SEIR and Regression Model-based COVID-19 outbreak predictions in India (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaurav Pandey
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Major Threat ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Government ◽  
Major Attention ◽  
Respiratory Droplets

UNSTRUCTURED COVID-19 pandemic has become a major threat to the country. To date, well-tested medication or antidote is not available to cure this disease. According to WHO reports, COVID-19 is a severe acute respiratory syndrome which is transmitted through respiratory droplets and contact routes. Analysis of this disease requires major attention by the Government to take necessary steps in reducing the effect of this global pandemic. In this study, outbreak of this disease has been analysed for India till 30th March 2020 and predictions have been made for the number of cases for the next 2 weeks. SEIR model and Regression model have been used for predictions based on the data collected from John Hopkins University repository in the time period of 30th January 2020 to 30th March 2020. The performance of the models was evaluated using RMSLE and achieved 1.52 for the SEIR model and 1.75 for the regression model. The RMSLE error rate between the SEIR model and a Regression model was found to be 2.01. Also, the value of R0 which is the spread of the disease was calculated to be 2.02. Expected cases may rise between 5000-6000 in the next two weeks of time. This study will help the Government and doctors in preparing their plans for the next two weeks. Based on the predictions for short-term intervals, these models can be tuned for forecasting in long-term intervals.

scholarly journals SEIR and Regression Model based COVID-19 outbreak predictions in India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajan Gupta ◽  
Gaurav Pandey ◽  
Poonam Chaudhary ◽  
Saibal Pal
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Major Threat ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Government ◽  
Major Attention ◽  
Respiratory Droplets

AbstractCOVID-19 pandemic has become a major threat to the country. Till date, well tested medication or antidote is not available to cure this disease. According to WHO reports, COVID-19 is a severe acute respiratory syndrome which is transmitted through respiratory droplets and contact routes. Analysis of this disease requires major attention by the Government to take necessary steps in reducing the effect of this global pandemic. In this study, outbreak of this disease has been analyzed for India till 30th March 2020 and predictions have been made for the number of cases for the next 2 weeks. SEIR model and Regression model have been used for predictions based on the data collected from John Hopkins University repository in the time period of 30th January 2020 to 30th March 2020. The performance of the models was evaluated using RMSLE and achieved 1.52 for SEIR model and 1.75 for the regression model. The RMSLE error rate between SEIR model and Regression model was found to be 2.01. Also, the value of R0 which is the spread of the disease was calculated to be 2.02. Expected cases may rise between 5000-6000 in the next two weeks of time. This study will help the Government and doctors in preparing their plans for the next two weeks. Based on the predictions for short-term interval, these models can be tuned for forecasting in long-term intervals.

scholarly journals The assessment of government incentives on savings, Hungary 2006–2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 71 (4) ◽  
pp. 569-585
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Life Insurance ◽  
Household Savings ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Government Incentives ◽  
The Government ◽  
Policy Incentives

Abstract This study analyses the effectiveness of government incentives on household savings in Hungary prior to the Covid pandemic and the ensuing economic turmoil. Time series pertaining to life insurance, voluntary pension savings, and long-term and short-term government bonds are tested in relation to government incentives. The novelty of this study is the test on complex mix of policy incentives and saving funds. The analysis applies the multiple breakpoint test and OLS regression, based on the behavioural life cycle hypothesis. The conclusion is that in the analysed time period the government incentives had a significant effect and promoted savings behaviour, with the exception of short-term government bonds.

Italy's politics without policy: Balancing Atlanticism and Europeanism in the Middle East

Modern Italy ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raffaella A. Del Sarto ◽  
Nathalie Tocci
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The United States ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Government ◽  
Specific Interests ◽  
Policy Shifts ◽  
The Eu

Focusing on Italy's Middle East policies under the second Berlusconi (2001–2006) and the second Prodi (2006–2008) governments, this article assesses the manner and extent to which the observed foreign policy shifts between the two governments can be explained in terms of the rebalancing between a ‘Europeanist’ and a transatlantic orientation. Arguing that Rome's policy towards the Middle East hinges less on Italy's specific interests and objectives in the region and more on whether the preference of the government in power is to foster closer ties to the United States or concentrate on the European Union, the analysis highlights how these swings of the pendulum along the EU–US axis are inextricably linked to a number of underlying structural weaknesses of Rome's foreign policy. In particular, the oscillations can be explained by the prevalence of short-term political (and domestic) considerations and the absence of long-term, substantive political strategies, or, in short, by the phenomenon of ‘politics without policy’ that often characterises Italy's foreign policy.

