scholarly journals Predicting cardiovascular risk using data from social media (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anietie Andy ◽  
Sharath Guntuku ◽  
Srinath Adusumalli ◽  
David Asch ◽  
Peter Groeneveld ◽  
...  

BACKGROUND Current Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) predictive models have limitations, efforts are underway to improve the discriminatory power of ASCVD models. OBJECTIVE We sought to evaluate the discriminatory power of using social media posts to predict 10-year risk for ASCVD as compared to the pooled cohort risk equations (PCEs) METHODS We consented patients receiving care in an urban academic emergency department to share access to their Facebook posts and electronic medical records (EMR). We retrieved Facebook status updates up to 5-years prior to study enrollment for all consenting patients. We identified patients (n=181) without a prior history of coronary heart disease, an ASCVD score in their EMR, and more than 200 words in their Facebook posts. Using Facebook posts from these patients, we applied a machine learning (ML) model to predict 10-year ASCVD risk scores. Using a ML model and a psycholinguistic dictionary, Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) we evaluated if language from posts alone could predict differences in risk scores and the association of certain words with risk categories, respectively. RESULTS A ML model predicted the 10-year ASCVD risk scores for these categories: <5%, 5% - 7.4%, 7.5% - 9.9%, and >=10% with AUC’s: 0.78, 0.57, 0.72, and 0.61, respectively. A ML model distinguished between low risk (<10%) and high risk (>10%) with an AUC of 0.69. Additionally, a ML model predicted the ASCVD risk score with Pearson’s r = 0.26. Using LIWC, patients with higher ASCVD scores were more likely to use words associated with sadness (Pearson’s r = 0.32). CONCLUSIONS Language used on social media can provide insights about an individual’s ASCVD risk and inform approaches to risk modification.

JMIR Cardio ◽  
10.2196/24473 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. e24473
Author(s):  
Anietie U Andy ◽  
Sharath C Guntuku ◽  
Srinath Adusumalli ◽  
David A Asch ◽  
Peter W Groeneveld ◽  
...  

Background Current atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) predictive models have limitations; thus, efforts are underway to improve the discriminatory power of ASCVD models. Objective We sought to evaluate the discriminatory power of social media posts to predict the 10-year risk for ASCVD as compared to that of pooled cohort risk equations (PCEs). Methods We consented patients receiving care in an urban academic emergency department to share access to their Facebook posts and electronic medical records (EMRs). We retrieved Facebook status updates up to 5 years prior to study enrollment for all consenting patients. We identified patients (N=181) without a prior history of coronary heart disease, an ASCVD score in their EMR, and more than 200 words in their Facebook posts. Using Facebook posts from these patients, we applied a machine-learning model to predict 10-year ASCVD risk scores. Using a machine-learning model and a psycholinguistic dictionary, Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count, we evaluated if language from posts alone could predict differences in risk scores and the association of certain words with risk categories, respectively. Results The machine-learning model predicted the 10-year ASCVD risk scores for the categories <5%, 5%-7.4%, 7.5%-9.9%, and ≥10% with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.78, 0.57, 0.72, and 0.61, respectively. The machine-learning model distinguished between low risk (<10%) and high risk (>10%) with an AUC of 0.69. Additionally, the machine-learning model predicted the ASCVD risk score with Pearson r=0.26. Using Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count, patients with higher ASCVD scores were more likely to use words associated with sadness (r=0.32). Conclusions Language used on social media can provide insights about an individual’s ASCVD risk and inform approaches to risk modification.


Circulation ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 132 (suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Binh An P Phan ◽  
Bernard Weigel ◽  
Yifei Ma ◽  
Rebecca Scherzer ◽  
Danny Li ◽  
...  

