scholarly journals Capture-Recapture Among Men Who Have Sex With Men and Among Female Sex Workers in 11 Towns in Uganda (Preprint)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Apodaca ◽  
Reena Hemendra Doshi ◽  
Moses Ogwal ◽  
Herbert Kiyingi ◽  
George Aluzimbi ◽  
...  

BACKGROUND Key populations at higher risk for HIV infection, including people who inject drugs, men who have sex with men (MSM), and female sex workers (FSWs), are disproportionately affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Empirical estimates of their population sizes are necessary for HIV program planning and monitoring. Such estimates, however, are lacking for most of Uganda’s urban centers. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to estimate the number of FSWs and MSM in select locations in Uganda. METHODS We utilized conventional 2-source capture-recapture (CRC) to estimate the population of FSWs in Mbale, Jinja, Wakiso, Mbarara, Gulu, Kabarole, Busia, Tororo, Masaka, and Kabale and the population of MSM in Mbale, Jinja, Wakiso, Mbarara, Gulu, Kabarole, and Mukono from June to August 2017. Hand mirrors and key chains were distributed to FSWs and MSM, respectively, by peers during capture 1. A week later, different FSWs and MSM distributors went to the same towns to collect data for the second capture. Population size estimates and 95% CIs were calculated using the CRC Simple Interactive Statistical Analysis. RESULTS We estimated the population of FSWs and MSM using 2 different recapture definitions: those who could present the object or identify the object from a set of photos. The most credible (closer to global estimates of MSM; 3%-5%) estimates came from those who presented the objects only. The FSW population in Mbale was estimated to be 693 (95% CI 474-912). For Jinja, Mukono, Busia, and Tororo, we estimated the number of FSWs to be 802 (95% CI 534-1069), 322 (95% CI 300-343), 961 (95% CI 592-1330), and 2872 (95% CI 0-6005), respectively. For Masaka, Mbarara, Kabale, and Wakiso, we estimated the FSWs population to be 512 (95% CI 384-639), 1904 (95% CI 1058-2749), 377 (95% CI 247-506), and 828 (95% CI 502-1152), respectively. For Kabarole and Gulu, we estimated the FSWs population to be 397 (95% CI 325-469) and 1425 (95% CI 893-1958), respectively. MSM estimates were 381 (95% CI 299-462) for Mbale, 1100 (95% CI 351-1849) for Jinja, 368 (95% CI 281-455) for Wakiso, 322 (95% CI 253-390) for Mbarara, 180 (95% CI 170-189) for Gulu, 335 (95% CI 258-412) for Kabarole, and 264 (95% CI 228-301) for Mukono. CONCLUSIONS The CRC activity was one of the first to be carried out in Uganda to obtain small town–level population sizes for FSWs and MSM. We found that it is feasible to use FSW and MSM peers for this activity, but proper training and standardized data collection tools are essential to minimize bias.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne F. McIntyre ◽  
Ian E. Fellows ◽  
Steve Gutreuter ◽  
Wolfgang Hladik

BACKGROUND Capture-recapture is often used to estimate the size of populations at risk for HIV, including female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and people who inject drugs. These population size estimates are critical in determining resource allocation for HIV services geared toward these communities. OBJECTIVE Compared to the commonly used two-source capture-recapture, capture-recapture relying on three (or more) samples can provide more robust PSE but involve far more complex statistical analysis. shinyrecap is designed to provide a user-friendly interface for the field epidemiologist. METHODS shinyrecap is built on the Shiny web application framework for R. This allows it to seamlessly integrate with the sophisticated CRC statistical packages. Additionally, the application may be accessed online or run locally on the user’s machine. RESULTS The application enables users to engage in sample size calculation based on a simulation framework. It assists in the proper formatting of collected data by providing a tool to convert commonly used formats to that used by analysis software. A wide variety of methodologies are supported by the analysis tool, including log-linear, Bayesian model averaging, and Bayesian latent class models. For each methodology, diagnostics and model checking interfaces are provided. CONCLUSIONS Through a use case, we demonstrate the broad utility of this powerful tool with three-source capture-recapture data to produce population size estimation for female sex workers in a subnational unit of a country in sub-Saharan Africa.


10.2196/12316 ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. e12316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Apodaca ◽  
Reena Hemendra Doshi ◽  
Moses Ogwal ◽  
Herbert Kiyingi ◽  
George Aluzimbi ◽  
...  

AIDS ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 24 (Suppl 2) ◽  
pp. S45-S54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ziyad Mahfoud ◽  
Rema Afifi ◽  
Sami Ramia ◽  
Danielle El Khoury ◽  
Kassem Kassak ◽  
...  

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document