Initial Model for Impact of Social Distancing on CoVID-19 Spread (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Genghmun Eng
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Growth Function ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Sick People ◽  
S Parameter ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Good Agreement

UNSTRUCTURED The initial stages of the CoVID-19 coronavirus pandemic all around the world exhibit a nearly exponential rise in the number of infections with time. Planners, governments, and agencies are scrambling to figure out "How much? How bad?" and how to effectively treat the potentially large numbers of simultaneously sick people. Modeling the CoVID-19 pandemic using an exponential rise implicitly assumes a nearly unlimited population of uninfected persons ("dilute pandemic"). Once a significant fraction of the population is infected ("saturated pandemic"), an exponential growth no longer applies. A new model is developed here, which modifies the standard exponential growth function to account for factors such as Social Distancing. A Social Mitigation Parameter [SMP] α/s\ is introduced to account for these types of society-wide changes, which can modify the standard exponential growth function, as follows: N(t)= No exp[ +Ko t/(1 + α/s\ t)] . The doubling-time t/dbl\=(ln2)/Ko can also be used to substitute for Ko, giving a {t/dbl\, α/s\} parameter pair for comparing to actual CoVID-19 data. This model shows how the number of CoVID-19 infections can self-limit before reaching a saturated pandemic level. It also provides estimates for: (a) the timing of the pandemic peak, (b) the maximum number of new daily cases that would be expected, and (c) the expected total number of CoVID-19 cases. This model shows fairly good agreement with the presently available CoVID-19 pandemic data for several individual States, and the for the USA as a whole (6 Figures), as well as for various countries around the World (9 Figures). An augmented model with two Mitigation Parameters, α/s\ and β/s\, is also developed, which can give better agreement with the daily new CoVID-19 data. Data-to-model comparisons also indicate that using α/s\ by itself likely provides a worst-case estimate, while using both α/s\ and β/s\ likely provides a best-case estimate for the CoVID-19 spread.

scholarly journals Initial Model for the Impact of Social Distancing on CoVID-19 Spread

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Genghmun Eng
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Growth Function ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Sick People ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Good Agreement

AbstractThe initial stages of the CoVID-19 coronavirus pandemic all around the world exhibit a nearly exponential rise in the number of infections with time. Planners, governments, and agencies are scrambling to figure out “How much? How bad?” and how to effectively treat the potentially large numbers of simultaneously sick people. Modeling the CoVID-19 pandemic using an exponential rise implicitly assumes a nearly unlimited population of uninfected persons (“dilute pandemic”). Once a significant fraction of the population is infected (“saturated pandemic”), an exponential growth no longer applies. A new model is developed here, which modifies the standard exponential growth function to account for factors such as Social Distancing. A Social Mitigation Parameter [SMP] αS is introduced to account for these types of society-wide changes, which can modify the standard exponential growth function, as follows: The doubling-time tdbl = (In 2)/Ko can also be used to substitute for Ko, giving a {tdbl, αS} parameter pair for comparing to actual CoVID-19 data. This model shows how the number of CoVID-19 infections can self-limit before reaching a saturated pandemic level. It also provides estimates for: (a) the timing of the pandemic peak, (b) the maximum number of new daily cases that would be expected, and (c) the expected total number of CoVID-19 cases. This model shows fairly good agreement with the presently available CoVID-19 pandemic data for several individual States, and the for the USA as a whole (6 Figures), as well as for various countries around the World (9 Figures). An augmented model with two Mitigation Parameters, αS and βS, is also developed, which can give better agreement with the daily new CoVID-19 data. Data-to-model comparisons also indicate that using αS by itself likely provides a worst-case estimate, while using both αS and βS likely provides a best-case estimate for the CoVID-19 spread.

Reconstructionist Strategies in Mozambique

1988 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-24
Author(s):  
Harvey Glickman
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Security System ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Parallel Action ◽  
Development Crisis

Ironically, the present security and development crisis in Southern Africa presents an unusual opportunity for early progress toward stability and justice in the region via peaceful parallel action and co-operation between the USA and the USSR. By seizing the opportunity to co-operate in what is now a worst case emergency in Mozambique, the superpowers can lay the groundwork for a security system acceptable to their interests and to those of the Africans as well. Violence and hunger in Mozambique may be the worst in the world. Their basic linkage to the efforts of the present South African regime to de-stabilize the country is unquestionable.

scholarly journals Patterns of the COVID-19 pandemic spread around the world: exponential versus power laws

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (170) ◽  
pp. 20200518 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalia L. Komarova ◽  
Luis M. Schang ◽  
Dominik Wodarz
Keyword(s):  
Power Law ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Growth Pattern ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Power Laws ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Uk

