scholarly journals The pattern and trend of COVID-19 spread in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: Curve-fitting models estimation (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohannad Al Nsour ◽  
Haitham Majed Nazzal ◽  
Yousef Khader
Keyword(s):  
Curve Fitting ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Region ◽  
Estimation Procedure ◽  
Curve Estimation ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Data Points ◽  
Best Fit

BACKGROUND Curve fitting is used to find the "best fit" line or curve for a series of data points. It is the process of specifying the model that provides the best fit to the specific curves in the dataset. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to use the Curve Estimation Procedure to assess the pattern and trend of COVID-19 spread in the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) by finding the model best fit the observed COVID-19 data in each country between 20 February 2020 - 21 April 2020. METHODS The number of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases, recovered cases, and during the period 20 February 2020 - 21 April 2020 in 21 Eastern Mediterranean countries were extracted from the World Health Organization situation reports. The Curve Estimation procedure was used to produce different curve estimation regression models for the observed data in each country. A total of 11 regression models were tested and compared to find the model that best fits the COVID-19 data during the observed period for each country. RESULTS During this observed period, the total number of confirmed cases, recovered cases, and deaths in the region were 138673, 71343, and 6291, respectivly. The overall fatality rate in the region was 4.5%. The quadratic model (Y = b0 + (b1 * t) + (b2 * t**2) and the cubic model (Y = b0 + (b1 * t) + (b2 * t**2) + (b3 * t**3) follows the observed data points fairly well during the observed time period in five and nine countries, respectively. The exponential model (Y = b0 * (e**(b1 * t))), the growth model (Y = e**(b0 + (b1 * t))), and the compound model (Y = b0 * (b1**t)) were the best fit for data during the observed time period in two, three, and two countries, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The pattern of COVID-19 spread differed between countries in the EMR. This might reflect the variations in testing and implementation of public health measure for prevention and control. The best curve-fitting model was demonstrated for each country that can be used for making very short-term predictions.

scholarly journals Global Prevalence Estimates of Toxascaris leonina Infection in Dogs and Cats

Pathogens ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 503
Author(s):  
Ali Rostami ◽  
Seyed Mohammad Riahi ◽  
Vahid Fallah Omrani ◽  
Tao Wang ◽  
Andreas Hofmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Region ◽  
Global Prevalence ◽  
Stray Cats ◽  
Prevalence Estimates ◽  
Meta Regression ◽  
Paratenic Hosts ◽  
Toxascaris Leonina

Toxascaris leonina is an ascaridoid nematode of dogs and cats; this parasite affects the health of these animals. This study estimated the global prevalence of Ta. leonina infection in dogs and cats using random effects meta-analysis as well as subgroup, meta-regression and heterogeneity analyses. The data were stratified according to geographical region, the type of dogs and cats and environmental variables. A quantitative analysis of 135 published studies, involving 119,317 dogs and 25,364 cats, estimated prevalence rates of Ta. leonina in dogs and cats at 2.9% and 3.4%, respectively. Prevalence was highest in the Eastern Mediterranean region (7.2% for dogs and 10.0% for cats) and was significantly higher in stray dogs (7.0% vs. 1.5%) and stray cats (7.5% vs. 1.8%) than in pets. The findings indicate that, worldwide, ~26 million dogs and ~23 million cats are infected with Ta. leonina; these animals would shed substantial numbers of Ta. leonina eggs into the environment each year and might represent reservoirs of infection to other accidental or paratenic hosts. It is important that populations of dogs and cats as well as other canids and felids be monitored and dewormed for Ta. leonina and (other) zoonotic helminths.

scholarly journals Primary care healthcare policy implementation in the Eastern Mediterranean region; experiences of six countries: Part II

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Nagwa Nashat ◽  
Redouane Hadjij ◽  
Abdul Munem Al Dabbagh ◽  
Mohammed Rasoul Tarawneh ◽  
Huda Alduwaisan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Policy Implementation ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Region ◽  
Healthcare Policy

scholarly journals Correction to: A systematic review on hospital inefficiency in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: sources and solutions

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Ravaghi ◽  
Mahnaz Afshari ◽  
Parvaneh Isfahani ◽  
Victoria D. Bélorgeot
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Region ◽  
Original Publication

In the original publication of this article [1], one author’s name needs to be revised from Pavaneh Isfahani to Parvaneh Isfahani.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of Community Nutrition-Specific Interventions on Improving Malnutrition of Children under 5 Years of Age in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (15) ◽  
pp. 7844
Author(s):  
Delaram Ghodsi ◽  
Nasrin Omidvar ◽  
Bahareh Nikooyeh ◽  
Roshanak Roustaee ◽  
Elham Shakibazadeh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Region ◽  
Child Malnutrition ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Nutritional Status Of Children ◽  
Children Under 5

