scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF DOMINANT HYDRAULIC VARIABLES IN ESTIMATION OF ECONOMIC FLOOD DAMAGE AND ITS APPLICATION TO ESTIMATION OF A FLOOD RISK CURVE

2016 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-37
Author(s):  
Tomohiro TANAKA ◽  
Yasuto TACHIKAWA ◽  
Yutaka ICHIKAWA ◽  
Kazuaki YOROZU
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Risk Curve ◽  
Hydraulic Variables

Application of scenario technique in flood risk management

2007 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 87-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Winterscheid
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Limited Perspective ◽  
Integrated Flood Risk Management ◽  
Scenario Technique ◽  
Management Cycle

It is now commonly accepted that the management of flood risks has to be fulfilled within an integrated framework. About two decades ago flood risk was managed from a limited perspective predominantly by means of structural measures aimed at flood control. In contrast integrated flood risk management incorporates the complete management cycle consisting of the phases prevention, protection and preparedness. In theory it is a well described concept. In the stage of implementation, however, there is often a lack of support although a consistent policy framework exists. Consequently, the degree of implementation must be rated as inadequate in many cases. In particular this refers to the elements which focus on preparedness and prevention. The study to which this paper refers emphasises the means and potentials of scenario technique to foster the implementation of potentially appropriate measures and new societal arrangements when applied in the framework of integrated flood risk management. A literature review is carried out to reveal the state-of-the-art and the specific problem framework within which scenario technique is generally being applied. Subsequently, it is demonstrated that scenario technique is transferable to a policy making process in flood risk management that is integrated, sustainable and interactive. The study concludes with a recommendation for three applications in which the implementation of measures of flood damage prevention and preparedness is supported by scenario technique.

scholarly journals The added value of system robustness analysis for flood risk management illustrated by a case on the IJssel River

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. J. P. Mens ◽  
F. Klijn
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Robustness Analysis ◽  
Decision Criterion ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Common Basis ◽  
System Robustness ◽  
System Configurations

Abstract. Decision makers in fluvial flood risk management increasingly acknowledge that they have to prepare for extreme events. Flood risk is the most common basis on which to compare flood risk-reducing strategies. To take uncertainties into account the criteria of robustness and flexibility are advocated as well. This paper discusses the added value of robustness as an additional decision criterion compared to single-value flood risk only. We do so by quantifying flood risk and system robustness for alternative system configurations of the IJssel River valley in the Netherlands. We found that robustness analysis has added value in three respects: (1) it does not require assumptions on current and future flood probabilities, since flood consequences are shown as a function of discharge; (2) it shows the sensitivity of the system to varying discharges; and (3) it supports a discussion on the acceptability of flood damage. We conclude that robustness analysis is a valuable addition to flood risk analysis in support of long-term decision-making on flood risk management.

scholarly journals Raising risk preparedness by flood risk communication

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 1577-1595 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Maidl ◽  
M. Buchecker
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Communication Strategy ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Risk Awareness ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
Risk Preparedness

Abstract. During the last decade, most European countries have produced hazard maps of natural hazards, but little is known about how to communicate these maps most efficiently to the public. In October 2011, Zurich's local authorities informed owners of buildings located in the urban flood hazard zone about potential flood damage, the probability of flood events and protection measures. The campaign was based on the assumptions that informing citizens increases their risk awareness and that citizens who are aware of risks are more likely to undertake actions to protect themselves and their property. This study is intended as a contribution to better understand the factors that influence flood risk preparedness, with a special focus on the effects of such a one-way risk communication strategy. We conducted a standardized mail survey of 1500 property owners in the hazard zones in Zurich (response rate main survey: 34 %). The questionnaire included items to measure respondents' risk awareness, risk preparedness, flood experience, information-seeking behaviour, knowledge about flood risk, evaluation of the information material, risk acceptance, attachment to the property and trust in local authorities. Data about the type of property and socio-demographic variables were also collected. Multivariate data analysis revealed that the average level of risk awareness and preparedness was low, but the results confirmed that the campaign had a statistically significant effect on the level of preparedness. The main influencing factors on the intention to prepare for a flood were the extent to which respondents evaluated the information material positively as well as their risk awareness. Respondents who had never taken any previous interest in floods were less likely to read the material. For future campaigns, we therefore recommend repeated communication that is tailored to the information needs of the target population.

scholarly journals Large-scale application of the flood damage model RAilway Infrastructure Loss (RAIL)

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. 2357-2371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patric Kellermann ◽  
Christine Schönberger ◽  
Annegret H. Thieken
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Structural Damage ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Damage Model ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Railway Infrastructure ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Experience has shown that river floods can significantly hamper the reliability of railway networks and cause extensive structural damage and disruption. As a result, the national railway operator in Austria had to cope with financial losses of more than EUR 100 million due to flooding in recent years. Comprehensive information on potential flood risk hot spots as well as on expected flood damage in Austria is therefore needed for strategic flood risk management. In view of this, the flood damage model RAIL (RAilway Infrastructure Loss) was applied to estimate (1) the expected structural flood damage and (2) the resulting repair costs of railway infrastructure due to a 30-, 100- and 300-year flood in the Austrian Mur River catchment. The results were then used to calculate the expected annual damage of the railway subnetwork and subsequently analysed in terms of their sensitivity to key model assumptions. Additionally, the impact of risk aversion on the estimates was investigated, and the overall results were briefly discussed against the background of climate change and possibly resulting changes in flood risk. The findings indicate that the RAIL model is capable of supporting decision-making in risk management by providing comprehensive risk information on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that an increased risk aversion of the railway operator has a marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies.