ON THE CONSUMPTION/DISTRIBUTION THEOREM UNDER THE LONG-RUN GROWTH CRITERION SUBJECT TO A DRAWDOWN CONSTRAINT

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (06) ◽  
pp. 931-957 ◽  
Author(s):  
MICHAEL J. KLASS ◽  
KRZYSZTOF NOWICKI
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Total Capital ◽  
Growth Criterion ◽  
Drawdown Constraint ◽  
Riskless Asset ◽  
Distribution Theorem

Consider any discrete time sequence of investment fortunes Fn which has a finite long-run growth rate [Formula: see text] when subject to the present value capital drawdown constraint Fne-rn ≥ λ* max 0≤k≤nFke-rk, where 0 ≤ λ* < 1, in the presence of a riskless asset affording a return of er dollars per time period per dollar invested. We show that money can be withdrawn for consumption from the invested capital without either reducing the long-run growth rate of such capital or violating the drawdown constraint for our capital sequence, while simultaneously increasing the amount of capital withdrawn for consumption at the identical long-term rate of V(r, λ*). We extend this result to an exponentially increasing number of consumption categories and discuss how additional yearly contributions can temporarily augment the total capital under management. In addition, we assess the short-term practicality of creating such an endowment/consumption/distribution program.

scholarly journals Colonization with Extensively Drug-Resistant Acinetobacter Baumannii and Prognosis in Critically Ill Patients: An Observational Cohort Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue Zheng ◽  
Nana Xu ◽  
Jiaojiao Pang ◽  
Hui Han ◽  
Hongna Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Acinetobacter Baumannii ◽  
Critically Ill ◽  
Critically Ill Patients ◽  
Drug Resistant ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Extensively Drug Resistant ◽  
Kaplan Meier

Abstract Background: Acinetobacter baumannii is one of the most often isolated opportunistic pathogens in intensive care units (ICUs). Extensively drug-resistant A. baumannii (XDR-AB) strains lack susceptibility to almost all antibiotics and pose a heavy burden on healthcare institutions. In this study, we evaluated the impact of XDR-AB colonization on both the short-term and long-term survival of critically ill patients.Methods: We prospectively enrolled patients from two adult ICUs in Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from April 2018 through December 2018. Using nasopharyngeal and perirectal swabs, we evaluated the presence of XDR-AB colonization. Participants were followed up for six months. Primary endpoints were 28-day and six-month mortality after ICU admission. For survival analysis, we used the Kaplan-Meier curve. We identified risk factors associated with 28-day and six-month mortality using the logistic regression model and Cox proportional-hazards survival regression model, respectively. Results: Out of 431 patients, 77 were colonized with XDR-AB. Based on the Kaplan-Meier curve results, the survival before 28 days did not differ by colonization status; however, a significant lower survival rate was obtained at six months in colonized patients. Univariate and multivariate results confirmed that XDR-AB colonization was not associated with 28-day mortality, but was an independent risk factor of lower survival days at six months, resulting in a 1.97 times higher risk of death at six months.Conclusions: XDR-AB colonization has no effect on short-term mortality but is associated with lower long-term survival in critically ill patients.

scholarly journals Implikasi Penerapan Undang-Undang Nomor 11 Tahun 2016 Tentang Pengampunan Pajak (Tax Amnesty) Dalam Meningkatkan Kepatuhan Wajib Pajak

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Agus Saiful Abib ◽  
Efi Yulistyowati ◽  
Amri Panahatan Sihotang
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Data ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Tax Amnesty ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Come ◽  
National Tax

