scholarly journals Prediction of the prolonged length of hospital stay after cancer surgery using the machine learning on electronic health records: Retrospective cross-sectional study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong-Yeon Jo ◽  
Jai Hong Han ◽  
Hyun Woo Park ◽  
Hyojung Jung ◽  
Jaedong Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Cancer Surgery ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Cancer Center ◽  
Cancer Type ◽  
Prolonged Length ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Postoperative Length ◽  
After Cancer

BACKGROUND Postoperative length of stay is a key indicator in the management of medical resources and an indirect parameter of the incidence of surgical complications and recovery of systemic conditions in cancer surgery. To our knowledge, machine learning models have not been used to predict prolonged length of stay after cancer surgery using extensive medical information. OBJECTIVE To develop a prediction model for prolonged length of stay after cancer surgery using a machine learning approach. METHODS In our retrospective study, electronic medical records (EHR) of 42,751 patients who underwent primary surgery for 17 types of cancer from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017, sourced from a single cancer center, were used. Those records include various variables such as surgical factors, cancer factors, underlying diseases, functional laboratory assessments, general assessments, medications, and social factors. To predict prolonged length of stay after cancer surgery, we employed extreme gradient boosting classifier, multiple layer perceptron, and logistic regression models. Prolonged postoperative length of stay for cancer is defined as bed-days of the group accounting for top 50% of the distribution of bed-days by cancer type. RESULTS In the prediction of prolonged length of stay after cancer surgery, extreme gradient boosting classifier models demonstrate excellent performance for kidney and bladder cancer surgeries (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) > 0.85). A moderate performance (AUC: 0.70–0.85) was observed for stomach, breast, colon, thyroid, prostate, cervix uteri, corpus uteri, and oral cancers. For stomach, breast, colon, thyroid, and lung cancers, with more than 4000 cases, the extreme gradient boosting classifier model outperformed the other models. We identified risk variables for the prediction of prolonged postoperative length of stay for each cancer, and the importance of the variables differed depending on the cancer type. After we added operative time to the models trained on preoperative factors, the models generally outperformed the corresponding models using only preoperative variables. CONCLUSIONS A machine learning approach using EHR may improve the prediction of prolonged length of stay after primary cancer surgery. This algorithm may help in a more effective allocation of medical resources in cancer surgery. CLINICALTRIAL This study was approved by the institutional review board of the National Cancer Center-Korea, with a waiver for written informed consent (NCC-2018-0113).

scholarly journals Prediction of Prolonged Length of Hospital Stay After Cancer Surgery Using Machine Learning on Electronic Health Records: Retrospective Cross-sectional Study

10.2196/23147 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. e23147
Author(s):  
Yong-Yeon Jo ◽  
JaiHong Han ◽  
Hyun Woo Park ◽  
Hyojung Jung ◽  
Jae Dong Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Length Of Hospital Stay ◽  
Cancer Surgery ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Prolonged Length ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Postoperative Length ◽  
After Cancer

Background Postoperative length of stay is a key indicator in the management of medical resources and an indirect predictor of the incidence of surgical complications and the degree of recovery of the patient after cancer surgery. Recently, machine learning has been used to predict complex medical outcomes, such as prolonged length of hospital stay, using extensive medical information. Objective The objective of this study was to develop a prediction model for prolonged length of stay after cancer surgery using a machine learning approach. Methods In our retrospective study, electronic health records (EHRs) from 42,751 patients who underwent primary surgery for 17 types of cancer between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2017, were sourced from a single cancer center. The EHRs included numerous variables such as surgical factors, cancer factors, underlying diseases, functional laboratory assessments, general assessments, medications, and social factors. To predict prolonged length of stay after cancer surgery, we employed extreme gradient boosting classifier, multilayer perceptron, and logistic regression models. Prolonged postoperative length of stay for cancer was defined as bed-days of the group of patients who accounted for the top 50% of the distribution of bed-days by cancer type. Results In the prediction of prolonged length of stay after cancer surgery, extreme gradient boosting classifier models demonstrated excellent performance for kidney and bladder cancer surgeries (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] >0.85). A moderate performance (AUC 0.70-0.85) was observed for stomach, breast, colon, thyroid, prostate, cervix uteri, corpus uteri, and oral cancers. For stomach, breast, colon, thyroid, and lung cancers, with more than 4000 cases each, the extreme gradient boosting classifier model showed slightly better performance than the logistic regression model, although the logistic regression model also performed adequately. We identified risk variables for the prediction of prolonged postoperative length of stay for each type of cancer, and the importance of the variables differed depending on the cancer type. After we added operative time to the models trained on preoperative factors, the models generally outperformed the corresponding models using only preoperative variables. Conclusions A machine learning approach using EHRs may improve the prediction of prolonged length of hospital stay after primary cancer surgery. This algorithm may help to provide a more effective allocation of medical resources in cancer surgery.