Novel use of climate model data for deriving future flood risk underwriting and risk selection data – A Hong Kong Case Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Alexandre ◽  
Iain Willis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hong Kong ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Commercial Building ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Change Factors

<p>The re/insurance, banking and mortgage sectors play an essential role in facilitating economic stability. As climate change-related financial risks increase, there has long been a need for tools that contribute to the global industry’s current and future flood risk resiliency. Recognising this gap, JBA Risk Management has pioneered use of climate model data for rapidly deriving future flood risk metrics to support risk-reflective pricing strategies and mortgage analysis for Hong Kong.</p><p>JBA’s established method uses daily temporal resolution precipitation and surface air temperature Regional Climate Model (RCM) data from the Earth System Grid Federation’s CORDEX experiment. Historical and future period RCM data were processed for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.6, and time horizons 2046-2050 and 2070-2080 and used to develop fluvial and pluvial hydrological model change factors for Hong Kong. These change factors were applied to baseline fluvial and pluvial flood depths and extents, extracted from JBA’s high resolution 30m Hong Kong Flood Map. From these, potential changes in flood event frequency and severity for each RCP and time horizon combination were estimated.</p><p>The unique flood frequency and severity profiles for each flood type were then analysed with customised vulnerability functions, linking water depth to expected damage over time for residential and commercial building risks. This resulted in quantitative fluvial and pluvial flood risk metrics for Hong Kong.</p><p>Newly released, Hong Kong Climate Change Pricing Data is already in use by financial institutions. When combined with property total sum insured data, this dataset provides the annualised cost of flood damage for a range of future climate scenarios. For the first time, our industry has a tool to quantify baseline and future flood risk and set risk-reflective pricing for Hong Kong portfolios.</p><p>JBA’s method is adaptable for global use and underwriting tools are already available for the UK and Australia with the aim of improving future financial flood risk mitigation and management. This presentation will outline the method, provide a comparison of baseline and climate change flood impacts for Hong Kong and discuss the wider implications for our scientific and financial industries.</p>

scholarly journals Uncertainties in Coastal Flood Risk Assessments in Small Island Developing States

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo U. Parodi ◽  
Alessio Giardino ◽  
Ap van Dongeren ◽  
Stuart G. Pearson ◽  
Jeremy D. Bricker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Small Island Developing States ◽  
Damage Functions ◽  
Current Time ◽  
Coastal Flood ◽  
Coastal Flood Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Considering the likely increase of coastal flooding in Small Island Developing States (SIDS), coastal managers at the local and global level have been developing initiatives aimed at implementing Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures and adapting to climate change. Developing science-based adaptation policies requires accurate coastal flood risk (CFR) assessments, which are often subject to the scarcity of sufficiently accurate input data for insular states. We analysed the impact of uncertain inputs on coastal flood damage estimates, considering: (i) significant wave height, (ii) storm surge level and (iii) sea level rise (SLR) contributions to extreme sea levels, as well as the error-driven uncertainty in (iv) bathymetric and (v) topographic datasets, (vi) damage models and (vii) socioeconomic changes. The methodology was tested through a sensitivity analysis using an ensemble of hydrodynamic models (XBeach and SFINCS) coupled with an impact model (Delft-FIAT) for a case study at the islands of São Tomé and Príncipe. Model results indicate that for the current time horizon, depth damage functions (DDF) and digital elevation model (DEM) dominate the overall damage estimation uncertainty. We find that, when introducing climate and socioeconomic uncertainties to the analysis, SLR projections become the most relevant input for the year 2100 (followed by DEM and DDF). In general, the scarcity of reliable input data leads to considerable predictive error in CFR assessments in SIDS. The findings of this research can help to prioritise the allocation of limited resources towards the acquisitions of the most relevant input data for reliable impact estimation.

scholarly journals Assessment of Flood Hazard and Agriculture Damage Under Climate Change in the Bagmati River Basin of Nepal

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 55-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Badri Bhakta Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Damage Assessment ◽  
Growth Stage ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Damage ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Flood Inundation ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Bagmati River

Assessment of flood hazard and damage is a prerequisite for flood risk management in the river basins. The mitigation plans for flood risk management are mostly evaluated in quantified terms as it is important in decision making process. Therefore, analysis of flood hazards and quantitative assessment of potential flood damage is very essential for mitigating and managing flood risk. This study focused on assessment of flood hazard and quantitative agricultural damage in the Bagmati River basin including Lal Bakaiya River basin of Nepal under climate change conditions. Flood hazards were simulated using Rainfall Runoff Inundation (RRI) model. MRI-AGCM3.2S precipitation outputs of present and future climate scenarios were used to simulate flood hazards, flood inundation depth, and duration. Flood damage was assessed in the agricultural sector, focusing on flood damage to rice crops. The flood damage assessment was conducted by defining flood damage to rice crops as a function of flood depth, duration, and growth stage of rice plants and using depth-duration-damage function curves for each growth stage of rice plants. The hazard simulation and damage assessment were conducted for 50- and 100-year return period cases. The results show that flood inundation area and agricultural damage area may increase in the future by 41.09 % and 39.05 % in the case of 50-year flood, while 44.98 % and 40.76 % in the case of 100-year flood. The sensitivity to changes in flood extent area and damage with the intensity of return period was also analyzed.

scholarly journals How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3181-3195 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Ward ◽  
H. de Moel ◽  
J. C. J. H. Aerts
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Damage Model ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Inundation Maps ◽  
Risk Estimates ◽  
Risk Curve ◽  
Inundation Extent

Abstract. Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D–3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

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