scholarly journals Mathematical Modelling to Assess the Impact of Lockdown on COVID-19 Transmission in India: Model Development and Validation (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bakiya Ambikapathy ◽  
Kamalanand Krishnamurthy
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Intervention Strategy ◽  
World Health ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Heavy Burden ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
In Transit ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND The World Health Organization has declared the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) to be a public health emergency; at present, India is facing a major threat of community spread. We developed a mathematical model for investigating and predicting the effects of lockdown on future COVID-19 cases with a specific focus on India. OBJECTIVE The objective of this work was to develop and validate a mathematical model and to assess the impact of various lockdown scenarios on COVID-19 transmission in India. METHODS A model consisting of a framework of ordinary differential equations was developed by incorporating the actual reported cases in 14 countries. After validation, the model was applied to predict COVID-19 transmission in India for different intervention scenarios in terms of lockdown for 4, 14, 21, 42, and 60 days. We also assessed the situations of enhanced exposure due to aggregation of individuals in transit stations and shopping malls before the lockdown. RESULTS The developed model is efficient in predicting the number of COVID-19 cases compared to the actual reported cases in 14 countries. For India, the model predicted marked reductions in cases for the intervention periods of 14 and 21 days of lockdown and significant reduction for 42 days of lockdown. Such intervention exceeding 42 days does not result in measurable improvement. Finally, for the scenario of “panic shopping” or situations where there is a sudden increase in the factors leading to higher exposure to infection, the model predicted an exponential transmission, resulting in failure of the considered intervention strategy. CONCLUSIONS Implementation of a strict lockdown for a period of at least 21 days is expected to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. However, a further extension of up to 42 days is required to significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19 in India. Any relaxation in the lockdown may lead to exponential transmission, resulting in a heavy burden on the health care system in the country.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modelling to Assess the Impact of Lockdown on COVID-19 Transmission in India: Model Development and Validation

10.2196/19368 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. e19368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bakiya Ambikapathy ◽  
Kamalanand Krishnamurthy
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Intervention Strategy ◽  
World Health ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Heavy Burden ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
In Transit ◽  
The Impact

Background The World Health Organization has declared the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) to be a public health emergency; at present, India is facing a major threat of community spread. We developed a mathematical model for investigating and predicting the effects of lockdown on future COVID-19 cases with a specific focus on India. Objective The objective of this work was to develop and validate a mathematical model and to assess the impact of various lockdown scenarios on COVID-19 transmission in India. Methods A model consisting of a framework of ordinary differential equations was developed by incorporating the actual reported cases in 14 countries. After validation, the model was applied to predict COVID-19 transmission in India for different intervention scenarios in terms of lockdown for 4, 14, 21, 42, and 60 days. We also assessed the situations of enhanced exposure due to aggregation of individuals in transit stations and shopping malls before the lockdown. Results The developed model is efficient in predicting the number of COVID-19 cases compared to the actual reported cases in 14 countries. For India, the model predicted marked reductions in cases for the intervention periods of 14 and 21 days of lockdown and significant reduction for 42 days of lockdown. Such intervention exceeding 42 days does not result in measurable improvement. Finally, for the scenario of “panic shopping” or situations where there is a sudden increase in the factors leading to higher exposure to infection, the model predicted an exponential transmission, resulting in failure of the considered intervention strategy. Conclusions Implementation of a strict lockdown for a period of at least 21 days is expected to reduce the transmission of COVID-19. However, a further extension of up to 42 days is required to significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19 in India. Any relaxation in the lockdown may lead to exponential transmission, resulting in a heavy burden on the health care system in the country.

Novel Coronavirus 2019 Outbreak: A Global Epidemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (12) ◽  
pp. 1458-1464
Author(s):  
Sweta Kamboj ◽  
Rohit Kamboj ◽  
Shikha Kamboj ◽  
Kumar Guarve ◽  
Rohit Dutt
Keyword(s):  
World Health ◽  
Upper Respiratory Tract ◽  
Global Epidemic ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Government ◽  
Tract Disease ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Background: In the 1960s, the human coronavirus was designated, which is responsible for the upper respiratory tract disease in children. Back in 2003, mainly 5 new coronaviruses were recognized. This study directly pursues to govern knowledge, attitude and practice of viral and droplet infection isolation safeguard among the researchers during the outbreak of the COVID-19. Introduction: Coronavirus is a proteinaceous and infectious pathogen. It is an etiological agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Coronavirus, appeared in China from the seafood and poultry market last year, which has spread in various countries, and has caused several deaths. Methods: The literature data has been taken from different search platforms like PubMed, Science Direct, Embase, Web of Science, who.int portal and complied. Results: Corona virology study will be more advanced and outstanding in recent years. COVID-19 epidemic is a threatening reminder not solely for one country but all over the universe. Conclusion: In this review article, we encapsulated the pathogenesis, geographical spread of coronavirus worldwide, also discussed the perspective of diagnosis, effective treatment, and primary recommendations by the World Health Organization, and guidelines of the government to slow down the impact of the virus are also optimistic, efficacious and obliging for the public health. However, it will take a prolonged time in the future to overcome this epidemic.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modelling, Simulation, and Optimal Control of the 2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amira Rachah ◽  
Delfim F. M. Torres
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Optimal Control ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
World Health ◽  
Multiple Shooting ◽  
Multiple Shooting Method ◽  
Major Outbreak ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Spread Of Infection ◽  
The Impact

