Canada SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance System: Longitudinal Trend Analysis (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lori Post ◽  
Michael J Boctor ◽  
Tariq Z Issa ◽  
Charles B Moss ◽  
Robert Leo Murphy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Dynamic Panel Model ◽  
Longitudinal Trend ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Positive Acceleration ◽  
National Leaders ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

BACKGROUND The COVID-19 global pandemic has disrupted structures and communities across the globe. Numerous regions of the world have had varying responses in their attempts to contain the spread of the virus. Varying factors such as public health policies, governance, and sociopolitical factors, have led to differential levels of success at controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Ultimately, a more advanced surveillance metric for COVID-19 transmission is necessary to help government systems and national leaders understand which responses have been effective and gauge where outbreaks occur. OBJECTIVE The goal of this study is to provide advanced Canadian surveillance metrics at the Province level for COVID-19 transmission that account for shifts in the pandemic, week over week, speed, acceleration, jerk and persistence, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and those who are managing the pandemic successfully. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed and provides novel metrics to measure the transmission of disease. METHODS Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 52 days of COVID data from public health registries for 14 Provinces and Territories. We use an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in Canada as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS We compare the week of October 11-17 with the week of October 18-24. Canada, as a whole, had an increase in 7-day average COVID-19 cases from 1965 per 100,000 population during October 11-17 to 2043 per 100,000 population during October 18-24. Evaluating Canada’s COVID-19 at the subnational level is necessary to identify where the novel coronavirus is transmitting to prevent future outbreaks. Alberta, BC, Ontario and Manitoba had positive acceleration of cases for October 11-17 at 2.21, 1.23, .97, and .71 respectively per 100,000 population, however, these same provinces experienced deceleration one week later at -2.06, -1.06, -.71, and -.16.; Moreover, the positive jerk experienced during October 11-17 at 2.18, 1.19, 2.15 and 1.57 reversed course and jerked downward during October 18 to 24 at -4.96, -2.44, -1.39, and -.19 respectively. CONCLUSIONS While Canada maintained good COVID-19 control policies that resulted in fewer transmissions, the first week of this study on October 11-17 resulted in increases in new cases, increased rates of infections, increased acceleration and jerk in infections for the most populated provinces. These same provinces reversed course whereby the number of new cases decreased, the speed of new infections decelerated, and experienced a negative jerk in COVID-19 per 100,000 population during the week of October 12-24. The surge followed by a significant decrease is consistent with Canadians celebrating Thanksgiving on October 12, 2020. While no Province or Territory has exceeded 1000 cases per day, new sources of COVID-19 expected from the pending Wave 2 of COVID-19 transmissions could result in novel outbreaks. It is not time for Canada to declare victory over COVID-19 transmissions or to be complacent just because there were decreases this past week. To that end, Canada must remain vigilant and continue implementing those policies that caused the Canadian outbreak to reverse course and decrease. CLINICALTRIAL NA

scholarly journals Surveillance Metrics of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Central Asia: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

10.2196/25799 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. e25799
Author(s):  
Lori Ann Post ◽  
Elana T Benishay ◽  
Charles B Moss ◽  
Robert Leo Murphy ◽  
Chad J Achenbach ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Dynamic Panel Model ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Longitudinal Trend ◽  
Positive Acceleration

