scholarly journals Improved Real-Time Influenza Surveillance: Using Internet Search Data in Eight Latin American Countries (Preprint)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Clemente ◽  
Fred Lu ◽  
Mauricio Santillana
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Influenza Surveillance ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Internet Search ◽  
Search Activity ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Latin American Countries

BACKGROUND Novel influenza surveillance systems that leverage Internet-based real-time data sources including Internet search frequencies, social-network information, and crowd-sourced flu surveillance tools have shown improved accuracy over the past few years in data-rich countries like the United States. These systems not only track flu activity accurately, but they also report flu estimates a week or more ahead of the publication of reports produced by healthcare-based systems, such as those implemented and managed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Previous work has shown that the predictive capabilities of novel flu surveillance systems, like Google Flu Trends (GFT), in developing countries in Latin America have not yet delivered acceptable flu estimates. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to show that recent methodological improvements on the use of Internet search engine information to track diseases can lead to improved retrospective flu estimates in multiple countries in Latin America. METHODS A machine learning-based methodology that uses flu-related Internet search activity and historical information to monitor flu activity, named ARGO (AutoRegression with Google search), was extended to generate flu predictions for 8 Latin American countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay) for the time period: January 2012 to December of 2016. These retrospective (out-of-sample) Influenza activity predictions were compared with historically observed flu suspected cases in each country, as reported by Flunet, an influenza surveillance database maintained by the World Health Organization. For a baseline comparison, retrospective (out-of-sample) flu estimates were produced for the same time period using autoregressive models that only leverage historical flu activity information. RESULTS Our results show that ARGO-like models’ predictive power outperform autoregressive models in 6 out of 8 countries in the 2012-2016 time period. Moreover, ARGO significantly improves on historical flu estimates produced by the now discontinued GFT for the time period of 2012-2015, where GFT information is publicly available. CONCLUSIONS We demonstrate here that a self-correcting machine learning method, leveraging Internet-based disease-related search activity and historical flu trends, has the potential to produce reliable and timely flu estimates in multiple Latin American countries. This methodology may prove helpful to local public health officials who design and implement interventions aimed at mitigating the effects of influenza outbreaks. Our methodology generally outperforms both the now-discontinued tool GFT, and autoregressive methodologies that exploit only historical flu activity to produce future disease estimates.

scholarly journals Improved real-time influenza surveillance using Internet search data in eight Latin American countries

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Clemente ◽  
Fred Lu ◽  
Mauricio Santillana
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Influenza Surveillance ◽  
Machine Learning Method ◽  
Learning Method ◽  
Search Activity ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Search Data ◽  
Latin American Countries

AbstractA real-time methodology for monitoring flu activity in middle income countries that is simultaneously accurate and generalizable has not yet been presented. We demonstrate here that a self-correcting machine learning method leveraging Internet-based search activity produces reliable and timely flu estimates in multiple Latin American countries.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Mortality Rate and Its Incidence in Latin America: Dependence on Demographic and Economic Variables

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 6900
Author(s):  
Javier Cifuentes-Faura
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Latin American Countries ◽  
Quality Infrastructure

The pandemic caused by COVID-19 has left millions infected and dead around the world, with Latin America being one of the most affected areas. In this work, we have sought to determine, by means of a multiple regression analysis and a study of correlations, the influence of population density, life expectancy, and proportion of the population in vulnerable employment, together with GDP per capita, on the mortality rate due to COVID-19 in Latin American countries. The results indicated that countries with higher population density had lower numbers of deaths. Population in vulnerable employment and GDP showed a positive influence, while life expectancy did not appear to significantly affect the number of COVID-19 deaths. In addition, the influence of these variables on the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 was analyzed. It can be concluded that the lack of resources can be a major burden for the vulnerable population in combating COVID-19 and that population density can ensure better designed institutions and quality infrastructure to achieve social distancing and, together with effective measures, lower death rates.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in Latin America: a first glance to the mortality

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nubia Muñoz
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Death Toll ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
The Us ◽  
Latin American Countries

It is too early to know which will be the final death toll from the Covid-19 or SARS-CoV-2 virus epidemy in Latin America since the epidemy is still active and we will not know when it will end. The curve for new infections and deaths has not reached yet a peak (Figure 1). In addition, we know little about the epidemiology of this new virus. The daily litany of the number of people infected with the number of admissions to hospitals and intensive care units and the number of deaths guides health authorities to plan health services and politicians to gauge the degree of confinement necessary to control the transmission of the virus, but it says little about the magnitude of the problem if we do not relate it to the population at risk. At the end of the pandemic, we will be able to estimate age-standardized death rates for the different countries, but until then the crude death rates will provide a first glance or snapshot of the death toll and impact of the pandemic from March to May 2020. These rates are well below those estimated in other countries in Europe and North America: Belgium (82.6), Spain (58.0), the United Kingdom (57.5), Italy (55.0), France (42.9), Sweden (41.4), and the US (30.7). (Johns Hopkins CSSE, May 30, 2020). However, in the European countries and the US the number of deaths has reached a peak, while this is not the case in Latin American countries. (Figure 1). It should be taken into account that the above rates are crude and therefore, some of the differences could be due to the fact that European countries have a larger proportion of the population over 70 years of age in whom higher mortality rates have been reported.

