Predictability of Mortality in Patients with Myocardial Injury after Noncardiac Surgery Based on Perioperative factors via Machine Learning (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seo Jeong Shin ◽  
Jungchan Park ◽  
Seung-Hwa Lee ◽  
Kwangmo Yang ◽  
Rae Woong Park
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Clinical Data ◽  
Myocardial Injury ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Postoperative Mortality ◽  
Noncardiac Surgery ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND Myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (MINS) is associated with increased postoperative mortality, but the relevant perioperative factors that contribute to the mortality of patients with MINS have not been fully evaluated. OBJECTIVE To establish a comprehensive body of knowledge relating to patients with MINS, we researched the best performing predictive model based on machine learning algorithms. METHODS Using clinical data for 7,629 patients with MINS from the Clinical Data Warehouse, we evaluated eight machine learning algorithms for accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, AUROC (area under the receiver operating characteristic) curve, and area under the precision-recall curve to investigate the best model for predicting mortality. Feature importance and SHapley Additive exPlanations value were analyzed to explain the role of each clinical factor in patients with MINS. RESULTS Extreme gradient boosting outperformed the other models. The model showed AUROC of 0.923 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.916–0.930). The AUROC of the model was not decreased in the test dataset (0.894, 95% CI: 0.86–0.922) (P =.06). Antiplatelet drugs prescription, elevated C-reactive protein level, and beta blocker prescription were associated with reduced 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS Predicting mortality of patients with MINS was shown to be feasible using machine learning. By analyzing the impact of predictors, markers that should be cautiously monitored by clinicians may be identified.

scholarly journals Predictability of Mortality in Patients With Myocardial Injury After Noncardiac Surgery Based on Perioperative Factors via Machine Learning: Retrospective Study

10.2196/32771 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. e32771
Author(s):  
Seo Jeong Shin ◽  
Jungchan Park ◽  
Seung-Hwa Lee ◽  
Kwangmo Yang ◽  
Rae Woong Park
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Clinical Data ◽  
Myocardial Injury ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Noncardiac Surgery ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
The Impact

Background Myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (MINS) is associated with increased postoperative mortality, but the relevant perioperative factors that contribute to the mortality of patients with MINS have not been fully evaluated. Objective To establish a comprehensive body of knowledge relating to patients with MINS, we researched the best performing predictive model based on machine learning algorithms. Methods Using clinical data from 7629 patients with MINS from the clinical data warehouse, we evaluated 8 machine learning algorithms for accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, and area under the precision-recall curve to investigate the best model for predicting mortality. Feature importance and Shapley Additive Explanations values were analyzed to explain the role of each clinical factor in patients with MINS. Results Extreme gradient boosting outperformed the other models. The model showed an AUROC of 0.923 (95% CI 0.916-0.930). The AUROC of the model did not decrease in the test data set (0.894, 95% CI 0.86-0.922; P=.06). Antiplatelet drugs prescription, elevated C-reactive protein level, and beta blocker prescription were associated with reduced 30-day mortality. Conclusions Predicting the mortality of patients with MINS was shown to be feasible using machine learning. By analyzing the impact of predictors, markers that should be cautiously monitored by clinicians may be identified.

scholarly journals On the Application of Advanced Machine Learning Methods to Analyze Enhanced, Multimodal Data from Persons Infected with COVID-19

Computation ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 4
Author(s):  
Wenhuan Zeng ◽  
Anupam Gautam ◽  
Daniel H. Huson
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Language Processing ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Sequence Data ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
The Impact

The current COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the rapid worldwide spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, is having severe consequences for human health and the world economy. The virus affects different individuals differently, with many infected patients showing only mild symptoms, and others showing critical illness. To lessen the impact of the epidemic, one problem is to determine which factors play an important role in a patient’s progression of the disease. Here, we construct an enhanced COVID-19 structured dataset from more than one source, using natural language processing to add local weather conditions and country-specific research sentiment. The enhanced structured dataset contains 301,363 samples and 43 features, and we applied both machine learning algorithms and deep learning algorithms on it so as to forecast patient’s survival probability. In addition, we import alignment sequence data to improve the performance of the model. Application of Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) on the enhanced structured dataset achieves 97% accuracy in predicting patient’s survival; with climatic factors, and then age, showing the most importance. Similarly, the application of a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) achieves 98% accuracy. This work suggests that enhancing the available data, mostly basic information on patients, so as to include additional, potentially important features, such as weather conditions, is useful. The explored models suggest that textual weather descriptions can improve outcome forecast.

