scholarly journals A Study on the Improvement of the Accuracy of Failure Probability of Breakwaters in view of Sliding Displacement by Monte Carlo Simulation

2008 ◽  
Vol 55 ◽  
pp. 941-945
Author(s):  
Takashi NAGAO ◽  
Takeshi YOSHIOKA ◽  
Ryuzo OZAKI
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Failure Probability

Reliability Estimation of Buried Pipeline Using FORM, SORM and Monte Carlo Simulation

2006 ◽  
Vol 326-328 ◽  
pp. 597-600 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ouk Sub Lee ◽  
Dong Hyeok Kim
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Exposure Time ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Reliability Estimation ◽  
Buried Pipeline ◽  
First Order Reliability Method ◽  
First Order ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
The Difference

In this paper, the failure probability is estimated by using the FORM (first order reliability method), the SORM (second order reliability method) and the Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the reliability of the corroded pipeline. It is found that the FORM technique is more effective in estimating the failure probability than the SORM technique for B31G and MB31G models with three different corrosion models. Furthermore, it is noted that the difference between the results of the FORM, the SORM and the Monte Carlo simulation decreases with the increase of the exposure time.

Monte Carlo simulation in the evaluation of failure probability in waste stabilization ponds

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 ◽  
pp. 101658
Author(s):  
Matheus Sales Alves ◽  
Gustavo Ross Ribeiro Lima ◽  
André Luis Calado Araújo ◽  
Fernando José Araújo da Silva ◽  
Erlon Lopes Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Waste Stabilization Ponds ◽  
Stabilization Ponds ◽  
Waste Stabilization

Reliability Analysis of Uncertain Input Variables for Cracked Structures

2011 ◽  
Vol 52-54 ◽  
pp. 1358-1363 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.R.M. Akramin ◽  
A. Zulkifli ◽  
M. Mazwan Mahat
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Finite Element ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Probabilistic Analysis ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Adaptive Mesh ◽  
Element Analysis ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Technique ◽  
Cracked Structures

Probabilistic analysis aims at providing an assessment of cracked structures and taking relevant uncertainties into account in a rational quantitative manner. The main focus of this research work is on uncertainties aspect which relates with the nature of crack in materials. By using cracked structures modelling, finite element calculation, generation of adaptive mesh, sampling of cracked structure including uncertainties factors and probabilistic analysis using Monte Carlo method, the rigidity of cracked structures is estimated. Assessment of the accuracy in probabilistic structures is essential when limited amount of data is available. The hybrid finite element and probabilistic analysis represents the failure probability of the structures. The probability of failure caused by uncertainties relates to loads and material properties of the structure are estimated using Monte Carlo simulation technique. Numerical examples are presented to show probabilistic analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation provides accurate estimates of failure probability. The comparison shows that the combination between finite element analysis and probabilistic analysis provides a simple and realistic of quantify the failure probability.

Failure probability evaluation of passive system using fuzzy Monte Carlo simulation

2011 ◽  
Vol 241 (5) ◽  
pp. 1864-1872 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Hari Prasad ◽  
Avinash J. Gaikwad ◽  
A. Srividya ◽  
A.K. Verma
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Passive System ◽  
Probability Evaluation

Multidisciplinary reliability analysis of turbine blade with shape uncertainty by Kriging model and free-form deformation methods

2020 ◽  
Vol 234 (4) ◽  
pp. 611-621
Author(s):  
Fan Yang ◽  
Zhimin Xu
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Turbine Blade ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Free Form ◽  
Multidisciplinary Analysis ◽  
Free Form Deformation ◽  
Shape Uncertainty ◽  
Multidisciplinary System

This work presents an integrated approach for the multidisciplinary reliability analysis of turbine blades with shape uncertainty, including the metamodel, the free-form deformation, and the Monte Carlo simulation. The multidisciplinary analysis of turbine blade includes fluid, structure, and thermal analyses, which is time-consuming during integration with multidisciplinary reliability analysis. The metamodel is constructed by adaptive sampling to reduce computational cost. The shape uncertainty with small size changes in reliability analysis should be considered. The geometry-based multidisciplinary analysis may fail to capture the small size changes during the geometry and mesh regeneration process. The main contribution of this article is to introduce the free-form deformation in multidisciplinary reliability analysis to overcome the aforementioned problems. The mesh-based method supported by free-form deformation is proposed. Failure probability analysis of the multidisciplinary blade system is performed using the Monte Carlo simulation and the surrogate model. Through the numerical simulation, it is found that the failure probability increases as the blade shape uncertainty becomes larger. The methodology in this article provides a valuable and applicative way to calculate the risk of blade in multidisciplinary system.

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