Background SARS-CoV-2, the virus that caused the global COVID-19 pandemic, has severely impacted Central Asia; in spring 2020, high numbers of cases and deaths were reported in this region. The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is currently breaching the borders of Central Asia. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders; however, existing surveillance explains past transmissions while obscuring shifts in the pandemic, increases in infection rates, and the persistence of the transmission of COVID-19. Objective The goal of this study is to provide enhanced surveillance metrics for SARS-CoV-2 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic, including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand the risk of explosive growth in each country and which countries are managing the pandemic successfully. Methods Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 60 days of COVID-19–related data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the Central Asia region as a function of the prior number of cases, level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. Results COVID-19 transmission rates were tracked for the weeks of September 30 to October 6 and October 7-13, 2020, in Central Asia. The region averaged 11,730 new cases per day for the first week and 14,514 for the second week. Infection rates increased across the region from 4.74 per 100,000 persons to 5.66. Russia and Turkey had the highest 7-day moving averages in the region, with 9836 and 1469, respectively, for the week of October 6 and 12,501 and 1603, respectively, for the week of October 13. Russia has the fourth highest speed in the region and continues to have positive acceleration, driving the negative trend for the entire region as the largest country by population. Armenia is experiencing explosive growth of COVID-19; its infection rate of 13.73 for the week of October 6 quickly jumped to 25.19, the highest in the region, the following week. The region overall is experiencing increases in its 7-day moving average of new cases, infection, rate, and speed, with continued positive acceleration and no sign of a reversal in sight. Conclusions The rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic requires novel dynamic surveillance metrics in addition to static metrics to effectively analyze the pandemic trajectory and control spread. Policy makers need to know the magnitude of transmission rates, how quickly they are accelerating, and how previous cases are impacting current caseload due to a lag effect. These metrics applied to Central Asia suggest that the region is trending negatively, primarily due to minimal restrictions in Russia.

scholarly journals Middle East and North Africa SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance: A Longitudinal Trend Analysis (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lori Post ◽  
Emily Marogi ◽  
Charles B Moss ◽  
Robert Leo Murphy ◽  
Michael G Ison ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Public Health Surveillance ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Health Surveillance ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Longitudinal Trend

BACKGROUND The COVID-19 global pandemic has disrupted the lives of millions and forced countries to devise public health policies to reduce the pace of transmission. In the Middle East and North Africa, falling oil prices, disparities in wealth and public health infrastructure, and large refugee populations have significantly increased the COVID-19 disease burden. In light of these exacerbating factors, public health surveillance is particularly necessary to help leaders understand and implement effective disease control policies to reduce Sars-CoV-2 persistence and transmission. OBJECTIVE The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics, in combination with traditional surveillance, for COVID-19 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic speed, acceleration, jerk and persistence, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and to better inform those who are managing the pandemic. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed. METHODS Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 30 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We use an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the Middle East and North Africa as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel data model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS The regression Wald statistic is significant (χ^2 (5)=859.5, P<.001). The Sargan test is not significant, failing to reject the validity of over identifying restrictions (χ^2 (294)= 16 P=.99). Countries with the highest cumulative caseload of the novel coronavirus include Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel with 530,380, 426,634, 342,202, and 303,109 cases respectively. Many of the smaller countries in MENA have higher infection rates than those countries with the highest caseloads. Oman has 33.3 new infections per 100,000 population while Bahrain has 12.1, Libya has 14, and Lebanon has 14.6. In order of most to least number of cumulative deaths since January 2020, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have 30,375, 10,254, 6,120, and 5,185 respectively. Israel, Bahrain, Lebanon, and Oman had the highest rates of COVID-19 persistence which are the number of new infections statistically related to new infections 7 days ago. Bahrain had positive speed, acceleration and jerk signaling the potential for explosive growth. CONCLUSIONS Static and dynamic public health surveillance metrics provide a more complete picture of pandemic progression across countries in MENA. Static measures capture data at a given point in time such as infection rates and death rates. By including speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence, public health officials may design policy with an eye to the future. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel all demonstrated the highest rate of infections, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence rates prompting public health leaders to increase prevention efforts. CLINICALTRIAL

scholarly journals Central Asia SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance: A Longitudinal Trend Analysis (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lori Ann Post ◽  
Elana T Benishay ◽  
Charles B Moss ◽  
Robert Leo Murphy ◽  
Chad J Achenbach ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Policy ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Population Characteristics ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Longitudinal Trend ◽  
Positive Acceleration

