scholarly journals Analysis of Rice Price Trend and Vertical Integration of Rice Market in Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 074
Author(s):  
Asih Kusumaningsih ◽  
Jamhari Jamhari ◽  
Dwidjono Hadi Darwanto
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Integration ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Integration Model ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Rice Market ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Rice Price

The aims of this study were (1) to determine the trend of retail rice price in Indonesia and the price of grain at the farmer level in Indonesia and (2) to identify the vertical integration of the rice market in Indonesia. The monthly data of retail rice price and the price of grain at the farmer level (price of harvested dried grain at the farmer level) in Indonesia during January 2008 - January 2016 were used in this study. The least squares method was applied to determine the trend of prices, while Co-integration Model of Engle-Granger and ECM was used to estimate the vertical integration of Indonesian rice market. The results indicated that both types of prices had an upward trend. In the analysis of the vertical integration of rice market in Indonesia, there was a long-term balance relationship and short-term equilibrium relationship.

scholarly journals Analisis Indeks Harga Konsumen di Indonesia Melalui Pendekatan Kointegrasi

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 110-118
Author(s):  
Muhamad Muin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Study ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The Relationship

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the rupiah exchange rate (RER) and the money supply (M1) on the outgrowth of the consumer price index (CPI) in Indonesia. The data used in this study are monthly data series from January 2005 to January 2019. The results of this empirical study shows that there is a relationship between RER and M1 on CPI in the long term and there is a correction in the short term balance (ECM) which is influenced by M1. All of these variables are significant at α = 5% and partly significant at α = 1%.

scholarly journals Faktor Eksternal dan Internal yang Mempengaruhi Profitabilitas Bank Syariah di Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Yudhistira Ardana
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Commercial Bank ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Internal Variables ◽  
Business Unit ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Short And Long Term

This study aims to determine the influence of external factors (inflation and BI rate) and internal (CAR, REO, FDR, and NPF) on the level of profitability of sharia banks in Indonesia as measured by ROA. The data used in this study is the data of Sharia Commercial Bank and Sharia Business Unit in Indonesia from 2011 to 2018 using monthly data. This research uses error correction model which is commonly abbreviated as ECM. The results show that the external and internal variables together significantly influence the ROA variable. Individually, CAR, NPF and Inflation variables have no significant effect on ROA, while FDR and REO variables in both short and long term have significant effect on ROA. BI rate in this study has no significant effect on ROA in the short term, but has a significant effect on ROA variable in the long term

scholarly journals TRANSMISI HARGA GABAH TERHADAP HARGA BERAS: TINJAUAN ARAH, BESARAN DAN LAMA PERUBAHAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 140
Author(s):  
Agung Andiojaya
Keyword(s):  
Price Change ◽  
Retail Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Farm Level ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
Rice Prices ◽  
The Government

Policies to maintain rice prices are a sensitive policy in Indonesia so that the government controls the rice price tightly in every level of the rice market. To make sure it runs well, the government needs to take into account the magnitude, direction, and speed of transmission of the rice price changes. When these three things can be monitored and controlled well, the success rate of controlling prices is in hand. This study investigates the direction and speed of transmission of changes in grain prices at the farm level to changes in rice prices at various levels of trade. The empirical results utilizing Granger Causality Test and VAR indicate that changes in the price of grain at the farm level significantly cause changes in rice prices at the milling and wholesale levels in a unidirectional way. Meanwhile, there is a piece of additional information where changes in the retail price of rice significantly cause changes in the price of grain at the farm level rather than vice versa. By implementing the IRFs method reveal the transmission’s duration of price change takes place in the short term and long term. Considering these findings, the policy of stabilizing rice prices at the mill and wholesale levels should be implemented immediately when the price of farmers' grain begins to change.

scholarly journals Retail Business and the Freight Industry in Shanxi Province of China: an Empirical study of Interactive Relationship

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 333-339
Author(s):  
Huiqiong Ding
Keyword(s):  
Shanxi Province ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Integration Model ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Retail Business ◽  
Stationary Test ◽  
Interactive Relationship ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
Relationship Of

The fate of the retailing industry is related to the freight industry of a country. In order to enhance the pulling power that the retailing has to the freight industry, this research investigated the interactive relationship of retailing and freight industry in Shanxi Province of China. Using the software Eviews 5.0®, a Co-integration Model was proposed. Evaluation of the validity of the model, using the Stationary Test, Granger Causality Test and Error Correction, proved that the model proposed had the ability to repair itself. Using the model to explain the relationship between retailing and freight results further revealed that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two variables. Furthermore, this study proved that in order to enhance the pulling power that retailing has to freight industry, there is a need to pay attention to the final consumption, to support retailing and to speed up the urbanization construction.

scholarly journals Komparasi Mekanisme Transmisi Kebijakan Moneter Syariah dan Konvensional Melalui Jalur Harga Aset Terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (10) ◽  
pp. 817
Author(s):  
Nikita Indi Kumala ◽  
Suherman Rosyidi
Keyword(s):  
Financial Services ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Policy Transmission

The purpose of this study is to find out the effect of mechanism Sharia andconventional monetary policy transmission through asset prices on inflation in Indonesia during 2011-2015. The method used is quantitative analysis and the model used is OLS (Ordinary Least Square) to find out the effect in the long term and ECM Model (Error Correction Model) for short term. The data used is time series data with monthly data units during January 2011 to December 2015 period. This study uses the data from Bank Indonesia, the Central Bureau of Statistics (Badan Pusat Statistik), and the Financial Services Authority (Otoritas Jasa Keuangan). The results of this study shows that the syariah model shows significantly negative towards the inflation, and the conventional model shows not significantly towards the inflation.