scholarly journals Machine Learning Approaches to Classify Primary and Metastatic Cancers Using Tissue of Origin-Based DNA Methylation Profiles

Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 3768
Author(s):  
Vijayachitra Modhukur ◽  
Shakshi Sharma ◽  
Mainak Mondal ◽  
Ankita Lawarde ◽  
Keiu Kask ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Dna Methylation ◽  
Metastatic Cancer ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Cancer Type ◽  
Data Repositories ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Cancer Types ◽  
Tissue Of Origin

Metastatic cancers account for up to 90% of cancer-related deaths. The clear differentiation of metastatic cancers from primary cancers is crucial for cancer type identification and developing targeted treatment for each cancer type. DNA methylation patterns are suggested to be an intriguing target for cancer prediction and are also considered to be an important mediator for the transition to metastatic cancer. In the present study, we used 24 cancer types and 9303 methylome samples downloaded from publicly available data repositories, including The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). We constructed machine learning classifiers to discriminate metastatic, primary, and non-cancerous methylome samples. We applied support vector machines (SVM), Naive Bayes (NB), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and random forest (RF) machine learning models to classify the cancer types based on their tissue of origin. RF outperformed the other classifiers, with an average accuracy of 99%. Moreover, we applied local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) to explain important methylation biomarkers to classify cancer types.

Predicting Undesired Treatment Outcome in Mental Healthcare: Machine Learning Study (Preprint)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kasper Van Mens ◽  
Joran Lokkerbol ◽  
Richard Janssen ◽  
Robert de Lange ◽  
Bea Tiemens
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Treatment Outcome ◽  
Mental Health Treatment ◽  
Mental Healthcare ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Outcome Monitoring ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

BACKGROUND It remains a challenge to predict which treatment will work for which patient in mental healthcare. OBJECTIVE In this study we compare machine algorithms to predict during treatment which patients will not benefit from brief mental health treatment and present trade-offs that must be considered before an algorithm can be used in clinical practice. METHODS Using an anonymized dataset containing routine outcome monitoring data from a mental healthcare organization in the Netherlands (n = 2,655), we applied three machine learning algorithms to predict treatment outcome. The algorithms were internally validated with cross-validation on a training sample (n = 1,860) and externally validated on an unseen test sample (n = 795). RESULTS The performance of the three algorithms did not significantly differ on the test set. With a default classification cut-off at 0.5 predicted probability, the extreme gradient boosting algorithm showed the highest positive predictive value (ppv) of 0.71(0.61 – 0.77) with a sensitivity of 0.35 (0.29 – 0.41) and area under the curve of 0.78. A trade-off can be made between ppv and sensitivity by choosing different cut-off probabilities. With a cut-off at 0.63, the ppv increased to 0.87 and the sensitivity dropped to 0.17. With a cut-off of at 0.38, the ppv decreased to 0.61 and the sensitivity increased to 0.57. CONCLUSIONS Machine learning can be used to predict treatment outcomes based on routine monitoring data.This allows practitioners to choose their own trade-off between being selective and more certain versus inclusive and less certain.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Three Different Machine Learning Methods for Object-Based Artificial Terrace Mapping—A Case Study of the Loess Plateau, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1021
Author(s):  
Hu Ding ◽  
Jiaming Na ◽  
Shangjing Jiang ◽  
Jie Zhu ◽  
Kai Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Loess Plateau ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Nearest Neighbor ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
K Nearest Neighbor ◽  
The Loess Plateau ◽  
Object Based ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Artificial terraces are of great importance for agricultural production and soil and water conservation. Automatic high-accuracy mapping of artificial terraces is the basis of monitoring and related studies. Previous research achieved artificial terrace mapping based on high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) or imagery. As a result of the importance of the contextual information for terrace mapping, object-based image analysis (OBIA) combined with machine learning (ML) technologies are widely used. However, the selection of an appropriate classifier is of great importance for the terrace mapping task. In this study, the performance of an integrated framework using OBIA and ML for terrace mapping was tested. A catchment, Zhifanggou, in the Loess Plateau, China, was used as the study area. First, optimized image segmentation was conducted. Then, features from the DEMs and imagery were extracted, and the correlations between the features were analyzed and ranked for classification. Finally, three different commonly-used ML classifiers, namely, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), and k-nearest neighbor (KNN), were used for terrace mapping. The comparison with the ground truth, as delineated by field survey, indicated that random forest performed best, with a 95.60% overall accuracy (followed by 94.16% and 92.33% for XGBoost and KNN, respectively). The influence of class imbalance and feature selection is discussed. This work provides a credible framework for mapping artificial terraces.