BACKGROUND SARS-CoV-2, the virus that caused the COVID-19 global pandemic, has severely impacted Central Asia, resulting in a high caseload and deaths that varied by country in Spring 2020. The varying severity of the pandemic is explained by differences in prevention efforts in the form of public health policy, adherence to those guidelines, as well as socio-cultural, climate, and population characteristics. The second wave of the COVID-19 currently is breaching the borders of Europe. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders; however, existing surveillance explains past transmissions obscuring shifts in the pandemic, increases in infection rates, and the persistence in the transmission of COVID-19. OBJECTIVE The goal of this study is to provide enhanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for shifts in the pandemic, week over week, speed, acceleration, jerk and persistence, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and those who are managing the pandemic successfully. Existing surveillance, coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission, will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed and provides novel metrics to measure the transmission of disease. METHODS Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 60 days of COVID data from public health registries. We use an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the Central Asia region as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS COVID-19 transmission rates were tracked for the weeks of 9/30-10/06 and 10/07 to 10/13 in Central Asia. The region averaged 11,730 new cases per day for the week ending in 10/06 and 14,514 for the week ending in 10/13. Infection rates increased across the region from 4.74 per 100,000 in the population to 5.66. Infection rates varied by country. Russia and Turkey had the highest seven-day moving averages in the region, at 9,836 and 1,469 respectively for the week of 10/06 and 12,501 and 1,603 respectively for the week of 10/13. Russia has the fourth highest speed in the region and continues to have positive acceleration, driving the negative trend for the entire region as the largest country by population. Armenia is experiencing explosive growth of COVID-19, with an infection rate of 13.73 for the week of 10/06 quickly jumping to 25.19, the highest in the region, the following week. The pandemic speed in Armenia, consistent with the infection rate trajectory, increased from 15.4 to 21.7, with an acceleration increase from 0.4 to 1.6 meaning acceleration has increased fourfold. The region overall is experiencing increases in seven-day moving average of new cases, infection, rate and speed, with continued positive acceleration and no sign of a reversal in sight. CONCLUSIONS The rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic requires novel dynamic surveillance metrics in addition to static metrics to effectively analyze pandemic trajectory and control spread. Policymakers need to know the magnitude of transmission rates, how quickly they are accelerating, and how previous cases are impacting current caseload due to a lag effect. These metrics applied to Central Asia suggest that the region is trending negatively, primarily due to minimal restrictions in Russia. Russia already has the fourth highest number of cases in the world and current metrics suggest Russia will continue on that trajectory. CLINICALTRIAL NA

scholarly journals Latin America and the Caribbean SARS-Cov-2 Surveillance: Longitudinal Trend Analysis (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lori Post ◽  
Ramael O Ohiomoba ◽  
Ashley Maras ◽  
Sean J Watts ◽  
Charles B Moss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
The Bahamas ◽  
Longitudinal Trend ◽  
Positive Acceleration ◽  
The Caribbean

BACKGROUND SARS-CoV-19, the virus that causes COVID-19, is a global pandemic that has placed unprecedented stress on national economies, food systems and healthcare resources in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). This region has become an epicenter for the coronavirus, with Brazil and Mexico leading the globe in deaths following the U.S. in death count. Existing surveillance provides a proxy on COVID-19 caseload and deaths; however, these measures make it difficult to identify shifts to the pandemic and changes in the speed and acceleration in COVID-19. Accordingly, we provide an enhanced surveillance system to complement static metrics with dynamic ones that inform hen there are shifts and where explosive growth is likely to occur in LAC. OBJECTIVE This study aims to provide additional surveillance metrics for SARS-Cov-2 transmission that more accurately tracks shifts in the pandemic, speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence in transmission than existing metrics. Enhanced surveillance will inform policy and COVID-19 outbreaks for leaders in LAC. METHODS Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 45 days of COVID data from public health registries. We use an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the Latin America and Caribbean region as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS COVID transmission rates were tracked for Latin America and the Caribbean during the weeks of 9/30-10/06 and 10/07-10/13. New cases in the region totaled 79,053 on 10/06 and 42,837 on 10/13. The 7-day moving average of new cases for the week of 10/6 was 56,106 and for the week of 10/13 was 47,276. Total infection rate decreased from 12.42 to 6.73 accompanied by a death rate decrease from 0.33 to 0.24. Within the region, on 9/30, Brazil had the largest number of new cases at 41,906 followed by Argentina at 14,740, Colombia at 7,650, and Mexico at 4,828. On 10/07, Argentina had the largest number of new cases in the region at 13,305, followed by Brazil at 10,220, Colombia at 5,014, and Mexico at 4,295. For both weeks, Brazil had the highest 7-day moving average, followed by Argentina. The region as a whole saw a decrease in speed, acceleration, and jerk for the week of 10/13 compared to the week of 10/6, accompanied by a decrease in new cases and 7-day moving average. For the week of 10/6, Belize had the highest acceleration and jerk in the region, at 1.7 and 1.8 respectively, which is particularly concerning given the high death rate in the country. The Bahamas also had a high acceleration at 1.5. 11 countries had a positive acceleration during the week of 10/6 whereas only six countries had a positive acceleration for the week of 10/13. The region overall is trending positively, with a speed of 10.40, an acceleration of 0.27, and a jerk of -0.31 all decreasing the subsequent week to 9.04, -0.81 and -0.03 respectively. CONCLUSIONS 1) Metrics such as new cases, cumulative cases, deaths, and 7-day moving averages provide a static view of the pandemic but fail to identify where and the speed at which SARS-CoV-19 is infecting new persons, the rate at which the speed is accelerating or decelerating and comparing this week to last week, how the rate of acceleration is increasing or decreasing indicate pending explosive growth or control of the pandemic; and 2) Although Latin America and the Caribbean saw an overall decrease in speed, acceleration, and jerk for the week of 10/13 compared to the week of 10/6, accompanied by a decrease in new cases and 7-day moving average, this is largely due to decreases in infections in Brazil and Mexico, the two countries containing over 50% of the population in the region. However, Brazil continues to have the highest 7-day moving average in the region, more than two times that of Argentina, the next highest in the region. CLINICALTRIAL NA