The Ebola virus is currently one of the most virulent pathogens for humans. The latest major outbreak occurred in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia in 2014. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the virus and simulate it. In this paper, we begin by studying a simple mathematical model that describes the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Liberia. Then, we use numerical simulations and available data provided by the World Health Organization to validate the obtained mathematical model. Moreover, we develop a new mathematical model including vaccination of individuals. We discuss different cases of vaccination in order to predict the effect of vaccination on the infected individuals over time. Finally, we apply optimal control to study the impact of vaccination on the spread of the Ebola virus. The optimal control problem is solved numerically by using a direct multiple shooting method.

scholarly journals The Role of Micronutrients to Support Immunity for COVID-19 Prevention

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mukhtar H. Ahmed ◽  
Arez Hassan ◽  
Judit Molnár
Keyword(s):  
Immune System ◽  
Healing Process ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
The Body ◽  
World Health ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Food Sources ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe World Health Organization declared the novel coronavirus, named as SARS-CoV-2, as a global pandemic in early 2020 after the disease spread to more than 180 countries leading to tens of thousands of cases and many deaths within a couple of months. Consequently, this paper aims to summarize the evidence for the relationships between nutrition and the boosting of the immune system in the fight against the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. This review, in particular, assesses the impact of vitamin and mineral supplements on the body’s defence mechanisms against SARS-CoV-2. The results revealed that there is a strong relationship between the ingestion of biological ingredients like vitamins C–E, and minerals such as zinc, and a reduction in the effects of coronavirus infection. These can be received from either nutrition rich food sources or from vitamin supplements. Furthermore, these macromolecules might have roles to play in boosting the immune response, in the healing process and the recovery time. Hence, we recommend that eating healthy foods rich in vitamins C–E with zinc and flavonoids could boost the immune system and consequently protect the body from serious infections. Graphical Abstract

scholarly journals Online Survey of the Impact of COVID-19 Risk and Cost Estimates on Worry and Health Behavior Compliance in Young Adults

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriella Imbriano ◽  
Emmett M. Larsen ◽  
Daniel M. Mackin ◽  
Akaisha Kaixuan An ◽  
Christian C. Luhmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Behaviors ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
World Health ◽  
Cost Estimates ◽  
Social And Emotional ◽  
State Worry ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

The novel coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic is associated with elevated rates of anxiety and relatively lower compliance with public health guidelines in younger adults. To develop strategies for reducing anxiety and increasing adherence with health guidelines, it is important to understand the factors that contribute to anxiety and health compliance in the context of COVID-19. Earlier research has shown that greater perceived risk of negative events and their costs are associated with increased anxiety and compliance with health behaviors, but it is unclear what role they play in a novel pandemic surrounded by uncertainty. In the present study we measured (1) perceived risk as the self-reported probability of being infected and experiencing serious symptoms due to COVID-19 and (2) perceived cost as financial, real-world, physical, social, and emotional consequences of being infected with COVID-19. Worry was assessed using the Penn State Worry Questionnaire (PWSQ) and health compliance was measured as endorsement of the World Health Organization (WHO) health directives for COVID-19. Our results showed that greater perceived risk and costs of contracting the COVID-19 virus were associated with greater worry and while only costs were associated with greater compliance with health behaviors. Neither self-reported worry nor its interaction with cost estimates was associated with increased engagement in health behaviors. Our results provide important insight into decision making mechanisms involved in both increased anxiety and health compliance in COVID-19 and have implications for developing psychoeducational and psychotherapeutic strategies to target both domains.

scholarly journals Male fertility concerns during COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 55-58
Author(s):  
Sutapa Mukherjee
Keyword(s):  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Age And Gender ◽  
Gender Biases ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Male Reproductive Health ◽  
The Impact

Since its incidence in December 2019, the novel coronavirus, named “Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2” (SARS-CoV-2), has undergone excessively rapid human-to-human transmission throughout the globe and remains still unabated. The worldwide uncontrolled expansion of the disease coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pursued the World Health Organization to declare it a pandemic on March 11, 2020. The untiring efforts of scientists, clinicians, and researchers have increased our awareness about the pathophysiology of COVID-19 although much of it is shrouded with ambiguity. The wide spectrum of the disease in terms of severity, mortality, age and gender biases, physiological manifestations, and responses adds up to the complications. Of particular concern is the impact of COVID-19 on male reproductive health and fertility outcomes. The present article discusses some of the emerging multiple facets rendering the male reproductive system vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 infection and/or associated pathological mechanisms.

scholarly journals ASSESS THE AWARENESS AND ATTITUDE REGARDING PREVENTION OF CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019