Background: While HIV infection is associated with increased risk of ASCVD (atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease), it is unknown whether guidelines can identify HIV-infected adults who may benefit from statins. The purpose of our study was to compare the 2013 ACC/AHA and 2004 ATP III recommendations in a HIV population, and to evaluate associations with carotid artery intima-media thickness (CIMT) and plaque. Methods: We used ultrasound to measure CIMT at baseline and 3 years later in 352 HIV-infected adults with no ASCVD and not on statins. Plaque was defined as IMT > 1.5 mm. We compared 2013 ACC/AHA and 2004 ATP III recommendations, and evaluated associations with CIMT and plaque. Results: At baseline, the median age was 43 (IQR 39-49), 85% were male, 74% were on antiretroviral medication, and 50% had plaque. At follow-up, the median IMT progression was 0.052 mm/yr, and 66% had plaque. The 2013 guideline was more likely to recommend statins compared with the 2004 guideline, both overall (26% vs. 14%, p<.001), in those with plaque (32% vs. 17%, p=.0002), and in those without plaque (16% vs. 7%, p=.025). In unadjusted linear regression, the 2004 and 2013 risk score were strongly associated with CIMT (0.01 mm per 10% increase in risk, p<.001) and with CIMT progression (0.01 mm/yr per 10% increase in risk, p<.001). In multivariate analysis, older age, higher LDL-C, pack-years of smoking, and history of opportunistic infection were associated with baseline plaque. Conclusions: While the 2013 ACC/AHA guideline recommended statins to a greater number of HIV-infected adults compared to the 2004 ATP III guideline, both failed to recommend therapy in the majority of HIV-affected adults with carotid plaque. Both the 2004 and 2013 guidelines predicted higher levels of baseline CIMT and faster progression. HIV-specific guidelines that include detection of subclinical atherosclerosis may help to identify HIV-infected adults who are at increased ASCVD risk and may benefit from statins.


Author(s):  
Felicia C Chow ◽  
Asya Lyass ◽  
Taylor F Mahoney ◽  
Joseph M Massaro ◽  
Virginia A Triant ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and associated comorbidities increase the risk of cognitive impairment in persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH). Given the potential composite effect of multiple cardiovascular risk factors on cognition, we examined the ability of the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk score and the Framingham Heart Study Global CVD risk score (FRS) to predict future cognitive function in older PLWH. Methods We constructed linear regression models evaluating the association between baseline 10-year cardiovascular risk scores and cognitive function (measured by a summary z-score, the NPZ-4) at a year 4 follow-up visit. Results Among 988 participants (mean age, 52 years; 20% women), mean 10-year ASCVD risk score at entry into the cohort was 6.8% (standard deviation [SD], 7.1%) and FRS was 13.1% (SD, 10.7%). In models adjusted only for cognitive function at entry, the ASCVD risk score significantly predicted year 4 NPZ-4 in the entire cohort and after stratification by sex (for every 1% higher ASCVD risk, year 4 NPZ-4 was lower by 0.84 [SD, 0.28] overall, P = .003; lower by 2.17 [SD, 0.67] in women, P = .001; lower by 0.78 [SD, 0.32] in men, P = .016). A similar relationship was observed between FRS and year 4 NPZ-4. In multivariable models, higher 10-year ASCVD risk and FRS predicted lower NPZ-4 in women. Conclusions Baseline 10-year ASCVD risk and FRS predicted future cognitive function in older PLWH with well-controlled infection. Cardiovascular risk scores may help to identify PLWH, especially women, who are at risk for worse cognition over time.


2010 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey R. Casterella ◽  
Kevan L. Jensen ◽  
W. Robert Knechel

SUMMARY: This study examines the association between certain audit firm characteristics and audit firm litigation risk. Previous research shows a link between audit client characteristics and audit firm litigation risk. However, insurance companies do not make extensive use of financial information about individual audit clients to make risk assessments. Instead, they primarily use information about the audit firms themselves. Using data from a large insurance company, we examine the link between several audit firm characteristics and audit-related litigation. Based on a dichotomous measure of risk (existence of a lawsuit), we find that larger firms, firms experiencing rapid growth, firms that sue their clients, and firms with a history of problems all face greater litigation risk. Introducing a continuous measure of the cost of litigation we find, in addition to the previously mentioned risk factors, that firms with a prior history of regulatory problems and firms that choose smaller deductibles are more risky to the insurance company. However, our proxies for independence and expertise are not associated with litigation risk.


2020 ◽  
pp. jrheum.200188
Author(s):  
Jean W. Liew ◽  
John D. Reveille ◽  
Maria Castillo ◽  
Henna Sawhney ◽  
Benjamin S. Naovarat ◽  
...  