scholarly journals Roots, Rights and Risk: Canada, Childhood and the COVID-19 Global Pandemic.

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-33
Author(s):  
Sarah Ciotti ◽  
Shannon Moore ◽  
Maureen Connolly ◽  
Trent Newmeyer
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Qualitative Research Study ◽  
Rights Of The Child ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Constructions Of Childhood ◽  
Media Reports ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 global pandemic highlights pre-existing inequities as well as the challenge of ensuring the protection of children’s human rights in countries like Canada that have ratified the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child. SARS-CoV-2, referred to as the 2019 novel Coronavirus disease or COVID-19, presents a significant threat to public health. Although children are considered to be low risk of contracting, spreading, and serious complications of the disease, are considerably impacted by COVID-19 government-sanctioned distancing measures. COVID-19 is a persistent public health threat, thus, the long-term consequences are largely unknown. This qualitative research study, a content analysis of online Canadian media reports of COVID-19 and children, engaged transdisciplinary social justice methodology, social constructions of childhood at the intersection of race, socio-economic status, gender, and disability. The findings suggest COVID-19 reinforces the impact of social exclusion and economic disparity on equity-seeking young people and families in Canada.

scholarly journals Facemask shortage and the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak: Reflection on public health measures

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huailiang Wu ◽  
Jian Huang ◽  
Casper J. P. Zhang ◽  
Zonglin He ◽  
Wai-Kit Ming
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Medical Resources ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Effective Public Health