<p>Tahun 2016, pemerintah mengeluarkan kembali kebijakan <em>Tax</em> <em>Amnesty </em>yang dituangkan dalam Undang-Undang Nomor 11 Tahun 2016 tentang Pengampunan Pajak. Pengampunan Pajak (<em>Tax</em> <em>Amnesty)</em> ini diharapkan dapat meningkatkan penerimaan pajak dalam jangka pendek melalui pembayaran uang tebusan, meningkatkan penerimaan pajak dalam jangka panjang melalui perluasan basis data pemajakan, meningkatkan kepatuhan Wajib Pajak, transisi ke sistem perpajakan baru yang lebih kuat dan adil, dan mendorong rekonsiliasi perpajakan nasional. Sehubungan dengan hal tersebut, untuk mengetahui apakah program <em>Tax</em> <em>Amnesty</em> Indonesia Tahun 2016 berhasil atau tidak, khususnya dalam meningkatkan kepatuhan wajib pajak, maka perlu dilakukan penelitian tentang : “Implikasi Penerapan Undang-Undang Nomor 11 Tahun 2016 tentang Pengampunan Pajak (<em>Tax</em> <em>Amnesty</em>) dalam Meningkatkan Kepatuhan Wajib Pajak”. Adapun permasalahan yang akan dibahas adalah bagaimana implikasi penerapan Undang-Undang Nomor 11 Tahun 2016 tentang Pengampunan Pajak<em> (Tax</em> <em>Amnesty)</em> dalam meningkatkan kepatuhan Wajib Pajak ? Berdasarkan implikasi tersebut, maka bagaimana sebaiknya pengaturan perpajakan yang akan datang ? Berdasarkan permasalahan tersebut jenis penelitian ini adalah yuridis normatif yang akan dikaji dengan pendekatan perundang-undangan, spesifikasi penelitiannya diskriptif analitis, data yang dipergunakan data sekunder, yang dianalisis secara kualitatif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa implikasi penerapan Undang-Undang Nomor 11 Tahun 2016 tentang Pengampunan Pajak<em> (Tax</em> <em>Amnesty)</em> dapat meningkatkan kepatuhan Wajib Pajak, dan berdasarkan implikasi tersebut SE Dirjen Pajak No. SE - 06/PJ/2017 seharusnya tidak hanya untuk tahun pajak 2017 saja, tetapi juga untuk tahun-tahun yang akan datang. Di samping itu perlu ada peraturan yang mengatur tentang pengawasan terhadap pelaksanaan hak Wajib Pajak.</p><pre>In 2016, the government re-issue the Tax Amnesty policy as outlined in Law Number 11 Year 2016 on Tax Amnesty. The Tax Amnesty is expected to increase tax revenue in the short term through ransom payments, increase tax revenues over the long term through the expansion of taxation databases, increase taxpayer compliance, transition to a stronger and more just tax system, and encourage national tax reconciliation. In relation to this matter, to find out whether the program of Tax Amnesty Indonesia Year 2016 succeed or not, especially in increasing taxpayer compliance, it is necessary to do research on: "Implications Implementation of Law Number 11 Year 2016 on Tax Amnesty in Improving Taxpayer Compliance ". The problem to be discussed is how the implications of the implementation of Law Number 11 Year 2016 on Tax Amendment (Tax Amnesty) in improving taxpayer compliance? Based on these implications, then how should the taxation arrangements to come? Based on the problem, this type of research is normative juridical which will be studied with the approach of legislation, the analytical descriptive research specification, the data used secondary data, which analyzed qualitatively. The result of the research shows that the implication of the implementation of Law Number 11 Year 2016 on Tax Amnesty can improve Taxpayer compliance, and based on the implication of SE Dirjen Pajak No. SE - 06 / PJ / 2017 should not only be for the fiscal year 2017 alone, but also for the years to come. In addition, there should be a regulation that regulates the supervision of the implementation of taxpayers' rights.</pre>

Long-Term Growth and Short-Term Policy

1964 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
pp. 26-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. A. H. Godley ◽  
J. R. Shepherd
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
The Other ◽  
High Wage ◽  
Short Term ◽  
High Unemployment ◽  
The Government ◽  
Wage Increases

One of the main aims of short-term economic policy in Britain has been to regulate the pressure of demand for labour, and to keep the fluctuations of the unemployment percentage within fairly narrow limits. High unemployment is obviously undesirable; at the other end of the scale, if the pressure of demand for labour is too strong, this tends to lead to excessively high wage increases and to balance of payments difficulties. It is for the Government to decide at what pressure it wishes to run the economy, and to try to keep it there.

