scholarly journals Predicting emotional state using behavioural markers derived from passively sensed data (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emese Sukei ◽  
Agnes Norbury ◽  
Mercedes Perez-Rodriguez ◽  
Pablo M. Olmos ◽  
Antonio Artés Rodríguez
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Emotional State ◽  
Psychological Symptoms ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Emotional Valence ◽  
Heterogeneous Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Missing Observations

BACKGROUND Mental health disorders affect multiple aspects of patients' lives, including mood, cognition, and behaviour. The advent of eHealth and mHealth technologies enables rich sets of information to be collected from individuals in a non-invasive way presenting a promising opportunity for the construction of behavioural markers of mental health. Importantly, combining such data with self-reported information about psychological symptoms may provide a more comprehensive and contextualised view of a patient's mental state than questionnaire data alone. However, in the real world, this kind of data is usually noisy and incomplete - with significant numbers of missing observations. Realising the clinical potential of mHealth tools, therefore depends critically upon the development of methods to cope with such data. OBJECTIVE Here, we present a machine learning-based approach for emotional valence (mood) analysis using passively-collected data from mobile phones and wearable devices. METHODS Passively-sensed behaviour and self-reported emotional state data from an international cohort of N=943 individuals (psychiatric outpatients recruited from community clinics) were available for analysis. All study participants had at least 30 days worth of observations of naturally-occurring behaviour, which included information about physical activity, geolocation, sleep, and smartphone app usage. These regularly sampled, but frequently missing and heterogeneous time series data were analysed using a semi-supervised Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for data averaging and feature extraction, which was then combined with a classifier to provide emotional valence predictions. We examined the performance of both a variety of classical machine learning methods and recurrent neural networks. RESULTS The best-performing models achieved greater than 0.80 Area Under the Curve of the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUC-ROC) and 0.75 Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUC-PRC) when predicting self-reported emotional valence from behaviour in held-out test data. Models which took into account the posterior probabilities of latent states identified by the HMM analysis outperformed those which did not - suggesting that the underlying behavioural patterns identified were meaningful with respect to individuals' overall emotional state. CONCLUSIONS These findings demonstrate the feasibility of designing machine learning models for predicting emotional state from mobile sensing data that are capable of dealing with heterogeneous data with large numbers of missing observations. Such models may represent a valuable tool for clinicians in the monitoring of mood states of their patients.

scholarly journals Predicting Emotional States Using Behavioral Markers Derived From Passively Sensed Data: Data-Driven Machine Learning Approach

10.2196/24465 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. e24465
Author(s):  
Emese Sükei ◽  
Agnes Norbury ◽  
M Mercedes Perez-Rodriguez ◽  
Pablo M Olmos ◽  
Antonio Artés
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Individual Differences ◽  
Emotional State ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Emotional States ◽  
Missing Observations ◽  
State Prediction ◽  
Behavioral Markers

Background Mental health disorders affect multiple aspects of patients’ lives, including mood, cognition, and behavior. eHealth and mobile health (mHealth) technologies enable rich sets of information to be collected noninvasively, representing a promising opportunity to construct behavioral markers of mental health. Combining such data with self-reported information about psychological symptoms may provide a more comprehensive and contextualized view of a patient’s mental state than questionnaire data alone. However, mobile sensed data are usually noisy and incomplete, with significant amounts of missing observations. Therefore, recognizing the clinical potential of mHealth tools depends critically on developing methods to cope with such data issues. Objective This study aims to present a machine learning–based approach for emotional state prediction that uses passively collected data from mobile phones and wearable devices and self-reported emotions. The proposed methods must cope with high-dimensional and heterogeneous time-series data with a large percentage of missing observations. Methods Passively sensed behavior and self-reported emotional state data from a cohort of 943 individuals (outpatients recruited from community clinics) were available for analysis. All patients had at least 30 days’ worth of naturally occurring behavior observations, including information about physical activity, geolocation, sleep, and smartphone app use. These regularly sampled but frequently missing and heterogeneous time series were analyzed with the following probabilistic latent variable models for data averaging and feature extraction: mixture model (MM) and hidden Markov model (HMM). The extracted features were then combined with a classifier to predict emotional state. A variety of classical machine learning methods and recurrent neural networks were compared. Finally, a personalized Bayesian model was proposed to improve performance by considering the individual differences in the data and applying a different classifier bias term for each patient. Results Probabilistic generative models proved to be good preprocessing and feature extractor tools for data with large percentages of missing observations. Models that took into account the posterior probabilities of the MM and HMM latent states outperformed those that did not by more than 20%, suggesting that the underlying behavioral patterns identified were meaningful for individuals’ overall emotional state. The best performing generalized models achieved a 0.81 area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic and 0.71 area under the precision-recall curve when predicting self-reported emotional valence from behavior in held-out test data. Moreover, the proposed personalized models demonstrated that accounting for individual differences through a simple hierarchical model can substantially improve emotional state prediction performance without relying on previous days’ data. Conclusions These findings demonstrate the feasibility of designing machine learning models for predicting emotional states from mobile sensing data capable of dealing with heterogeneous data with large numbers of missing observations. Such models may represent valuable tools for clinicians to monitor patients’ mood states.