Objective Cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality are increased in axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). We conducted a cross-sectional study evaluating the 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk in axSpA compared to the general US population. Methods We included 211 adults, 40–75 years old with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) or nonradiographic axSpA from 2 sites, who had available data on comorbidities, medication use, blood pressure measures, and laboratory cholesterol values. General population comparators from the 2009–2014 National Health and Examination Survey (NHANES) cycles were matched 4:1 to subjects, on age, sex, and race. We estimated the prevalence ratio for a 10-year ASCVD risk score ≥ 7.5% comparing axSpA and matched NHANES comparators using conditional Poisson regression. Results Overall, subjects were 53.9 ± 11.2 years old, 69% were male, and 74% were White. The mean 10-year ASCVD risk score was 6.7 ± 6.9% for those with axSpA, and 9.0 ± 10.5% for NHANES comparators. Compared to those with axSpA, the prevalence of current smoking and diabetes was higher among NHANES comparators. The estimated prevalence ratio for a 10-year ASCVD risk score ≥ 7.5% comparing those with axSpA and their age-, sex-, and race-matched comparators was 0.96 (95% CI 0.74–1.24). Conclusion The prevalence of a 10-year ASCVD risk score ≥ 7.5% was not significantly different comparing axSpA patients and those drawn from the general population who were similar in terms of age, sex, and race. Future studies should focus on improved CV risk prediction in axSpA, because underestimation by a general population risk score may potentially explain these results.


Circulation ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 131 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Duke Appiah ◽  
Pamela J Schreiner ◽  
Raegan W Durant ◽  
Sharina D Person ◽  
Catarina I Kiefe ◽  
...  

Introduction: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has decreased over recent decades, in part, due to changes in the prevalence of risk factors. However, few studies have explored the impact of the obesity epidemic on CVD risk prediction in young adults. Hypothesis: We assessed the hypothesis that BMI trends are positively associated with changes in 10-year AHA/ACC atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk scores from young adulthood to middle age beyond the effect of other CVD risk factors included in the scores (age, sex, race, lipids, blood pressure, hypertension medication, diabetes, smoking). METHODS: Data were obtained from 2437 black and white men and women aged 18-30 years at baseline (1985-1986) enrolled in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study with follow-up exams at year 0, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 (ages 43-55 years). Repeated-measures regression was used to model the association between ASCVD risk scores and time-varying BMI measures. RESULTS: The average 10-year ASCVD risk increased from 0.6% at baseline (mean age: 25.3) to 3.9% at year 25 (mean age: 50.3) with the change higher for men (blacks: 1.0 to 8.2%, whites: 0.3 to 4.6%) than women (blacks: 0.5 to 3.6%, whites: 1.2 to 1.4%). The overall prevalence of obesity at baseline and year 25 was 10% and 42% respectively. BMI trends were positively associated with 10-year change in ASCVD risk scores (0.12% per 1 kg/m2 increase, p<0.001). BMI adjustment minimally reduced risk scores trends with the greatest change between unadjusted and adjusted risk scores observed among black women (0.1 to 3.0%) (Figures A and B). CONCLUSION: In young adults, BMI trends are associated positively with 10-year changes in ASCVD risk independent of other risk factors. This adds to the evidence that weight control in early adulthood is an important predictor of lower future CVD risk.


Circulation ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 137 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arianne Clare Agdamag ◽  
Joanne Gomez ◽  
Kumar Rajan ◽  
Emma Fleisher ◽  
Isabel Kats ◽  
...  

Background: Increased detection of heart disease in women has been advocated nationally in recent years. The atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk score was validated as determinant of the 10-year risk for first occurrence of nonfatal myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, or fatal or nonfatal stroke in 2013. While measurement of blood pressure, glucose, and lipid levels are common in screening, the utility of non-traditional methods such as electrocardiogram (ECG) and transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) remains unknown. We examined the association of ECG and TTE abnormalities with ASCVD risk score among asymptomatic women from a community-based event. Methods: Data were gathered from 355 women (mean age 53±13 years, 24.2% African American, 59.7% Caucasian, 6.2% Hispanic, 9.9% Others) from a voluntary cardiovascular community screening event sponsored by the 2BigHearts Foundation and Rush University Medical Center in February 2007 and May 2008. Demographics, lipid panel, blood pressure, self- reported medication lists, co-morbidities, screening TTE, and ECG were obtained. The 10-year ASCVD risk score was ascertained for the cohort (283 persons, 79.7%). Chi-square testing was used to determine association of ECG and/or TTE abnormalities with ASCVD risk score. Results: The average ASCVD risk score for the entire cohort was 5.49%, with a range from 0.1-49.2. The mean ASCVD risk score was elevated in patients with either ECG or TTE abnormalities compared to those with normal findings (ECG: 7.59±9.46 vs. 4.62±5.39, p<0.0014; TTE: 8.19±10.12 vs. 4.81±5.73, p<0.037). The presence of both ECG and TTE abnormalities was associated with a higher mean ASCVD risk score compared to having either ECG or TTE abnormalities alone (ECG+TTE: 13.07±14.32 vs. ECG: 5.7±6.19 vs. TTE: 5.27±4.65, p<0.006). Conclusion: Detection of ECG and/or TTE abnormalities are associated with elevated ASCVD risk scores in this cohort of asymptomatic women and could potentially identify patients at higher risk for cardiovascular events, and facilitate aggressive risk factor modification. Further studies are needed to confirm ECG and TTE as viable additional screening tools to traditional risk screening.