2020 ◽  
pp. 95-98
Author(s):  
SAHBANATHUL MISSRIYA MA ◽  
SUHAIL HASSAN
Keyword(s):  
Negative Attitude ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
World Health ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Public Authorities ◽  
The People ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Objective: Coronavirus disease is the first pandemic caused by a novel coronavirus. The World Health Organization announced a name for the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This epidemic must stop, contain, control, delay, and reduce the impact of this virus by the people at every opportunity. Every person has the responsibility to contribute, to protect themselves, to protect others, whether in the home, the community, the health-care system, the workplace, or in the transport system. The study was aimed to assess the level of awareness and attitude regarding the prevention of novel coronavirus disease among people and to associate the knowledge level about the prevention of novel coronavirus disease with selected demographic variables of people. Methods: A cross-sectional descriptive design was adopted. Using a convenient sampling technique, 950 samples were selected. The data were collected, analyzed in terms of both descriptive, and inferential statistics. Results: The study results showed that among the total number of people (950) surveyed, 499 (52.6%) were having poor knowledge, whereas 348 (36.6%) were having an average level of knowledge and 103 (10.8%) were showing good knowledge regarding prevention of COVID-19. Some of the people (40.7%) had a negative attitude on the overall aspects of COVID-19 prevention. Conclusion: The study concluded that there were inadequate awareness and poor attitude among the people about coronavirus diseases, and hence there is a need to create awareness through campaigns by public authorities and media.

scholarly journals CORONA VIRUS OUTBREAK AND IT’S IMPACT ON THE GLOBAL PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES

2020 ◽  
pp. 11-14
Author(s):  
Vikas Sharma ◽  
Chandana Majee ◽  
Rahul Kaushik ◽  
Divya Sharma ◽  
Sunita Kumari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Direct Contact ◽  
Preventive Measure ◽  
World Health ◽  
Infected Person ◽  
The World ◽  
Pharmaceutical Industries ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact ◽  
General Wellbeing

There is another general wellbeing emergencies undermining the world with the rise and spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) or the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The infection started in bats and was transmitted to people through yet obscure go-between creatures in Wuhan, Hubei territory, China in December 2019. There are more than 48,15,484 infected cases all around the globe. This can be transmitted from one to another very quickly only by coughing or sneezing or direct contact with infected person. World Health Organization also has stated that there is no future course of this virus is available till now. As a preventive measure the complete stop on outgoings i.e. lockdown is surrendered. The lockdown all over the country or all around the globe is becoming a huge crisis for the economy and of countries the life cycle of the humans. The lockdown has affected all the businesses, works, private sectors as well as government sectors. The impact of lockdown on the pharmaceutical industries can be a great boon if its taken positively. Keywords: coronavirus, SARS-CoV 2, wuhan, transmitted, crisis, lockdown, impact.

scholarly journals Impact of lockdown measures in abating the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons from India’s phased approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
R Singh ◽  
K Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Public ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) constituted a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020 and characterized the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) as a pandemic on 11 March 2020. India enacted such measures early on for effective mitigation and suppression to reduce community transmission, including an onerous national lockdown. The impact of the health system governance is quite apparent among all stakeholders including the public in such emergency contexts. Methods We compiled the daily data on the number of COVID-19 cases, recoveries and deaths from January 30th until June 16th, 2020. Different stages were categorized from post PHEIC declaration (pre-lockdown) phase to lockdown phases and unlocking phase as implemented. The several measures adopted by the national government were structured in four broad categories as Governance and socioeconomic, travel restrictions, lockdown and public health measures. These measures were compared during each phase. Results It was revealed that while the cases are rising the phased restrictions has helped in delaying the peak and remarkably interrupted the rate of transmission. The national average doubling rate was 3 days at the beginning which improved to 22 days. The basic reproduction number remained close to 1 during the last week of lockdown. However, the initial interruption of needed aid and technical support had negative social and economic impacts on the affected population. Conclusions As the situation abates following the measures adopted by the government, an articulate strategy of unlocking through increased testing and prompt isolation needs to be developed for more effective reduction and protecting the livelihoods allowing to further relax the lockdown measures. Key messages There is need for the local government to consider a strategic easing of the lockdown for protecting the rights of the most affected population. As the transmission rates are low, the easing of lockdown can be benefited from improved testing and prompt isolation.

scholarly journals A Study on Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Primary, Secondary and Tertiary Sectors of Indian Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
World Health ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
The Social ◽  
Political Dimensions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

COVID-19 emerged in China in December. The World Health Organization declares this virus as Global Disaster in March. The coronavirus has affected the social, economic, political dimensions of the nations globally. In this study, the authors consider the impact of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) on the different activities of primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors of the Indian Economy and various policies and reforms have been taken by the government. The secondary data is collected to put down this literature. Each sector of the economy faces chaos due to coronavirus. Migrant workers or laborers go to their state in the lockdown, a ban on materials, electronics imported from china, supply chain disruption, disturbance in the cash flow are some of the majors' reasons that lead to the uncertainty in different sectors. A fund issued by the Government can be utilized effectively to give benefits to employees, workers, farmers, organizations, and industries.

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