relationship between the variables. In addition, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is used in order to investigate the causal relationship between the examined variables. The empirical results of the study revealed that there are both short and long run relationships. Findings suggest that that there is a unidirectional causality running from exports to economic growth as well as from exports and economic growth to government debt. The results provide evidence to support the export led-growth hypothesis. Exports are an important factor for economic development. Moreover, the results reveal that government debt is affected by exports both directly and indirectly through economic growth. Policy implications are then explored in the conclusions.</em>

scholarly journals Banking Sector Development, Inflation and Economic Growth in Asian Countries: A Panel Causality and Co-Integration Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 384
Author(s):  
Muhammad Imran Nazir ◽  
Rehana Tabassam ◽  
Ifran Khan ◽  
Muhammad Rizwan Nazir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Banking Sector Development ◽  
Integration Test

This study investigates the causal relationship between banking sector development, inflation, and economic growth for six Asian countries (Bangladesh, China, India, Malaysia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) over the period of 1970-2016. Using a Pedroni panel, Kao co-integration test, Panel Granger causality-based Error Correction Model, Dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS), and Fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS), this study finds that the development of the banking sector generally has a positive relationship with economic growth in the long-run. This results show that in the long-run, monetary policy play a vital role in the economic growth. This study also confirmed the response causality between the indicators of banking sector development and economic growth. Based on the empirical findings, this research provides important policy implications to the banking sector and economic supervisory bodies in order to achieve the long run economic growth.

scholarly journals AGRICULTURE EXPORT STIMULANT TO THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF PAK

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 572-580
Author(s):  
Shaikh Muhammad Saleem ◽  
Muhammad Asif Shamim ◽  
Sayma Zia ◽  
Syed Waqar-ul-Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cumulative Sum ◽  
Agricultural Export ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Agricultural Exports ◽  
Long Run

Purpose: The study examines how agricultural exports boost the economic growth of Pakistan in the long run and suggest policy implications during 1995-2018 using time series data. Methodology: Principal Component Analysis is used to construct an agricultural export index consisting of rice, raw cotton, fruits, and vegetables as variables. This quantitative study checked the structural stability of the model with cumulative-sum & cumulative-sum of the square. Rolling window analysis highlights the long-run yearly effect of the coefficient of the model. The result of variance decomposition method proof bidirectional causality where robust result proof using Fully modified ordinary least square and Dynamic ordinary least square techniques. Unit root at first difference proof stationery whereas cointegration has a long-run relationship between agricultural export and economic growth. Main Finding: The statistical estimation proofs the positive long-run association of agricultural exports with economic growth. Results explored a 26 percent increase in the economy of Pakistan by exporting agricultural goods. Application of this Study: This study helps to develop the economies if they face problems of low agricultural productivity. The agricultural export is sensitive to domestic indicators, and domestic policy can promote agricultural export, and create new potential markets. The originality of the Study: The study is suggested the agriculture techniques and their performance in developing economies.

scholarly journals Pengujian Empiris Pengaruh Ketidakpastian Kebijakan Ekonomi Amerika Serikat Terhadap Dinamika Perekonomian Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 82
Author(s):  
Suwito Suwito ◽  
Siswoyo Hari Santosa ◽  
Duwi Yunitasari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The United States ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
The Relationship

The global economic uncertainy situation is one of the phenomena that occurs at this time. Erratic economic policies in developed countries have an impact on the economy in developing countries. This study analyzes the influence of uncertainty in US economic policy on the dynamics of the Indonesian economy. Estimates using the Ordinary Least square method are used to determine the relationship between variables. Then the data used in this study began in 1998Q1-2016Q4. The estimation results show that the dynamics of uncertainty in US economic policies have a significant effect on the Indonesian economy. EPU variables, US exchange rates, and have a significant effect on Indonesia's economic growth. This result is proven by the IRF which indicates the response from the EPU fluctuation which was responded to by the GDP variable in Indonesia. These conditions indicate that the uncertainty of the economic policies of the United States affects the performance of the Indonesian economy.

scholarly journals Impacto das exportações de alta tecnologia no crescimento econômico: evidências empíricas do Paquistão

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 91 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Usman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Time Span ◽  
Least Square ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Robust Standard Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Data Source ◽  
The Impact

The goal of this study is to explore the impact of high tech exports on economic growth of Pakistan. To examine this relationship, data are collected from World Bank database, State Bank of Pakistan data source and Statistical Bureau of Pakistan. Time span of study is consisting of 20 years from 1995 to 2014. By using ordinary least square (OLS) with robust standard error, results confirm that there is a positive and statistically significant impact of high tech exports on economic growth. Although Pakistan is an agriculture country and its economic growth is largely depend upon farming, but for long run economic growth, Pakistan has to increase its high tech exports.

scholarly journals Impact of Exchange Rate Management on the Nigerian Economic Growth: Empirical Validation

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 28-35
Author(s):  
Friday Osaru Ovenseri Ogbomo ◽  
Precious Imuwahen Ajoonu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Exchange Rate Management ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examined the impact of Exchange Rate Management on economic growth in Nigeria between 1980 and 2015. The study was set to gauge how the management of exchange rate in Nigeria has impacted the economy. The study employed the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method in its analysis. Co-integration and Error Correction Techniques were used to establish the Short-run and Long-run relationships between economic growth and other relevant economic indicators. The result revealed that exchange rate management proxy by various exchange rates regimes in Nigeria was not germane to economic growth. Rather, government expenditure, inflation rate, money supply and foreign direct investment significantly impact on economic growth in Nigeria. It is against this backdrop that the Nigerian economy must diversify her export base to create room for more inflow of foreign exchange.  