Circulation ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 143 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sun Young Jeong ◽  
Lara Kovell ◽  
Timothy B Plante ◽  
Christina C Wee ◽  
Edgar R Miller ◽  
...  

Background: The Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet is known to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, but its effects on 10-year CVD risk based on the pooled cohort estimating equation has not been reported. Objective: To determine the effects of adopting the DASH diet on 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk compared to a typical American (control) diet or a diet rich fruit and vegetables (F/V), but otherwise similar to control. Methods: The DASH trial was a 3-arm, parallel-group, randomized controlled feeding trial of 459 adults aged 22 to 75 years without CVD and not taking anti-hypertensive or diabetes medications. These participants were randomized to a control diet, a F/V diet, or the DASH diet for 8 weeks. Weight was kept constant. Blood pressure (BP) and lipids were measured at baseline and at 8-weeks to compare 10-year ASCVD risk scores across dietary assignments. Comparisons were performed via linear regression adjusted for baseline ASCVD risk score. Results: The mean age of participants was 45 years; 49% were women, 60% were black, and 10% were current smokers. Mean systolic BP was 131.3±10.8 mm Hg, mean LDL cholesterol was 121±32 mg/dL, and mean HDL cholesterol was 48±14 mg/dL. Both DASH and F/V diets shifted the distribution of ASCVD risk scores downward compared to the control diet ( Figure, Panel A ). Compared to the control diet, the DASH and F/V diets reduced 10-year ASCVD risk by 10.0% (95% CI: -17.7, -1.5; P = 0.02) and 11.7% (95% CI: -19.3, -3.3; P = 0.007) respectively ( Figure, Panel B ). There was no difference between the DASH and F/V diets (-1.9%; 95% CI: -10.3, 7.4; P = 0.68). Conclusions: Compared to the control diet, the DASH and F/V diets reduced 10-year ASCVD risk, while the DASH and F/V had similar effects.