scholarly journals Comparative Analysis of Two Machine Learning Algorithms in Predicting Site-Level Net Ecosystem Exchange in Major Biomes

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2242
Author(s):  
Jianzhao Liu ◽  
Yunjiang Zuo ◽  
Nannan Wang ◽  
Fenghui Yuan ◽  
Xinhao Zhu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Ecological Data ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
The Impact

The net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) is a critical parameter for quantifying terrestrial ecosystems and their contributions to the ongoing climate change. The accumulation of ecological data is calling for more advanced quantitative approaches for assisting NEE prediction. In this study, we applied two widely used machine learning algorithms, Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), to build models for simulating NEE in major biomes based on the FLUXNET dataset. Both models accurately predicted NEE in all biomes, while XGBoost had higher computational efficiency (6~62 times faster than RF). Among environmental variables, net solar radiation, soil water content, and soil temperature are the most important variables, while precipitation and wind speed are less important variables in simulating temporal variations of site-level NEE as shown by both models. Both models perform consistently well for extreme climate conditions. Extreme heat and dryness led to much worse model performance in grassland (extreme heat: R2 = 0.66~0.71, normal: R2 = 0.78~0.81; extreme dryness: R2 = 0.14~0.30, normal: R2 = 0.54~0.55), but the impact on forest is less (extreme heat: R2 = 0.50~0.78, normal: R2 = 0.59~0.87; extreme dryness: R2 = 0.86~0.90, normal: R2 = 0.81~0.85). Extreme wet condition did not change model performance in forest ecosystems (with R2 changing −0.03~0.03 compared with normal) but led to substantial reduction in model performance in cropland (with R2 decreasing 0.20~0.27 compared with normal). Extreme cold condition did not lead to much changes in model performance in forest and woody savannas (with R2 decreasing 0.01~0.08 and 0.09 compared with normal, respectively). Our study showed that both models need training samples at daily timesteps of >2.5 years to reach a good model performance and >5.4 years of daily samples to reach an optimal model performance. In summary, both RF and XGBoost are applicable machine learning algorithms for predicting ecosystem NEE, and XGBoost algorithm is more feasible than RF in terms of accuracy and efficiency.

Forecasting US movies box office performances in Turkey using machine learning algorithms

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
pp. 6579-6590
Author(s):  
Sandy Çağlıyor ◽  
Başar Öztayşi ◽  
Selime Sezgin
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Box Office ◽  
Industry Forecast ◽  
The Impact

The motion picture industry is one of the largest industries worldwide and has significant importance in the global economy. Considering the high stakes and high risks in the industry, forecast models and decision support systems are gaining importance. Several attempts have been made to estimate the theatrical performance of a movie before or at the early stages of its release. Nevertheless, these models are mostly used for predicting domestic performances and the industry still struggles to predict box office performances in overseas markets. In this study, the aim is to design a forecast model using different machine learning algorithms to estimate the theatrical success of US movies in Turkey. From various sources, a dataset of 1559 movies is constructed. Firstly, independent variables are grouped as pre-release, distributor type, and international distribution based on their characteristic. The number of attendances is discretized into three classes. Four popular machine learning algorithms, artificial neural networks, decision tree regression and gradient boosting tree and random forest are employed, and the impact of each group is observed by compared by the performance models. Then the number of target classes is increased into five and eight and results are compared with the previously developed models in the literature.

scholarly journals Techniques for Detecting Malware Traffic: A Comprehensive Approach to Feature Selection and Classification