Panel Data Analysis of Financial Development, Trade Openness, and Economic Growth: Evidence from BRICS Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ritu Rani ◽  
Naresh Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Panel Granger Causality ◽  
Panel Cointegration Test

The purpose of this article is to investigate the possible cointegration and direction of causality between foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow, trade openness, and economic growth in BRICS countries using panel data from 1993 to 2015. Besides these variables, money supply and domestic credit (DC) to private players are also added in the model to examine the impact of financial openness on economic growth. The Pedroni’s panel cointegration test is used to examine the existence of long-run relationship, and coefficients of cointegration are examined by fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS). Further panel Granger causality test is used to examine the direction of causality among the competing variables. The results of Pedroni’s panel cointegration test indicate that there exists a long-run relationship among the variables under considerations in BRICS countries. The coefficient of FMOLS and DOLS indicates that trade openness has a positive impact on economic growth in BRICS countries while FDI inflow has a negative impact in these nations. In addition, the results of panel Granger causality confirmed bidirectional causality between FDI inflow and economic growth in the short run. The study recommends that BRICS countries should liberalize trade openness as it strengthens the position of member countries in the world economy.

scholarly journals Identification of the Long-Run Determinants of U.S.-Canada Softwood Lumber Trade

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Zara Liaqat ◽  
Xinya Wang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Price Ratio ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Highly Sensitive ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements

This paper uses monthly data from 1994 to 2016 in order to analyze the time series properties of the determinants of Canadian softwood lumber exports to the United States. The key findings generally support the hypotheses of previous studies with the exception of the significance of bilateral exchange rate movements. Based on dynamic ordinary least square estimates and several robust cointegraton tests, the paper finds that the estimated coefficients of exchange rate, softwood lumber price ratio and the two softwood lumber trade agreements are highly sensitive to the lag order used in econometric models. On the other hand, the coefficient of housing starts index remains independent of the variation in number of lags included. In addition, we study the long-run response of Canadian exports of lumber to shocks in these determinants by generating impulse response functions.

scholarly journals Impact of Trade Openness and Human Capital on Economic Growth: A Comparative Investigation of Asian Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2930 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rabail Amna Intisar ◽  
Muhammad Rizwan Yaseen ◽  
Rakhshanda Kousar ◽  
Muhammad Usman ◽  
Muhammad Sohail Amjad Makhdum
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Southern Asia ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Western Asia ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of trade openness and human capital on economic growth in 19 Asian countries from 1985 to 2017. We selected two geographically distributed regions (Western and Southern Asia) based on difference in their GDP per capita. We applied the unit root tests to examine the level of stationarity and found that all variables were integrated at first difference. Kao and Fisher cointegration tests were employed and the results revealed the presence of a long-run relationship. We applied fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models to check the magnitude of the long-run coefficients among trade openness, human capital and economic growth. To investigate the direction of causality, we used a Dumitrescu and Hurlin (DH) causality test. The results indicated that trade openness and human capital have a significant and positive relationship while labor force participation has a negative effect on economic growth in Southern Asia, and in the case of Western Asia, the impact is positive. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has a negative and significant impact on GDP per capita (GDPPC) in Western Asia while it is positive and significant in Southern Asia; Total population (TPOP) has a negative impact on GDPPC in both regions. Furthermore, human capital has a positive and significant impact on trade openness in both panels. Meanwhile, labor force participation (LFP) has a positive and significant impact on trade openness in Southern Asia and a negative impact in the case of Western Asia. Trade openness and economic growth have bidirectional causality in Western Asia and unidirectional causality in Southern Asia. It also shows that human capital and economic growth have unidirectional causality in both regions.

scholarly journals The Effect of Investment Efficiency toward Economic Growth in South Sumatera and Jambi Province

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-80
Author(s):  
Feny Marissa ◽  
Anna Yulianita ◽  
Annisa Fitriyah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Development Stage ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Investment Efficiency ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Output Ratio ◽  
Regional Product ◽  
The Relationship

The study aims to measure and compare the efficiency level of investment to boost economic growth in South Sumatera and Jambi Province. This study use quantitative approach with time series data between 2007 to 2016 from the Central Bureau of Statistic (BPS) and publication related to the study. The efficiency of investment was measured by Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR) approach and analyzed using Ordinary Least Square (OLS). The study indicates that (1) the relationship between investment efficiency  which measured by ICOR approach and economic growth of each provinces (South Sumatera and Jambi) is negative; (2) this research show that investment efficiency in Jambi Province give more effect to its economic growth than South Sumatera and  Jambi Province has grown better than South Sumatera Province in the same development stage without an increase in the proportion of investment to Gross Domestic Regional Product. 

scholarly journals The Role of Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Economic Growth in Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. g11-17
Author(s):  
Tien Siew
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth in Malaysia. The sample collected for this empirical study covered 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. The secondary data was collected annually and a total of 30 observations were taken for each variable. Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression, unit root test, several diagnostic tests and Granger causality test were used in this research to investigate the relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth. Eviews 11 was used to analyze the time series data throughout all the tests. The result showed that the inflows of FDI has a significant negative relationship with economic growth and there is no causal relationship between FDI and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Keywords: Economic growth, FDI inflows, Granger Causality Test, Ordinary Least Square regression, Unit Root Test

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