Blood ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 126 (23) ◽  
pp. 5363-5363
Author(s):  
John H. Chen ◽  
Daniel J. Lenihan ◽  
Sharon E. Phillips ◽  
Madan H. Jagasia ◽  
Stacey A. Goodman ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction Proteasome inhibitors (PI) bortezomib (B) and carfilzomib (C) are cornerstone therapies for multiple myeloma (MM). An increased incidence of PI-induced cardiac adverse events (CAEs) has been reported in patients receiving C. However, risk factors for cardiac toxicity in this population remain unclear. Our objective is to evaluate the incidence of CAEs associated with C compared with B and identify risk factors for developing events. Patients and Method This was a retrospective analysis of 96 consecutive patients treated for MM at Vanderbilt University from 2011 to 2014 who received B (n=44) and/or C (n=52). Patients in the C group had been previously treated with B, whereas patients in the B group did not have exposure to C. No patients studied were included in both cohorts. We evaluated the clinical features and frequency of CAEs (grade II-IV heart failure, acute coronary syndrome, left ventricular dysfunction, atrial fibrillation/flutter, thromboembolism, systemic hypertension, pulmonary hypertension, orthostatic hypotension, or sudden cardiac death). To identify factors that predisposed patients to CAEs, we analyzed duration of PI therapy, 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk (calculated risk of myocardial infarction or stroke), gender, use of antithrombotic (antiplatelet/anticoagulant) and antihypertensive medications, prior history of cardiac events, and disease cytogenetic profile. Patients with a prior history of cardiac events were followed by a cardio-oncologist during the course of treatment. Results Table 1 shows patient characteristics. Twenty-five patients experienced CAEs (B, 13% (n=12); C, 25% (n=13)). Cumulative incidence (CI) of CAEs was not significantly different in patients on C compared with B (log-rank test P = 0.41) (Figure 1). Heart failure was the most common type of CAE (Table 2). CAEs occurred after a median of 90 days (range, 4-456) with C and 63.5 days (range, 5-336) with B. By univariate analysis, more patients in the C group were prior smokers, underwent stem cell transplantation and had more prior lines of therapy. More patients in the B group used antithrombotic and ACE inhibitor agents. There were no other significant differences in the use of antihypertensive, antiarrhythmic, and lipid-lowering medications between cohorts. Multivariate analysis showed that male gender (HR 5.3, 95% CI 1.5-18.0, P = 0.007) was an independent risk factor for developing CAEs. Patients taking antithrombotic agents had a lower risk of CAE compared with those not on these therapies (HR 0.1, 95% CI 0.04-0.54, P = 0.004). While ASCVD risk was not predictive of CAEs, patients with a prior history of cardiac events who were followed by a cardio-oncologist experienced fewer CAEs (HR 0.2, 95% CI 0.05-0.72, P = 0.014). Longer duration of PI use resulted in decreasing risk of CAE (HR 0.8, 95% CI 0.7-0.9, P = 0.010). There were no interactions between these outcomes. Conclusions In this series, the incidence of CAEs associated with C did not differ significantly from that of B. We found that events occurred early in therapy. Male gender was an independent risk factor for CAEs. Use of antithrombotic therapy was associated with significantly reduced risk of CAEs. These data suggest that patients may benefit from antithrombotic therapy and follow-up by a cardio-oncologist while on PI therapy, particularly if there is a prior history of cardiac events. Table 1. Bortezomib % (n=44) Carfilzomib % (n=52) P-value ASCVD Risk 0.43 0-10% 46 50 10-20% 29 36 >20% 26 14 Male Gender 57 71 0.82 Median Age, y 61 (38-91) 60 (36-86) 0.20 Past Smoker 26 51 0.02 Type II Diabetes 11 17 0.41 Hyperlipidemia 27 27 0.97 Kidney Disease 9 12 0.70 Prior History of Cardiac Event 59 60 0.96 Median Duration on Bortezomib, d 229 203 0.67 Median Duration on Carfilzomib, d 87.5 ACE Inhibitor Use 32 13 0.03 Antithrombotic Use 48 23 0.01 ISS Stage 0.72 III 34 25 FISH Risk 0.13 Standard/Intermediate 93 85 High 7 15 Median Prior Lines of Therapy 0 (0-4) 2 (0-8) <0.001 Stem Cell Transplant 45 65 0.05 Table 2. Cardiac adverse events Bortezomib Carfilzomib P-value Total Cardiac Adverse Events* 19 17 0.08 Heart Failure 9 6 Acute Coronary Syndrome 1 2 Left Ventricular Dysfunction 0 1 Atrial Fibrillation/Flutter 2 2 Thromboembolism 2 2 Systemic Hypertension 3 3 Pulmonary Hypertension 0 1 Orthostatic Hypotension 2 0 Sudden Cardiac Death 0 0 *Some patients had multiple events Figure 1. Cumulative incidence of cardiac adverse events Figure 1. Cumulative incidence of cardiac adverse events Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


Author(s):  
Moises A Huaman ◽  
Carlo N De Cecco ◽  
Marcio S Bittencourt ◽  
Eduardo Ticona ◽  
Cissy Kityo ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Tuberculosis has been linked to an increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). We assessed whether latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is associated with subclinical coronary atherosclerosis in two TB-prevalent areas. Methods We analyzed cross-sectional data from studies conducted in Lima, Peru, and Kampala, Uganda. Individuals ≥40 years old were included. We excluded persons with known history of ASCVD events or active TB. Participants underwent QuantiFERON®-TB (QFT) testing to define LTBI, and computed tomography angiography to examine coronary atherosclerosis. A Coronary Artery Disease-Reporting Data System (CAD-RADS) score ≥3 defined obstructive CAD (plaque causing ≥50% stenosis). Results 113 persons with LTBI and 91 persons without LTBI were included. There were no significant differences between LTBI and non-LTBI participants in terms of age (median [interquartile range]; 56 [51–62] vs. 55 [49–64], p=0.829), male sex (38% vs. 42%; p=0.519), or 10-year ASCVD risk scores (7.1 [3.2–11.7] vs. 6.1 [2.8–10.8]; p=0.533). CAD prevalence (any plaque) was similar between groups (29% vs. 24%; p=0.421). Obstructive CAD was present in 9% of LTBI and 3% of non-LTBI individuals; p=0.095. LTBI was associated with obstructive CAD after adjusting for ASCVD risk score, HIV status, and study site (adjusted odds ratio, 4.96, 95% CI 1.05–23.44; p=0.043). Quantitative QFT TB antigen minus nil interferon-gamma responses were associated with obstructive CAD (adjusted odds ratio, 1.2, 95% CI 1.03–1.41; p=0.022). Conclusions LTBI was independently associated with an increased likelihood of subclinical obstructive CAD. Our data indicates that LTBI is a non-traditional correlate of ASCVD risk.


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