Latin America and the Socio-Economic Impact of the Cuban Revolution

1962 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro C. M. Teichert
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Cuban Revolution ◽  
Good Neighbor Policy ◽  
Socio Economic Impact ◽  
Imminent Threat ◽  
Good Neighbor ◽  
The Military ◽  
Latin American Countries

The Cuban revolution has profoundly shaken the economic and political foundation traditional in most of the 20 Latin American republics. The demand by the rest of Latin America for Cuban type reforms has also required a reappraisal of U. S.-Latin American relations, which with the breaking off of diplomatic intercourse between Cuba and the U. S., January 4, 1961, have reached their lowest point since the initiation in the mid 1930's of the Good Neighbor Policy by President Roosevelt. Furthermore, the spread of the Cuban revolution, with its ideals and aspirations for the fulfilment of the age-old political, social, and economic aspirations of the downtrodden masses, is now an imminent threat for the remaining undemocratic Latin American governments. There is no denying the fact that most Latin American countries are still run by an oligarchy of landlords and the military.

Leadership Training in Latin America

1993 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-17
Author(s):  
Alice B. Lentz
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Leadership Training ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Business Leaders ◽  
Private Higher Education ◽  
Enterprise Growth ◽  
The University ◽  
Latin American Countries

Alice Lentz offers a brief view of the role of the Americas Fund for Independent Universities (AFIU) in relation to significant initiatives in various Latin American countries. In a region where the function and development of private higher education institutions is especially important, the focus of the AFIU's activities is on private universities' ability to provide trained business leaders with the skills necessary to meet the challenges of enterprise growth in these developing economies. She mentions in particular the strengthening of financing capabilities within the university, and the evolution of three-way partnerships among business corporations, AFIU, and universities in Latin America.

scholarly journals Democratic Values, Religiosity, and Support for Same-Sex Marriage in Latin America

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (4) ◽  
pp. 75-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle L. Dion ◽  
Jordi Díez
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Religious Values ◽  
Democratic Values ◽  
Same Sex ◽  
Same Sex Marriage ◽  
Same Sex Couples ◽  
Latin American Countries

AbstractLatin America has been at the forefront of the expansion of rights for same-sex couples. Proponents of same-sex marriage frame the issue as related to human rights and democratic deepening; opponents emphasize morality tied to religious values. Elite framing shapes public opinion when frames resonate with individuals’ values and the frame source is deemed credible. Using surveys in 18 Latin American countries in 2010 and 2012, this article demonstrates that democratic values are associated with support for same-sex marriage while religiosity reduces support, particularly among strong democrats. The tension between democratic and religious values is particularly salient for women, people who live outside the capital city, and people who came of age during or before democratization.

scholarly journals Life expectancy and mortality in 363 cities of Latin America

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Usama Bilal ◽  
◽  
Philipp Hessel ◽  
Carolina Perez-Ferrer ◽  
Yvonne L. Michael ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
Noncommunicable Diseases ◽  
Modifiable Factors ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Latin American Countries

AbstractThe concept of a so-called urban advantage in health ignores the possibility of heterogeneity in health outcomes across cities. Using a harmonized dataset from the SALURBAL project, we describe variability and predictors of life expectancy and proportionate mortality in 363 cities across nine Latin American countries. Life expectancy differed substantially across cities within the same country. Cause-specific mortality also varied across cities, with some causes of death (unintentional and violent injuries and deaths) showing large variation within countries, whereas other causes of death (communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional, cancer, cardiovascular disease and other noncommunicable diseases) varied substantially between countries. In multivariable mixed models, higher levels of education, water access and sanitation and less overcrowding were associated with longer life expectancy, a relatively lower proportion of communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional deaths and a higher proportion of deaths from cancer, cardiovascular disease and other noncommunicable diseases. These results highlight considerable heterogeneity in life expectancy and causes of death across cities of Latin America, revealing modifiable factors that could be amenable to urban policies aimed toward improving urban health in Latin America and more generally in other urban environments.

Public Distrust in Disputed Elections: Evidence from Latin America

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Victor Hernández-Huerta ◽  
Francisco Cantú
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Literature ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Multilevel Regression ◽  
Electoral Outcome ◽  
Strong Signal ◽  
Electoral Defeat ◽  
Negative Perceptions ◽  
Latin American Countries

Abstract The comparative literature on democratization has shown that election trust depends as much on subjective factors as on the objective conditions of the process. This literature, however, has thus far overlooked the consequences of candidates refusing to concede an electoral defeat. This letter argues that a disputed electoral outcome further inflames negative perceptions of electoral integrity among voters who supported a losing candidate. We bring support for this claim from a multilevel regression that includes data from the AmericasBarometer surveys on almost 100,000 respondents across 49 elections in 18 Latin American countries. We combine these responses with an original database of disputed elections in the region. The empirical findings demonstrate the eroding effect of challenged election outcomes on voters' election trust, particularly among those who voted for a losing candidate. The findings underscore an intuitive yet untested pattern: candidates' refusal to accept the electoral outcome is a strong signal among their supporters, increasing their distrust on the integrity of the process.

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