The effect of the financing structure on the return on the market share in Saudi companies An Empirical Study: أثر هيكل التمويل على عائد السهم السوقي في الشركات السعودية: دراسة تطبيقية

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatimah Mohammad Asiri
Keyword(s):  
Market Share ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Analytical Approach ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Financing Structure ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Comprehensive Survey ◽  
Study Population

The study aimed to identify the influence of the financing structure on the return of the market share in Saudi corporations/companies. The study applied the descriptive-analytical approach, and the study population consisted of some joint-stock companies in the Saudi stock market, where the study sample consisted of (75) companies in five productive sectors where concentration was made on the following sectors: (basic materials, long-term commodities, energy, food production, capital goods). Method of the comprehensive survey was used for all companies. The data was analyzed using the Panel Data method through the STATA program. The study concluded several findings, the most important of which are that short-term debt (liabilities) have a negative impact on the return on the market share, as increasing short debts (liabilities) lead to a decrease in the return on the market share, and that long-term debt (liabilities) have no effect on the return on the market share, and equity has a negative impact on the return on the market share, as the increase in financing through equity leads to a decrease in the return on the market share. The study recommended the necessity of diversification between sources of financing and not limited to debt and long & short-term liabilities only. It also recommended conducting such a study on other sectors or conducting it on the whole market which may result in improving results, and also recommends expanding the time period more than five years, which may lead to improve results.

Agricultural Drought in North-Central Mexico

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Alfredo Rodríguez-Pineda ◽  
Lorrain Giddings
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Natural Phenomenon ◽  
North Central ◽  
Water Policies ◽  
The North ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Northern Half ◽  
The Government

Drought is the most significant natural phenomenon that affects the agriculture of northern Mexico. The more drought-prone areas in Mexico fall in the northern half of the country, in the states of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Zacatecas, and Aguascalientes (figure 10.1). The north-central states form part of the Altiplanicie Mexicana and account for 30.7% of the national territory of 1,959,248 km2. This area is characterized by dry and semidry climates (Garcia, 1981) and recurrent drought periods. The climate of Mexico varies from very dry to subhumid. Very dry climate covers 21%, dry climate covers 28%, and temperate subhumid and hot subhumid climates prevail in 21% and 23% of the national territory, respectively. About 20 years ago, almost 75% of Mexico’s agricultural land was rainfed, and only 25% irrigated (Toledo et al., 1985), making the ratio of rainfed to irrigated area equal to 3. However, for the northern states this ratio was 3.5 during the 1990–98 period (table 10.1). Because of higher percentage of rain-fed agriculture, drought is a common phenomenon in this region, which has turned thousands of hectares of land into desert. Though the government has built dams, reservoirs, and other irrigation systems to alleviate drought effects, rain-fed agriculture (or dryland farming) remains the major form of cultivation in Mexico. In Mexico, there is no standard definition for agricultural drought. However, the Comisión Nacional del Agua (CNA; i.e., National Water Commission), which is a federal agency responsible for making water policies, has coined its own definition for drought. This agency determines whether a particular region has been affected by drought, by studying rainfall records collected from the national climatic network. The national climatic network is spread throughout the country and is managed by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN; i.e., National Meteorological Services). The CNA determines, for a municipal region, if the rainfall is equal to or less than one standard deviation from the long-term mean over a time period of two or more consecutive months. If it is, then the secretary of state declares drought for the region.

scholarly journals The Long-Run Determinants of Indian Government Bond Yields

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 168-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanweer Akram ◽  
Anupam Das
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indian Government ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Key Driver ◽  
The Government

This paper investigates the long-term determinants of the nominal yields of Indian government bonds (IGBs). It examines whether John Maynard Keynes’ supposition that the short-term interest rate is the key driver of the long-term government bond yield holds over the long run, after controlling for key economic factors. It also appraises if the government fiscal variable has an adverse effect on government bond yields over the long run. The models estimated in this paper show that in India the short-term interest rate is the key driver of the long-term government bond yield over the long run. However, the government debt ratio does not have any discernible adverse effect on IGB yields over the long run. These findings will help policy makers to (i) use information on the current trend of the short-term interest rate and other key macro variables to form their long-term outlook about IGB yields, and (ii) understand the policy implications of the government's fiscal stance.

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