Development of A Drug Early Warning System Model for Cardiac Arrest Using Deep Learning: Retrospective Cohort Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hsiao-Ko Chang ◽  
Hui-Chih Wang ◽  
Chih-Fen Huang ◽  
Feipei Lai
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Vital Signs ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Dynamic Time

BACKGROUND In most of Taiwan’s medical institutions, congestion is a serious problem for emergency departments. Due to a lack of beds, patients spend more time in emergency retention zones, which make it difficult to detect cardiac arrest (CA). OBJECTIVE We seek to develop a Drug Early Warning System Model (DEWSM), it included drug injections and vital signs as this research important features. We use it to predict cardiac arrest in emergency departments via drug classification and medical expert suggestion. METHODS We propose this new model for detecting cardiac arrest via drug classification and by using a sliding window; we apply learning-based algorithms to time-series data for a DEWSM. By treating drug features as a dynamic time-series factor for cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) patients, we increase sensitivity, reduce false alarm rates and mortality, and increase the model’s accuracy. To evaluate the proposed model, we use the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS Four important findings are as follows: (1) We identify the most important drug predictors: bits (intravenous therapy), and replenishers and regulators of water and electrolytes (fluid and electrolyte supplement). The best AUROC of bits is 85%, it means the medical expert suggest the drug features: bits, it will affect the vital signs, and then the evaluate this model correctly classified patients with CPR reach 85%; that of replenishers and regulators of water and electrolytes is 86%. These two features are the most influential of the drug features in the task. (2) We verify feature selection, in which accounting for drugs improve the accuracy: In Task 1, the best AUROC of vital signs is 77%, and that of all features is 86%. In Task 2, the best AUROC of all features is 85%, which demonstrates that thus accounting for the drugs significantly affects prediction. (3) We use a better model: For traditional machine learning, this study adds a new AI technology: the long short-term memory (LSTM) model with the best time-series accuracy, comparable to the traditional random forest (RF) model; the two AUROC measures are 85%. It can be seen that the use of new AI technology will achieve better results, currently comparable to the accuracy of traditional common RF, and the LSTM model can be adjusted in the future to obtain better results. (4) We determine whether the event can be predicted beforehand: The best classifier is still an RF model, in which the observational starting time is 4 hours before the CPR event. Although the accuracy is impaired, the predictive accuracy still reaches 70%. Therefore, we believe that CPR events can be predicted four hours before the event. CONCLUSIONS This paper uses a sliding window to account for dynamic time-series data consisting of the patient’s vital signs and drug injections. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) only focuses on the score of vital signs, and does not include factors related to drug injections. In this study, the experimental results of adding the drug injections are better than only vital signs. In a comparison with NEWS, we improve predictive accuracy via feature selection, which includes drugs as features. In addition, we use traditional machine learning methods and deep learning (using LSTM method as the main processing time series data) as the basis for comparison of this research. The proposed DEWSM, which offers 4-hour predictions, is better than the NEWS in the literature. This also confirms that the doctor’s heuristic rules are consistent with the results found by machine learning algorithms.

scholarly journals Implementation of IoT Framework with Data Analysis Using Deep Learning Methods for Occupancy Prediction in a Building

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Eric Hitimana ◽  
Gaurav Bajpai ◽  
Richard Musabe ◽  
Louis Sibomana ◽  
Jayavel Kayalvizhi
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Feed Forward Network

Many countries worldwide face challenges in controlling building incidence prevention measures for fire disasters. The most critical issues are the localization, identification, detection of the room occupant. Internet of Things (IoT) along with machine learning proved the increase of the smartness of the building by providing real-time data acquisition using sensors and actuators for prediction mechanisms. This paper proposes the implementation of an IoT framework to capture indoor environmental parameters for occupancy multivariate time-series data. The application of the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Deep Learning algorithm is used to infer the knowledge of the presence of human beings. An experiment is conducted in an office room using multivariate time-series as predictors in the regression forecasting problem. The results obtained demonstrate that with the developed system it is possible to obtain, process, and store environmental information. The information collected was applied to the LSTM algorithm and compared with other machine learning algorithms. The compared algorithms are Support Vector Machine, Naïve Bayes Network, and Multilayer Perceptron Feed-Forward Network. The outcomes based on the parametric calibrations demonstrate that LSTM performs better in the context of the proposed application.