AbstractBackgroundA novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak due to SARS-CoV-2 infection occurred in China in late-December 2019. Facemask wearing is considered as one of the most cost-effective and important measures to prevent the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but it became a social concern due to the recent global facemask shortage. China is the major facemask producer in the world, contributing to 50% of global production. However, even full productivity (20 million facemasks per day) does not seem to meet the need of a population of 1.4 billion in China.MethodsPolicy review using government websites and shortage analysis using mathematical modelling based on data obtained from the National Health Commission (NHC), the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of the People’s Republic of China, and Wuhan Bureau of Statistics.FindingsSupplies of facemasks in the whole of China would have been sufficient for both healthcare workers and the general population if the COVID-19 outbreak only occurred in Wuhan city or Hubei province. However, if the outbreak occurred in the whole of China, facemask supplies in China could last for 5 days if under the existing public health measures and a shortage of 853 million facemasks is expected by 30 Apr 2020. Assuming a gradually decreased import volume, we estimated that dramatic increase in productivity (42.7 times of the usual level) is needed to mitigate the facemask crisis by the end of April.InterpretationIn light of the COVID-19 outbreak in China, a shortage of facemasks and other medical resources can considerably compromise the efficacy of public health measures. Effective public health measures should also consider the adequacy and affordability of medical resources. Global collaboration should be strengthened to prevent the development of a global pandemic from a regional epidemic via easing the medical resources crisis in the affected countries.Research in contextEvidence before this studyWe searched PubMed and Web of Science for articles in English, between 1 Jan 1980, and 1 Jan 2020, using the search terms 1) (infection OR infectious disease* OR outbreaks) AND (modelling); and 2) (mask* OR facemask* OR medical resource*) AND (infection OR infectious disease* OR outbreaks). Most relevant studies identified were performed to predict diseases spread and to determine the original infection source of previous epidemics like SARS and H7N9. However, few studies focused on the medical resources crisis during the outbreaks.Added value of this studyTo the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the facemask shortage during the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) outbreak in China. We have summarized in detail the management strategies implemented by the Chinese governments during the outbreaks. By considering three scenarios for the outbreak development, we simulated the facemasks availability from late-December 2019 to late-April 2020 and estimated the duration of sufficient facemask supplies. Our findings showed that if the COVID-19 outbreak occurred only in Wuhan city or Hubei province, facemask shortage would not appear with the existing public health measures. However, if the outbreak occurred in the whole of China, a shortage of facemask could be substantial assuming no alternative public health measures.Implications of all the available evidenceOur findings provide insight into the public health measures to confront medical resources crisis during infectious disease outbreaks. Effective public health measures should consider the adequacy and affordability of existing medical resources. Governments across the world should revisit their emergency plans for controlling infectious disease outbreaks by taking into account the supply of and demand for the medical resource. Global collaboration should be strengthened to prevent the development of a global pandemic from a regional epidemic via easing the medical resources crisis in the affected countries.

scholarly journals Between “Essential Services” and Culpable Homicide

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 129-151
Author(s):  
Danielle N. Boaz
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
The United States ◽  
World Health ◽  
Religious Communities ◽  
Religious Leaders ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Essential Services ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared covid-19—the disease caused by the novel coronavirus—a global pandemic. As this coronavirus spread throughout the world, most countries implemented restrictions on public gatherings that greatly limited religious communities’ ability to engage in collective worship. Some religious leaders objected to these regulations, opining that faith would spare their congregants from illness or that their religious freedom is paramount to public health. Meanwhile, growing numbers of covid-19 infections were being traced back to religious leaders or gatherings. This article explores how governments have balanced freedom of worship and public health during the 2020 pandemic. Through the comparison of controversies in South Korea, India, Brazil and the United States, it highlights the paradoxes in debates about whether to hold religious communities accountable for the spread of this highly contagious and deadly disease.

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 Wave Two Surveillance in East Asia and the Pacific: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

10.2196/25454 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. e25454
Author(s):  
Lori Ann Post ◽  
Jasmine S Lin ◽  
Charles B Moss ◽  
Robert Leo Murphy ◽  
Michael G Ison ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
French Polynesia ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
High Morbidity ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Longitudinal Trend ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Second Wave

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound global impact on governments, health care systems, economies, and populations around the world. Within the East Asia and Pacific region, some countries have mitigated the spread of the novel coronavirus effectively and largely avoided severe negative consequences, while others still struggle with containment. As the second wave reaches East Asia and the Pacific, it becomes more evident that additional SARS-CoV-2 surveillance is needed to track recent shifts, rates of increase, and persistence associated with the pandemic. Objective The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for speed, acceleration, jerk, persistence, and weekly shifts, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and those countries who are managing the pandemic successfully. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed. We provide novel indicators to measure disease transmission. Methods Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 330 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in East Asia and the Pacific as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. Results The standard surveillance metrics for Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar were concerning as they had the largest new caseloads at 4301, 2588, and 1387, respectively. When looking at the acceleration of new COVID-19 infections, we found that French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines had rates at 3.17, 0.22, and 0.06 per 100,000. These three countries also ranked highest in terms of jerk at 15.45, 0.10, and 0.04, respectively. Conclusions Two of the most populous countries in East Asia and the Pacific, Indonesia and the Philippines, have alarming surveillance metrics. These two countries rank highest in new infections in the region. The highest rates of speed, acceleration, and positive upwards jerk belong to French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, and may result in explosive growth. While all countries in East Asia and the Pacific need to be cautious about reopening their countries since outbreaks are likely to occur in the second wave of COVID-19, the country of greatest concern is the Philippines. Based on standard and enhanced surveillance, the Philippines has not gained control of the COVID-19 epidemic, which is particularly troubling because the country ranks 4th in population in the region. Without extreme and rigid social distancing, quarantines, hygiene, and masking to reverse trends, the Philippines will remain on the global top 5 list of worst COVID-19 outbreaks resulting in high morbidity and mortality. The second wave will only exacerbate existing conditions and increase COVID-19 transmissions.