We have analysed the COVID-19 epidemic data of more than 174 countries (excluding China) in the period between 22 January and 28 March 2020. We found that some countries (such as the USA, the UK and Canada) follow an exponential epidemic growth, while others (like Italy and several other European countries) show a power law like growth. Regardless of the best fitting law, many countries can be shown to follow a common trajectory that is similar to Italy (the epicentre at the time of analysis), but with varying degrees of delay. We found that countries with ‘younger’ epidemics, i.e. countries where the epidemic started more recently, tend to exhibit more exponential like behaviour, while countries that were closer behind Italy tend to follow a power law growth. We hypothesize that there is a universal growth pattern of this infection that starts off as exponential and subsequently becomes more power law like. Although it cannot be excluded that this growth pattern is a consequence of social distancing measures, an alternative explanation is that it is an intrinsic epidemic growth law, dictated by a spatially distributed community structure, where the growth in individual highly mixed communities is exponential but the longer term, local geographical spread (in the absence of global mixing) results in a power law. This is supported by computer simulations of a metapopulation model that gives rise to predictions about the growth dynamics that are consistent with correlations found in the epidemiological data. Therefore, seeing a deviation from straight exponential growth may be a natural progression of the epidemic in each country. On the practical side, this indicates that (i) even in the absence of strict social distancing interventions, exponential growth is not an accurate predictor of longer term infection spread, and (ii) a deviation from exponential spread and a reduction of estimated doubling times do not necessarily indicate successful interventions, which are instead indicated by a transition to a reduced power or by a deviation from power law behaviour.

Exponential growth impact of COVID-19 pandemic-world scenario, preventive measures and drug preferences (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aneesh Kumar K V
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Growth ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The Public ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

BACKGROUND The World Health Organization (WHO) declared 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020 and pandemic on 11 March 2020. As of today, 17 May 2020 around 3,16,520 death and 47,99,266 coronavirus infected cases are reported worldwide. There is about 26,25,463 active cases are now under treatment and several lakhs of people are under quarantine. Therefore, an attempt has been made to explain briefly about the characteristics of the virus, current review, COVID-19 symptoms, precautions, available vaccines etc. In addition, a case study was also conducted to provide the dangerous picture of drastic growth of infected people around the world during the span of time. OBJECTIVE World Health Organization (WHO) has announced the COVID-19 outbreak as a global public health emergency and pandemic, spreading fast with an increasing number of infected patients worldwide. At present, no vaccines are available for the treatment of patients with COVID_19 disease. A case study was conducted to provide the dangerous picture of exponential growth of infected people around the world to inculcate the awareness of maintaining social distancing and hand hygiene. This effort is made in view of providing awareness to the public effectively to understand and deal with the novel coronavirus situation worldwide. It is also anticipated to provide a reference to future advances in medical anti-virus related studies. METHODS A case study was conducted to provide the dangerous picture of exponential growth of infected people around the globe. For our study, we preferred five most coronavirus effected countries in the world viz., China, Itali, USA, Spain, India in the month of February and March 2020, and later extended to 17 May 2020. Based on the current published evidence, we precisely summarize the disease, characteristics of the virus, current world scenario, available treatment options and preventive measures to be taken against COVID-19. RESULTS Effort is made in view of providing awareness to the public effectively to understand and deal with the novel coronavirus situation worldwide.The medicines like Remdesivir, Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine, Ritonavir/Lopinavir and combined with Interferon beta are the experimental treatments currently being researched. Treatment with Lopinavir and Ritonavir or Chloroquine should be recommended in older patients with serious symptoms. The main risk factor of COVID-19 is travel and exposure to the virus. Lockdown, quarantine and thereby maintaining the ‘social distancing’ are the suitable method for controlling the out spread of coronavirus. Moreover, it is individual’s responsibility to take prompt measures to control the fast spreading of this virus disease. CONCLUSIONS The COVID-19 disease is spreading fast uncontrolled with an increasing number of infected patients worldwide. Our case study details the dangerous picture of exponential growth of infected people around the globe. The exact source, characteristics of the virus is unknown and no suitable drugs have been developed as of today. Symptomatic treatments are available and the list is provided, no need to panic. Conclusion is to inculcate the awareness of maintaining social distancing and hand hygiene. Anticipated to provide a reference to future advances in medical antivirus related studies.

Optimum Structure of the Banking Market: How Many Banks Are Necessary for Russia?