Prediction and Analysis of Gold Prices using Ensemble Machine Learning Algorithms

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (VI) ◽  
pp. 4367-4374
Author(s):  
Gudipally Chandrashakar
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Ensemble Machine Learning

In this article, we used historical time series data up to the current day gold price. In this study of predicting gold price, we consider few correlating factors like silver price, copper price, standard, and poor’s 500 value, dollar-rupee exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average Value. Considering the prices of every correlating factor and gold price data where dates ranging from 2008 January to 2021 February. Few algorithms of machine learning are used to analyze the time-series data are Random Forest Regression, Support Vector Regressor, Linear Regressor, ExtraTrees Regressor and Gradient boosting Regression. While seeing the results the Extra Tree Regressor algorithm gives the predicted value of gold prices more accurately.

scholarly journals Mental Health and Political Representation: A Roadmap

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Bernardi
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Mental Health Services ◽  
Health Services ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Representation ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Political Equality ◽  
Public Preferences ◽  
Policy Problems

Research on health and political behavior has identified a significant mental health-participation gap that is likely to have important consequences for political equality. Yet such consequences remain by and large unexplored. Inspired by 60 years of empirical research on public opinion, media and policy, this article proposes a roadmap for research on the political representation of mental health. It advances a number of research questions around 1) opinion formation and issue emergence and evolution, 2) multiple and complementary societal signals that can influence policy makers’ issue attention and policy change, and 3) different conceptions of representation and their consequences for public attitudes and political participation. The article also provides a preliminary attempt at addressing whether mental health spending incorporates signals from public preferences for spending on mental health services or policy problems. Making use of time-series data on spending on mental health services by local authorities in England between 1994 and 2013, the analysis finds no statistical association between spending and policy problems and reveals a negative relationship between spending and public preferences, suggesting that if spending is reacting at all to preferences, it misrepresents them. This article invites scholars to collect more data and produce more research that will guide interventions to help overcome stigma and participation challenges that undermine political equality as one of the key principles of democracy.

scholarly journals Risk Monitoring and Quantitative Results of Various Attributes of Machine Learning Algorithms with a Time Series Data

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 4018-4022
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithm ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Risk Monitoring ◽  
Quantitative Results

The aim of this research is to do risk modelling after analysis of twitter posts based on certain sentiment analysis. In this research we analyze posts of several users or a particular user to check whether they can be cause of concern to the society or not. Every sentiment like happy, sad, anger and other emotions are going to provide scaling of severity in the conclusion of final table on which machine learning algorithm is applied. The data which is put under the machine learning algorithms are been monitored over a period of time and it is related to a particular topic in an area

scholarly journals An Interpretable Early Dynamic Sequential Predictor for Sepsis-Induced Coagulopathy Progression in the Real-World Using Machine Learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruixia Cui ◽  
Wenbo Hua ◽  
Kai Qu ◽  
Heran Yang ◽  
Yingmu Tong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Real World ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Early Management ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Sepsis-associated coagulation dysfunction greatly increases the mortality of sepsis. Irregular clinical time-series data remains a major challenge for AI medical applications. To early detect and manage sepsis-induced coagulopathy (SIC) and sepsis-associated disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), we developed an interpretable real-time sequential warning model toward real-world irregular data. Eight machine learning models including novel algorithms were devised to detect SIC and sepsis-associated DIC 8n (1 ≤ n ≤ 6) hours prior to its onset. Models were developed on Xi'an Jiaotong University Medical College (XJTUMC) and verified on Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC). A total of 12,154 SIC and 7,878 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH) overt-DIC labels were annotated according to the SIC and ISTH overt-DIC scoring systems in train set. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) were used as model evaluation metrics. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model can predict SIC and sepsis-associated DIC events up to 48 h earlier with an AUROC of 0.929 and 0.910, respectively, and even reached 0.973 and 0.955 at 8 h earlier, achieving the highest performance to date. The novel ODE-RNN model achieved continuous prediction at arbitrary time points, and with an AUROC of 0.962 and 0.936 for SIC and DIC predicted 8 h earlier, respectively. In conclusion, our model can predict the sepsis-associated SIC and DIC onset up to 48 h in advance, which helps maximize the time window for early management by physicians.

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