scholarly journals A Machine Learning Method for Predicting Vegetation Indices in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1147
Author(s):  
Xiangqian Li ◽  
Wenping Yuan ◽  
Wenjie Dong
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Crop Growth ◽  
Spatiotemporal Distribution ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Vegetation Growth ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Boosting Method

To forecast the terrestrial carbon cycle and monitor food security, vegetation growth must be accurately predicted; however, current process-based ecosystem and crop-growth models are limited in their effectiveness. This study developed a machine learning model using the extreme gradient boosting method to predict vegetation growth throughout the growing season in China from 2001 to 2018. The model used satellite-derived vegetation data for the first month of each growing season, CO2 concentration, and several meteorological factors as data sources for the explanatory variables. Results showed that the model could reproduce the spatiotemporal distribution of vegetation growth as represented by the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The predictive error for the growing season NDVI was less than 5% for more than 98% of vegetated areas in China; the model represented seasonal variations in NDVI well. The coefficient of determination (R2) between the monthly observed and predicted NDVI was 0.83, and more than 69% of vegetated areas had an R2 > 0.8. The effectiveness of the model was examined for a severe drought year (2009), and results showed that the model could reproduce the spatiotemporal distribution of NDVI even under extreme conditions. This model provides an alternative method for predicting vegetation growth and has great potential for monitoring vegetation dynamics and crop growth.

scholarly journals Machine learning models to identify low adherence to influenza vaccination among Korean adults with cardiovascular disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moojung Kim ◽  
Young Jae Kim ◽  
Sung Jin Park ◽  
Kwang Gi Kim ◽  
Pyung Chun Oh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Influenza Vaccination ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Machine Learning Models

Abstract Background Annual influenza vaccination is an important public health measure to prevent influenza infections and is strongly recommended for cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients, especially in the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The aim of this study is to develop a machine learning model to identify Korean adult CVD patients with low adherence to influenza vaccination Methods Adults with CVD (n = 815) from a nationally representative dataset of the Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES V) were analyzed. Among these adults, 500 (61.4%) had answered "yes" to whether they had received seasonal influenza vaccinations in the past 12 months. The classification process was performed using the logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) machine learning techniques. Because the Ministry of Health and Welfare in Korea offers free influenza immunization for the elderly, separate models were developed for the < 65 and ≥ 65 age groups. Results The accuracy of machine learning models using 16 variables as predictors of low influenza vaccination adherence was compared; for the ≥ 65 age group, XGB (84.7%) and RF (84.7%) have the best accuracies, followed by LR (82.7%) and SVM (77.6%). For the < 65 age group, SVM has the best accuracy (68.4%), followed by RF (64.9%), LR (63.2%), and XGB (61.4%). Conclusions The machine leaning models show comparable performance in classifying adult CVD patients with low adherence to influenza vaccination.

scholarly journals Prediction of population behavior of Listeria monocytogenes in food using machine learning and a microbial growth and survival database

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Satoko Hiura ◽  
Shige Koseki ◽  
Kento Koyama
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Data Mining ◽  
Listeria Monocytogenes ◽  
Water Activity ◽  
Bacterial Population ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Initial Cell ◽  
Data Mining Approach ◽  
Cell Counts ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

AbstractIn predictive microbiology, statistical models are employed to predict bacterial population behavior in food using environmental factors such as temperature, pH, and water activity. As the amount and complexity of data increase, handling all data with high-dimensional variables becomes a difficult task. We propose a data mining approach to predict bacterial behavior using a database of microbial responses to food environments. Listeria monocytogenes, which is one of pathogens, population growth and inactivation data under 1,007 environmental conditions, including five food categories (beef, culture medium, pork, seafood, and vegetables) and temperatures ranging from 0 to 25 °C, were obtained from the ComBase database (www.combase.cc). We used eXtreme gradient boosting tree, a machine learning algorithm, to predict bacterial population behavior from eight explanatory variables: ‘time’, ‘temperature’, ‘pH’, ‘water activity’, ‘initial cell counts’, ‘whether the viable count is initial cell number’, and two types of categories regarding food. The root mean square error of the observed and predicted values was approximately 1.0 log CFU regardless of food category, and this suggests the possibility of predicting viable bacterial counts in various foods. The data mining approach examined here will enable the prediction of bacterial population behavior in food by identifying hidden patterns within a large amount of data.

scholarly journals Development and validation of a difficult laryngoscopy prediction model using machine learning of neck circumference and thyromental height