scholarly journals Non/Living Queerings, Undoing Certainties, and Braiding Vulnerabilities: A Collective Reflection

Artnodes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marietta Radomska ◽  
Mayra Citlalli Rojo Gómez ◽  
Margherita Pevere ◽  
Terike Haapoja
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Present Situation ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Living Matter ◽  
Collective Effort ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Formed Part ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Continuous Destruction

The ongoing global pandemic of Covid-19 has exposed SARS-CoV-2 as a potent non-human actant that resists the joint scientific, public health and socio-political efforts to contain and understand both the virus and the illness. Yet, such a narrative appears to conceal more than it reveals. The seeming agentiality of the novel coronavirus is itself but one manifestation of the continuous destruction of biodiversity, climate change, socio-economic inequalities, neocolonialism, overconsumption and the anthropogenic degradation of nature. Furthermore, focusing on the virus – an entity that holds an ambiguous status between the ‘living’ and ‘non-living’ – brings into question the issue of the agentiality of non/living matter. While the story of viral potency seems to get centre stage, overshadowing the complex and perverse entanglement of processes and phenomena which activated these potentials in the first place, the Covid-19 pandemic also becomes a prism that sheds light on the issues of environmental violence; social and environmental injustices; more-than-human agentiality; and ethico-political responses that the present situation may mobilise. This article serves as a written record of joint conversations between artists and researchers in the working group ‘Non/Living Queerings’ that formed part of the online series of events ‘Braiding Friction’ organised by the research project Biofriction. The article strives to capture the collective effort of braiding and weaving a variety of situated perspectives, theoretical toolboxes, knowledges and experiences against the background of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. In particular, the text focuses on the issues of crisis, ‘amplification effect’, viral agency and the changing notions of humanity.

scholarly journals COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and vaccine passports: Vaccination or restriction?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shohei Okamoto ◽  
Kazuki Kamimura ◽  
Kohei Komamura
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Side Effects ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Vaccine Safety ◽  
Careful Consideration ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Objectives: While the development of vaccines against the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) brought the hope of establishing herd immunity, which might help end the global pandemic, vaccine hesitancy can hinder the progress towards herd immunity. In this study, we assess the determinants of vaccine hesitancy, reasons for hesitation, and effectiveness of vaccine passports in relaxing public health restrictions. Methods: Through an online survey that includes a conjoint experiment of a demographically representative sample of 5,000 Japanese adults aged 20-74, we assess the determinants of vaccine hesitancy, reasons for hesitation, and effectiveness of hypothetical vaccine passports. Results: We found that about 30% of respondents did not intend to vaccinate or have not yet decided, with major reasons for vaccine hesitancy being related to concerns about the safety and side effects of the vaccine. In line with previous findings, younger age, lower socioeconomic status, and psychological factors such as weaker COVID-19 fear were associated with vaccine hesitancy. The easing of public health restrictions such as travel, wearing face masks, and dining out at night was associated with an increase in vaccine acceptance by 4-10%. Conclusion: Vaccine hesitancy can be reduced by mitigating the concerns about vaccine safety and side effects, as well as by relaxing public health restrictions. However, the feasibility of vaccine passports needs to be sufficiently assessed, taking the ethical issues of passports and the public health impacts of the relaxation of restrictions into careful consideration.

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