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Harsha A K
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Feature Selection ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Malware Detection ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Abstract: Since the advent of encryption, there has been a steady increase in malware being transmitted over encrypted networks. Traditional approaches to detect malware like packet content analysis are inefficient in dealing with encrypted data. In the absence of actual packet contents, we can make use of other features like packet size, arrival time, source and destination addresses and other such metadata to detect malware. Such information can be used to train machine learning classifiers in order to classify malicious and benign packets. In this paper, we offer an efficient malware detection approach using classification algorithms in machine learning such as support vector machine, random forest and extreme gradient boosting. We employ an extensive feature selection process to reduce the dimensionality of the chosen dataset. The dataset is then split into training and testing sets. Machine learning algorithms are trained using the training set. These models are then evaluated against the testing set in order to assess their respective performances. We further attempt to tune the hyper parameters of the algorithms, in order to achieve better results. Random forest and extreme gradient boosting algorithms performed exceptionally well in our experiments, resulting in area under the curve values of 0.9928 and 0.9998 respectively. Our work demonstrates that malware traffic can be effectively classified using conventional machine learning algorithms and also shows the importance of dimensionality reduction in such classification problems. Keywords: Malware Detection, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, Feature Selection.

Machine learning algorithms for predicting undernutrition among under-five children in Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Fikrewold H. Bitew ◽  
Corey S. Sparks ◽  
Samuel H. Nyarko
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Water Source ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Prediction Ability ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Abstract Objective: Child undernutrition is a global public health problem with serious implications. In this study, estimate predictive algorithms for the determinants of childhood stunting by using various machine learning (ML) algorithms. Design: This study draws on data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey of 2016. Five machine learning algorithms including eXtreme gradient boosting (xgbTree), k-nearest neighbors (K-NN), random forest (RF), neural network (NNet), and the generalized linear models (GLM) were considered to predict the socio-demographic risk factors for undernutrition in Ethiopia. Setting: Households in Ethiopia. Participants: A total of 9,471 children below five years of age. Results: The descriptive results show substantial regional variations in child stunting, wasting, and underweight in Ethiopia. Also, among the five ML algorithms, xgbTree algorithm shows a better prediction ability than the generalized linear mixed algorithm. The best predicting algorithm (xgbTree) shows diverse important predictors of undernutrition across the three outcomes which include time to water source, anemia history, child age greater than 30 months, small birth size, and maternal underweight, among others. Conclusions: The xgbTree algorithm was a reasonably superior ML algorithm for predicting childhood undernutrition in Ethiopia compared to other ML algorithms considered in this study. The findings support improvement in access to water supply, food security, and fertility regulation among others in the quest to considerably improve childhood nutrition in Ethiopia.

scholarly journals Evaluating Variable Selection and Machine Learning Algorithms for Estimating Forest Heights by Combining Lidar and Hyperspectral Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 507
Author(s):  
Sanjiwana Arjasakusuma ◽  
Sandiaga Swahyu Kusuma ◽  
Stuart Phinn
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Feature Selection ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Hyperspectral Data ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forest Height ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Machine learning has been employed for various mapping and modeling tasks using input variables from different sources of remote sensing data. For feature selection involving high- spatial and spectral dimensionality data, various methods have been developed and incorporated into the machine learning framework to ensure an efficient and optimal computational process. This research aims to assess the accuracy of various feature selection and machine learning methods for estimating forest height using AISA (airborne imaging spectrometer for applications) hyperspectral bands (479 bands) and airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) height metrics (36 metrics), alone and combined. Feature selection and dimensionality reduction using Boruta (BO), principal component analysis (PCA), simulated annealing (SA), and genetic algorithm (GA) in combination with machine learning algorithms such as multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), extra trees (ET), support vector regression (SVR) with radial basis function, and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) with trees (XGbtree and XGBdart) and linear (XGBlin) classifiers were evaluated. The results demonstrated that the combinations of BO-XGBdart and BO-SVR delivered the best model performance for estimating tropical forest height by combining lidar and hyperspectral data, with R2 = 0.53 and RMSE = 1.7 m (18.4% of nRMSE and 0.046 m of bias) for BO-XGBdart and R2 = 0.51 and RMSE = 1.8 m (15.8% of nRMSE and −0.244 m of bias) for BO-SVR. Our study also demonstrated the effectiveness of BO for variables selection; it could reduce 95% of the data to select the 29 most important variables from the initial 516 variables from lidar metrics and hyperspectral data.