2006 ◽  
pp. 75-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Moiseev
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Optimum Structure ◽  
Population Number ◽  
The Third ◽  
Banking Market ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Empirical Analysis ◽  
Equilibrium Number

The number of classical banks in the world has reduced. In the majority of countries the number of banks does not exceed 200. The uniqueness of the Russian banking sector is that in this respect it takes the third place in the world after the USA and Germany. The paper reviews the conclusions of the economic theory about the optimum structure of the banking market. The empirical analysis shows that the number of banks in a country is influenced by the size of its territory, population number and GDP per capita. Our econometric estimate is that the equilibrium number of banks in Russia should be in a range of 180-220 units.

Russian Banking Sector under World Financial Market Uncertainty: Problems and Prospects

2008 ◽  
pp. 4-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Ulyukaev ◽  
E. Danilova
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Local Market ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Balanced Growth ◽  
Banking Sector Development ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa

The authors point out that the local market crisis - on the USA substandard loan market - has led to the uncertainty of the world financial market. It has caused the growing demand for liquidity in the framework of the world financial system. The Russian banking sector seems to be more stable under negative changes than banking systems of other emerging markets. At the same time one can assume that the crisis will become the factor of qualitative shift in the character of the Russian banking sector development - the shift from impetuous to more balanced growth.

9/11 and Armageddon: the Christian Right and George W. Bush

2003 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-50
Author(s):  
Göran Gunner
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Christian Right ◽  
Political Life ◽  
Religious Leader ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The World ◽  
Mega Church ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Jerry Falwell ◽  
High Degree

Authors from the Christian Right in the USA situate the September 11 attack on New York and Washington within God's intentions to bring America into the divine schedule for the end of the world. This is true of Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell, and other leading figures in the ‘Christian Coalition’. This article analyses how Christian fundamentalists assess the roles of the USA, the State of Israel, Islam, Iraq, the European Union and Russia within what they perceive to be the divine plan for the future of the world, especially against the background of ‘9/11’. It argues that the ideas of the Christian Right and of President George W. Bush coalesce to a high degree. Whereas before 9/11 many American mega-church preachers had aspirations to direct political life, after the events of that day the President assumes some of the roles of a mega-religious leader.

Sandra Ramos Revisited

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 32-54
Author(s):  
Silvia Spitta
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ancient Greek ◽  
Graphic Arts ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Political Choices ◽  
The Rich

Sandra Ramos (b. 1969) is one of the few artists to reflect critically on both sides of the Cuban di-lemma, fully embodying the etymological origins of the word in ancient Greek: di-, meaning twice, and lemma, denoting a form of argument involving a choice between equally unfavorable alternatives. Throughout her works she shines a light on the dilemmas faced by Cubans whether in Cuba or the United States, underlining the bad personal and political choices people face in both countries. During the hard 1990s, while still in Havana, the artist focused on the traumatic one-way journey into exile by thousands, as well as the experience of profound abandonment experienced by those who were left behind on the island. Today she lives in Miami and operates a studio there as well as one in Havana. Her initial disorientation in the USA has morphed into an acerbic representation and critique of the current administration and a deep concern with the environmental collapse we face. A buffoonlike Trumpito has joined el Bobo de Abela and Liborio in her gallery of comic characters derived from the rich Cuban graphic arts tradition where she was formed. While Cuba is now represented as a rotten cake with menacing flies hovering over it ready to pounce, a bombastic Trumpito marches across the world stage, trampling everything underfoot, a dollar sign for a face.

BIOASSAY CHARACTERISTICS OF INDIVIDUAL URINARY GONADOTROPHIN EXTRACTS

1963 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 214-224
Author(s):  
Raymond C. Mellinger ◽  
Jalileh A. Mansour ◽  
Richmond W. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Reference Material ◽  
Young Women ◽  
Reference Standard ◽  
General Acceptance ◽  
Modifying Factors ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The World ◽  
Quantitative Bioassay ◽  
Different Parts ◽  
Age And Sex

ABSTRACT A reference standard is widely sought for use in the quantitative bioassay of pituitary gonadotrophin recovered from urine. The biologic similarity of pooled urinary extracts obtained from large numbers of subjects, utilizing groups of different age and sex, preparing and assaying the materials by varying techniques in different parts of the world, has lead to a general acceptance of such preparations as international gonadotrophin reference standards. In the present study, however, the extract of pooled urine from a small number of young women is shown to produce a significantly different bioassay response from that of the reference materials. Gonadotrophins of individual subjects likewise varied from the multiple subject standards in many instances. The cause of these differences is thought to be due to the modifying influence of non-hormonal substances extracted from urine with the gonadotrophin and not necessarily to variations in the gonadotrophins themselves. Such modifying factors might have similar effects in a comparative assay of pooled extracts contributed by many subjects, but produce significant variations when material from individual subjects is compared. It is concluded that the expression of potency of a gonadotrophic extract in terms of pooled reference material to which it is not essentially similar may diminish rather than enhance the validity of the assay.

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