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jong Ho Kim ◽  
Haewon Kim ◽  
Ji Su Jang ◽  
Sung Mi Hwang ◽  
So Young Lim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Neck Circumference ◽  
Difficult Laryngoscopy ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Test Set ◽  
Equal Distribution ◽  
Light Gradient ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Abstract Background Predicting difficult airway is challengeable in patients with limited airway evaluation. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a model that predicts difficult laryngoscopy by machine learning of neck circumference and thyromental height as predictors that can be used even for patients with limited airway evaluation. Methods Variables for prediction of difficulty laryngoscopy included age, sex, height, weight, body mass index, neck circumference, and thyromental distance. Difficult laryngoscopy was defined as Grade 3 and 4 by the Cormack-Lehane classification. The preanesthesia and anesthesia data of 1677 patients who had undergone general anesthesia at a single center were collected. The data set was randomly stratified into a training set (80%) and a test set (20%), with equal distribution of difficulty laryngoscopy. The training data sets were trained with five algorithms (logistic regression, multilayer perceptron, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, and light gradient boosting machine). The prediction models were validated through a test set. Results The model’s performance using random forest was best (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.79 [95% confidence interval: 0.72–0.86], area under precision-recall curve = 0.32 [95% confidence interval: 0.27–0.37]). Conclusions Machine learning can predict difficult laryngoscopy through a combination of several predictors including neck circumference and thyromental height. The performance of the model can be improved with more data, a new variable and combination of models.

scholarly journals Explainable machine learning can outperform Cox regression predictions and provide insights in breast cancer survival

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arturo Moncada-Torres ◽  
Marissa C. van Maaren ◽  
Mathijs P. Hendriks ◽  
Sabine Siesling ◽  
Gijs Geleijnse
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Explicit Knowledge ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Metastatic Breast ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Netherlands Cancer Registry ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCox Proportional Hazards (CPH) analysis is the standard for survival analysis in oncology. Recently, several machine learning (ML) techniques have been adapted for this task. Although they have shown to yield results at least as good as classical methods, they are often disregarded because of their lack of transparency and little to no explainability, which are key for their adoption in clinical settings. In this paper, we used data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry of 36,658 non-metastatic breast cancer patients to compare the performance of CPH with ML techniques (Random Survival Forests, Survival Support Vector Machines, and Extreme Gradient Boosting [XGB]) in predicting survival using the $$c$$ c -index. We demonstrated that in our dataset, ML-based models can perform at least as good as the classical CPH regression ($$c$$ c -index $$\sim \,0.63$$ ∼ 0.63 ), and in the case of XGB even better ($$c$$ c -index $$\sim 0.73$$ ∼ 0.73 ). Furthermore, we used Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) values to explain the models’ predictions. We concluded that the difference in performance can be attributed to XGB’s ability to model nonlinearities and complex interactions. We also investigated the impact of specific features on the models’ predictions as well as their corresponding insights. Lastly, we showed that explainable ML can generate explicit knowledge of how models make their predictions, which is crucial in increasing the trust and adoption of innovative ML techniques in oncology and healthcare overall.

scholarly journals A Machine Learning Classifier for Detection of Physical Activity Types and Postures During Free-Living

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Kerstin Bach ◽  
Atle Kongsvold ◽  
Hilde Bårdstu ◽  
Ellen Marie Bardal ◽  
Håkon S. Kjærnli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Ground Truth ◽  
Daily Physical Activity ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Free Living ◽  
Recording Time ◽  
Learning Classifier ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Activity Types

Introduction: Accelerometer-based measurements of physical activity types are commonly used to replace self-reports. To advance the field, it is desirable that such measurements allow accurate detection of key daily physical activity types. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of a machine learning classifier for detecting sitting, standing, lying, walking, running, and cycling based on a dual versus single accelerometer setups during free-living. Methods: Twenty-two adults (mean age [SD, range] 38.7 [14.4, 25–68] years) were wearing two Axivity AX3 accelerometers positioned on the low back and thigh along with a GoPro camera positioned on the chest to record lower body movements during free-living. The labeled videos were used as ground truth for training an eXtreme Gradient Boosting classifier using window lengths of 1, 3, and 5 s. Performance of the classifier was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation. Results: Total recording time was ∼38 hr. Based on 5-s windowing, the overall accuracy was 96% for the dual accelerometer setup and 93% and 84% for the single thigh and back accelerometer setups, respectively. The decreased accuracy for the single accelerometer setup was due to a poor precision in detecting lying based on the thigh accelerometer recording (77%) and standing based on the back accelerometer recording (64%). Conclusion: Key daily physical activity types can be accurately detected during free-living based on dual accelerometer recording, using an eXtreme Gradient Boosting classifier. The overall accuracy decreases marginally when predictions are based on single thigh accelerometer recording, but detection of lying is poor.

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