Childhood malnutrition remains an important public health and development problem in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to systematically review the community-based nutrition-specific interventions and their effectiveness and/or cost-effectiveness on the nutritional status of children under 5 years of age in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). A systematic literature search of the English electronic databases, including PubMed, Scopus, ISI Web of Knowledge, Ovid, EMBASE, as well as Persian databases (SID and Magiran) was performed up to May 2019. Studies regarding the effectiveness/cost-effectiveness of the community-based nutrition-specific programs and interventions targeted at under-five-year children in EMR countries were selected. The primary outcomes were mean of Weight-for-age z-score (WAZ), Height-for-Age z-score (HAZ), and Weight-for-Height z-score (WHZ) of children or prevalence of wasting, stunting, and/or underweight among the children. Meta-analysis was also performed on the selected articles and intervention effects (mean differences) were calculated for each outcome for each study and pooled using a weighted random effects model. Risk of bias (ROB) of each included study was assessed based on the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews. The study protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42020172643). Of 1036 identified studies, eight met the inclusion criteria. Amongst these, seven were from Pakistan and one from Iran. Only one study conducted in Pakistan reported the cost-effectiveness of nutrition-specific interventions in the region. Nutrition education/consultation and cash-based interventions were the most common nutrition-specific strategies used for management of child malnutrition in the EMR countries. Out of these eight studies, four were included in the meta-analysis. When different interventions were pooled, they had resulted in a significant improvement in WHZ of children (MD: 0.26; 95% CI: 0.07 to 0.46, three studies, I2 82.40%). Considering the high prevalence of child malnutrition in a number of countries in the region, capacity building and investigation regarding the implementation of new approaches to improve nutritional status of children and their effect(s) and cost-effectiveness assessment are highly recommended.

scholarly journals Are Countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region on Track towards Meeting the World Health Assembly Target for Anemia? A Review of Evidence

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 2449
Author(s):  
Ayoub Al-Jawaldeh ◽  
Mandy Taktouk ◽  
Radhouene Doggui ◽  
Zahra Abdollahi ◽  
Baseer Achakzai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Iron Deficiency ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Region ◽  
Reproductive Age ◽  
World Health ◽  
Deficiency Anemia ◽  
Micronutrient Deficiencies ◽  
World Health Assembly ◽  
The World

Anemia is a multifactorial condition, with a complex etiology that involves nutritional and non-nutritional factors. The misconception that iron deficiency is equivalent to anemia may mask the need to address other potential causative factors. This review paper aims to (1) assess the burden of anemia vs. iron deficiency anemia (IDA) amongst women of reproductive age (WRA), pregnant women (PW), and children under five years old (underfive children, U5C) in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR); (2) evaluate trends in anemia prevalence and whether countries are on track towards meeting the World Health Assembly (WHA) target for 2025; and (3) characterize anemia reduction efforts and provide a road map for future programs. A search of pertinent literature and databases was conducted. Anemia prevalence in the EMR ranged between 22.6% and 63% amongst PW, 27% and 69.6% amongst WRA, and 23.8% and 83.5% amongst U5C. Data showed that the EMR is not on course towards meeting the WHA target. The contribution of IDA to anemia was found to be less than half. Other potential contributors to anemia in the region were identified, including micronutrient deficiencies, parasitic infestations, and poor sanitation. A framework of action was proposed as a roadmap to meet the targets set by the WHA.

scholarly journals Identifying pathways for large-scale implementation of a school-based mental health programme in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: a theory-driven approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. ii112-ii123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olakunle Alonge ◽  
Anna Chiumento ◽  
Hesham M Hamoda ◽  
Eman Gaber ◽  
Zill-e- Huma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Region ◽  
Theory Of Change ◽  
Programme Implementation ◽  
School Based ◽  
Mental Health Programme ◽  
Health Programme

Abstract Globally there is a substantial burden of mental health problems among children and adolescents. Task-shifting/task-sharing mental health services to non-specialists, e.g. teachers in school settings, provide a unique opportunity for the implementation of mental health interventions at scale in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). There is scant information to guide the large-scale implementation of school-based mental health programme in LMICs. This article describes pathways for large-scale implementation of a School Mental Health Program (SMHP) in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). A collaborative learning group (CLG) comprising stakeholders involved in implementing the SMHP including policymakers, programme managers and researchers from EMR countries was established. Participants in the CLG applied the theory of change (ToC) methodology to identify sets of preconditions, assumptions and hypothesized pathways for improving the mental health outcomes of school-aged children in public schools through implementation of the SMHP. The proposed pathways were then validated through multiple regional and national ToC workshops held between January 2017 and September 2019, as the SMHP was being rolled out in three EMR countries: Egypt, Pakistan and Iran. Preconditions, strategies and programmatic/contextual adaptations that apply across these three countries were drawn from qualitative narrative summaries of programme implementation processes and facilitated discussions during biannual CLG meetings. The ToC for large-scale implementation of the SMHP in the EMR suggests that identifying national champions, formulating dedicated cross-sectoral (including the health and education sector) implementation teams, sustained policy advocacy and stakeholders engagement across multiple levels, and effective co-ordination among education and health systems especially at the local level are among the critical factors for large-scale programme implementation. The pathways described in this paper are useful for facilitating effective implementation of the SMHP at scale and provide a theory-based framework for evaluating the SMHP and similar programmes in the EMR and other LMICs.

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