scholarly journals Systematic Evaluation of Machine Learning Algorithms for Neuroanatomically-Based Age Prediction in Youth

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mandana Modabbernia ◽  
Heather C Whalley ◽  
David Glahn ◽  
Paul M. Thompson ◽  
Rene S. Kahn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Computational Efficiency ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Age Related ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Brain Age

Application of machine learning algorithms to structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) data has yielded behaviorally meaningful estimates of the biological age of the brain (brain-age). The choice of the machine learning approach in estimating brain-age in children and adolescents is important because age-related brain changes in these age-groups are dynamic. However, the comparative performance of the multiple machine learning algorithms available has not been systematically appraised. To address this gap, the present study evaluated the accuracy (Mean Absolute Error; MAE) and computational efficiency of 21 machine learning algorithms using sMRI data from 2,105 typically developing individuals aged 5 to 22 years from five cohorts. The trained models were then tested in an independent holdout datasets, comprising 4,078 pre-adolescents (aged 9-10 years). The algorithms encompassed parametric and nonparametric, Bayesian, linear and nonlinear, tree-based, and kernel-based models. Sensitivity analyses were performed for parcellation scheme, number of neuroimaging input features, number of cross-validation folds, and sample size. The best performing algorithms were Extreme Gradient Boosting (MAE of 1.25 years for females and 1.57 years for males), Random Forest Regression (MAE of 1.23 years for females and 1.65 years for males) and Support Vector Regression with Radial Basis Function Kernel (MAE of 1.47 years for females and 1.72 years for males) which had acceptable and comparable computational efficiency. Findings of the present study could be used as a guide for optimizing methodology when quantifying age-related changes during development.

scholarly journals Prediction of groundwater quality indices using machine learning algorithms

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hemant Raheja ◽  
Arun Goel ◽  
Mahesh Pal
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Water Quality Index ◽  
Quality Index ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Quality Indices ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Analysis Of Results

Abstract The present paper deals with performance evaluation of application of three machine learning algorithms such as Deep neural network (DNN), Gradient boosting machine (GBM) and Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to evaluate the ground water indices over a study area of Haryana state (India). To investigate the applicability of these models, two water quality indices namely Entropy Water Quality Index (EWQI) and Water Quality Index (WQI) are employed in the present study. Analysis of results demonstrated that DNN has exhibited comparatively lower error values and it performed better in the prediction of both indices i.e. EWQI and WQI. The values of Correlation Coefficient (CC = 0.989), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE = 0.037), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE = 0.995), Index of agreement (d = 0.999) for EWQI and CC = 0.975, RMSE = 0.055, NSE = 0.991, d = 0.998 for WQI have been obtained. From variable importance of input parameters, the Electrical conductivity (EC) was observed to be most significant and ‘pH’ was least significant parameter in predictions of EWQI and WQI using these three models. It is envisaged that the results of study can be used to righteously predict EWQI and WQI of groundwater to decide its potability.

scholarly journals Bionic Electronic Nose Based on MOS Sensors Array and Machine Learning Algorithms Used for Wine Properties Detection

Sensors ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huixiang Liu ◽  
Qing Li ◽  
Bin Yan ◽  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Yu Gu
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Electronic Nose ◽  
Optimal Algorithm ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Oxide Semiconductor ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Fermentation Processes ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

In this study, a portable electronic nose (E-nose) prototype is developed using metal oxide semiconductor (MOS) sensors to detect odors of different wines. Odor detection facilitates the distinction of wines with different properties, including areas of production, vintage years, fermentation processes, and varietals. Four popular machine learning algorithms—extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and backpropagation neural network (BPNN)—were used to build identification models for different classification tasks. Experimental results show that BPNN achieved the best performance, with accuracies of 94% and 92.5% in identifying production areas and varietals, respectively; and SVM achieved the best performance in identifying vintages and fermentation processes, with accuracies of 67.3% and 60.5%, respectively. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed E-nose, which could be used to distinguish different wines based on their properties following selection of an optimal algorithm.

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