scholarly journals International Application Model Short-Long Term Between GDP and Consumption : Case Study Indonesia

ECONOMICS ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-90
Author(s):  
Teguh Sugiarto ◽  
Ludiro Madu ◽  
Ahmad Subagyo ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Term Change ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

SUMMARY More recently, significant fluctuations in the Indonesian economy justify the need to pay more attention to this issue. In this case, the main purpose of this research is to know the relationship between two issues related to Indonesian macro economy called consumption and GDP for data period during 1967 until 2014. This study investigates the relationship between GDP variables and Indonesian consumption consumption variables using the test ARDL, cointegration and Granger causality. The result of the research can be concluded that, there is long-run equilibrium relationship between GDP and consumption with long-term ARDL model, 10% change of consumption will produce long-term change of 44% in GDP. It is not surprising that there is no short-run equilibrium relationship between GDP and consumption. 10% of consumption will result in a short-term ARDL model change of 95% in GDP. The variables and consumption of GDP are cointegrated in the long run significantly at lag interval 10, whereas the use of lag interval 1 and 5 is not credited in the long run. Using a cointegration test with lag interval 1, 5 and 10 indicates significant for all usage slowness. So it can be summarized in the context of GDP and coordinated short-term economic consumption for all the prevailing interval lags. concluded that long-term causality test results between GDP variables and significant consumption with time intervals 5 and 10. intervals 1, 15 and 20 have no long-term causality relationship between GDP variables and consumption variables. a short-term causal model. With lagging intervals of 1, 5, 10 and 15, there is a short-term causal relationship between the variable GDP and consumption. As for the use of delay interval 20 there is no causal relationship in the short term between the variable GDP and consumption in Indonesia.

Yet more on a stochastic economic model: Part 3C: stochastic bridging for share yields and dividends and interest rates

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 128-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D. Wilkie ◽  
Şule Şahin
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Brownian Bridge ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Similar Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The Third ◽  
Brownian Bridges ◽  
Retail Prices

AbstractThis is the third and last subpart of a long paper in which we consider stochastic interpolation for the Wilkie asset model, considering both Brownian bridges and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) bridges. In Part 3A, we developed certain properties for both these types of stochastic bridge, and in Part 3B we investigated retail prices and wages. In this paper, we investigate the remainder of many of our data series, relating to shares and interest rates. We conclude that, regardless of the form of the annual model, the monthly data within each year can be modelled by Brownian bridges, usually on the logarithm of the principal variable. But in no case is a simple Brownian bridge enough, and all series have their own peculiarities. Overall, however, our modelling produces simulations that are realistic in comparison with the known data. Many of our findings would apply to any similar model used for simulation over time. Our results have considerable importance for financial economics. We reconcile the conflict between the long-term mean-reverting modelling of Schiller and the short-term random walk modelling of Fama. This conclusion therefore has very wide significance.

scholarly journals The Impact of Economic Shocks On Economic Growth in Iraq During the Period (2004-2018)

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 629-642
Author(s):  
Jafer Safer
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
The Impact

This research aims to study to determine the impact of economic shocks on economic growth in Iraq during the period (2004-2018), and the most important factors that affect economic growth have been identified. And represented in oil prices, the exchange rate, external debt and trade openness, which represent the independent variables of the model used, whereas, economic growth was expressed in gross domestic product as a dependent variable. The usual least squares method is used to estimate the model parameters. The unit root test and the cointegration test were also used. The pulse response functions were estimated to determine the impact of economic shocks on the Iraqi economy during the study period. It was found from the results of the estimation that the time series of the study has stabilized after taking the first differences, There is also a complementarity, that is, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables used, It was also found that the impact of economic shocks resulting from fluctuations in global oil prices was clear on the economic growth in Iraq.

scholarly journals Has the Real-Time Reliability of Monthly Indicators Changed over Time?

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Mark Bognanni
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The Real ◽  
Data Release ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Over Time

Economic data are routinely revised after they are initially released. I examine the extent to which the real-time reliability of six monthly macroeconomic indicators important to policymakers has remained stable over time by studying the time-series properties of their short-term and long-term revisions. I show that the revisions to many monthly economic indicators display systematic behaviors that policymakers could build into their real-time assessments. I also find that some indicators’ revision series have varied substantially over time, suggesting that these indicators may now be less useful in real time than they once were. Lastly, I find that substantial revisions tend to occur indefinitely after the initial data release, a result which suggests a certain degree of caution is in order when using even thrice-revised monthly data in policymaking.

scholarly journals An Empirical Investigation on the Relationship Between the Eurozone Zew Index and the Eurozone Stock Markets

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Nesrin Ceylan ◽  
Turgay Münyas
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Conclusion Section ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract The aim of this study is to investigate the long and short term impact of the Euro ZEW index (ZEW) on the DAX (GDAXI) Germany, FTSE 100 (FTSE) the UK, CAC 40 (FCHI) France, OMXS30 Sweden and CROBEX (CRBEX) Croatia stock market indices using monthly data for the period between February 2008 and December 2020. The Euro ZEW Index was taken as the independent variable, and the index values of Eurozone stock markets were taken as the dependent variables. As a result of the study, the Euro ZEW index was found to have a positive (increasing) statistical significant effect on the DAX, FTSE, OMXS and CRBEX variables. Of the stock markets studied, Croatia CROBEX (CRBEX) index was the most affected index by the change in the Euro ZEW index. The least affected stock market was Germany DAX (GDAXI) index. The effect of the Euro ZEW Index on Euro stock markets was higher in the short-term, and gradually decreasing in the long term. The research findings are discussed in the conclusion section.

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